Thursday, November 5, 2015

Steve Spurrier Retires from South Carolina

Steve Spurrier recently retired as head football coach of the University of South Carolina Gamecocks.  Just as a reminder, Spurrier took over as head coach of the Gamecocks after Lou Holtz retired during the season in 2004.  So let's take a look at South Carolina since 2008, the first year that I have the data for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below is a chart of South Carolina's production ranking under Steve Spurrier using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  All rankings will be based on this model.  As you can tell the last season and a half at South Carolina has been below average.


2008
South Carolina finished the 2008 regular season at 7-5 and lost the Outback Bowl to  #9 ranked Iowa 10-31.  For the season as a whole, the Gamecocks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was their 31-24 victory over #18 Mississippi and their worst loss was 17-24 to #66 ranked Vanderbilt.  Overall, the Gamecock's had the #67 most productive college football team with the #97 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2009
The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 7-5 and finishing overall at 7-6 with a Pappajohns.com bowl loss to #46 Connecticut.  South Carolina played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was a 34-17 victory over #10 ranked Clemson and their worst game was a 37-41 loss was to #71 ranked Georgia.  Overall, the Gamecocks's had the #56 ranked team in terms of total production with the #89 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense; all improvements over the 2008 campaign.

2010
South Carolina had a third straight season of improvement with a 9-4 regular season but lost the Chick-fil-A bowl game 17-26 to #23 Florida State to finish 9-5. South Carolina again played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game was a 35-21 victory over #5 ranked Alabama and their worst game was a 28-31 loss to #59 ranked Kentucky.  South Carolina finished the season with the #31 ranked team in overall productivity with the #23 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense.  For the offensive minded Spurrier, this was the best offense during the 2008 - 2015 seasons.

2011  
The Gamecock's continued to improve under Spurrier and statistically, this is South Carolina's best season during this time period and also starts a three year period of excellent football at South Carolina. The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 10-2 and defeated #55 ranked Nebraska in the CapitalOne Bowl game 30-13 to finish overall 11-2.   South Carolina played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game was a 45-42 victory over #21 ranked Georgia and their worst game was a 13-16 loss was to #84 ranked Auburn.  South Carolina had the #11 ranked team in terms of total production with the #36 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.

2012  
The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 10-2 defeated #43 ranked Michigan 33-28 in the post season. South Carolina played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was again a 35-7 victory over #4 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was 21-23 to #14 ranked LSU.  Overall, South Carolina had the #20 ranked team with the #49 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense.

2013
In what was the third consecutive season of superior performance, the University of South Carolina Gamecocks finished the regular season again at 10-2 and defeated #9 Wisconsin in the bowl game to finish 11-2 overall.  The Gamecocks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their bowl victory over Wisconsin and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Tennessee.  Overall, South Carolina had the #14 ranked team with the #20 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense.
 
2014
After three top 20 seasons in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, the wheels on the bus start to fall off with South Carolina finishing the regular season at 6-6 and defeated #30 ranked Miami (FL) in their bowl game to end the season at 7-6.  South Carolina again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Gamecock's best game was a victory over #8 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Kentucky.  Overall, the Gamecocks had the #79 ranked team with the #66 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense.

2015
Steve Spurrier only made it through half of the regular season with a 2-4 record.  At the time of Spurrier's departure South Carolina played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game up to Spurrier's retirement was a victory over #39 ranked North Carolina and their worst loss was to (at the time) #89 ranked Kentucky.  At the time of Spurrier's retirement, South Carolina had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #115 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense.  With numbers like those ...

From 2008 to his retirement, Spurrier was 65-33 for a winning percentage of 66.33%.  In terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, the Gamecock's were an average offense during this time period and an above average defense.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian