2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model the University of Michigan Wolverines are still the number one ranked team in terms of the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Michigan
2	Washington
3	Ohio State
4	Alabama
5	Louisville
6	Colorado
7	Western Michigan
8	LSU
9	Auburn
10	Baylor
11	San Diego State
12	Florida
13	Clemson
14	Texas A&M
15	Toledo
16	Boise State
17	Miami (Florida)
18	Nebraska
19	Troy
20	Army
21	Virginia Tech
22	Minnesota
23	Houston
24	Louisiana Tech
25	Middle Tennessee

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #8
2016 Top 25 for Week #7
2016 Top 25 for Week #6
2016 Top 25 for Week #5
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

2016 MLB Regular Season Attendance Analysis

Today I will look at regular season home attendance in MLB.  To do so I grabbed the data from ESPN. First thing to note is that overall regular season attendance has decreased by over 600,000 fans from the 2015 regular season.  The biggest drop by far in home attendance was with Cincinnati (-525,421).  The next largest declines in home attendance were with Minnesota (-256,142), Pittsburgh (-249,575), Oakland (-246,669), Detroit (-232,189) and Milwaukee (-227,994).  But not all teams had lower attendance.  Some teams had increases and the largest was Toronto (+597,408), followed by the Chicago Cubs (+272,608), New York Mets (+219,849), Texas (+218,527) and Cleveland (+202,762).  So while total attendance is lower this regular season as compared to the 2015 regular season, is it statistically different from the previous regular season?  Last year I took a brief look at whether there was any statistical difference in home regular season attendance in MLB, and concluded that statistically, MLB attendance has not been different from one season to the next since 2005.

How can we determine if this season is really different from last season.  To answer this, let me lay out the process of how I will perform the statistical analysis and then make some conclusions.

First, I am going to look at regular season average home attendance for the 2015 and 2016 MLB season.  The reason I am looking at average attendance is that not all teams play the same number of home games from one season to the next and using the average is a much more accurate for comparing one season to another.

Second, I am going to use a t-test as the means to perform the analysis.  Here the t-test looks at the differences between attendance for two regular seasons average home attendance and allows us to judge the difference between their means relative to the variability of their regular season average home attendance.  You can quickly perform a t-test in Microsoft Excel =t.test(...).  I choose to use a two tailed test, since regular season average home attendance can increase and decrease as compared to the previous regular season.  I looked at both the paired test and the tests where the sample variance is both equal and unequal.  In each case, the result of the t-test is that it fails to accept (rejects) that regular season average home attendance is different between the two seasons.

So, while MLB attendance is lower by over 600,000 total fans, this season's regular season attendance is not significantly different from the 2015 regular season in terms of the differences in the means.  While this might not be a comfort to the Twins, Pirates, A's, Tigers and Brewers, it is not a sign that MLB is in significant trouble.

Tim DeRuyter Out at Fresno State

On October 23, 2016, Fresno State dismissed head football coach Tim DeRuyter two-thirds through his fifth season. DeRuyter finishes at 30-30 at the helm of the Bulldogs football program.  Former head coach DeRuyter was hired on December 14, 2011 after Pat Hill was fired in December.
 
So here is a look at the Fresno State Bulldogs football program with regard to the football teams productivity in relation to the rest of the "league" under head coach Tim DeRuyter (2012-2016*), For those interested, here are the contracts (PDF) for head coaches:  Pat Hill and Tim DeRuyter.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Fresno State Bulldogs football program during DeRuyter's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Fresno State has dropped substantially over the last two and a half seasons. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under DeRuyter are after the chart below.

Tim DeRuyter (2012 - 2016*)

2012
DeRuyter's first season as the new head football coach the Bulldogs finished the regular season at 9-3, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Fresno State was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  They lost the Hawai'i Bowl to #57 SMU 10-43.  Their best regulars season game was their victory over #52 San Diego State 52-40, and their worst regular season loss was to #25 ranked Tulsa (26-27).  Overall, Fresno State had the #11 ranked team with the #14 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  In terms of overall production, this was the best season under head coach DeRuyter, even thought the team won more games in the next season.

2013
In DeRuyter's second season as head football coach Fresno State finished the regular season at 11-1, playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Fresno State was within one to two standard deviation's above the "league's" average SOS.  They again lost their post season bowl game to the #34 ranked USC Trojans by a score of 20-45 in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, and finished overall at 11-2.  Their best regular season game was their 24-17 victory over #23 Utah State and their worst regular season loss was to #72 ranked San Jose State (52-62).  Overall, Fresno State had the #19 ranked team with the #7 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 6-6 and were again bowl eligible, even after their conference championship loss to #13 Boise State 14-28.  Fresno State again lost their bowl game, this time to #66 Rice in the Hawai'i Bowl by a score of 6-30.  This season the Bulldogs again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (24-13) over #55 ranked San Diego State, their worst regular season loss was to #125 ranked UNLV.  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #108 ranked team with the #72 ranked offense and the #121 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Fresno State finished the regular season overall at 3-9 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS and again were bowl ineligible.  The Bulldogs best game was a victory (31-28) was over #96 ranked UNLV and their worst loss (31-34) was to #73 Colorado State.  Fresno Sttae had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #114 ranked offense and the #107 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the time of head football coach's DeRuyter's departure, the Bulldogs were 1-7 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that their current strength of schedule is within one to two standard deviations below the "league's" average SOS.  To date, Fresno State's only win was over #FCS Sacremento State and their worst loss (22-27) was to currently ranked #97 Nevada.  Fresno State at the time of DeRuyter's departure had the #127 ranked team in total production (i.e. 2nd to worst in all of the FBS) with the #117 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
Purdue and Darrell Hazell
LSU and Les Miles
Florida International University and Ron Turner
Baylor and Art Briles

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model the University of Michigan Wolverines are now the number one ranked team in terms of the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.
 

Rank	Team
1	Michigan
2	Washington
3	Alabama
4	Ohio State
5	Louisville
6	Colorado
7	Auburn
8	Western Michigan
9	Baylor
10	Clemson
11	LSU
12	San Diego State
13	Toledo
14	Florida
15	Nebraska
16	Boise State
17	Virginia Tech
18	Army
19	Troy
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Houston
22	West Virginia
23	South Florida
24	Middle Tennessee
25	Texas A&M

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #7
2016 Top 25 for Week #6
2016 Top 25 for Week #5
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

Purdue Dismisses Head Football Coach Hazell

On October 15, 2016, Purdue dismissed head football coach Darrell Hazell halfway through his fourth season. Hazell finishes at 9-33 at the helm of the Boilermakers football program.  Former head coach Hazell was hired on December 5, 2012 after Danny Hope was fired in November 2012.  This is the second head football coaching change at Purdue since Joe Tiller left in 2008. 

So here is a look at the Purdue Boilermakers football program with regard to the football teams productivity in relation to the rest of the "league" under both former head coach Darrell Hazell (2013-2016*), Danny Hope (2009-2012) and the last year (2008) of head football coach Joe Tiller at the helm.  For those interested, here are the contracts (PDF) for all three coaches:  Joe Tiller, Danny Hope and Darrell Hazell.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Purdue University football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Purdue has been below average for most of this time period. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Hazell are after the chart below, as well as a look at Purdue under former head coach Danny Hope.

Darrell Hazell (2013 - 2016*)

2013
In Hazell's first season as the new head football coach the Boilermakers finished at 1-11, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Purdue was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the leagues average SOS.  Their best game was their (only) victory over #FCS Indiana State and their worst loss was to #97 ranked Illinois (16-20).  Overall, Purdue had the #115 ranked team with the #115 ranked offense and the #106 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
The Boilermakers finished the regular season at 3-9 and were again bowl ineligible.  The Boilermakers again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Purdue was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  This season the Boilermakers best game was a victory (43-34) over #36 ranked Western Michigan their worst loss was #94 ranked in-state rival Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket.  Overall, the Boilermakers had the #110 ranked team with the #114 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Purdue finished overall at 2-10 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS and again were bowl ineligible.  The Boilermakers best game was a victory (55-45) was over #79 ranked Nebraska and their worst loss(36-54) was again to #92 ranked in-state rival Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket.  Purdue had the #118 ranked team in total production with the #107 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Hazell's departure, the Boilermakers were 3-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  To date, Purdue's best win was an overtime conference win (34-31) over #38 ranked Illinois and their worst loss (20-38) was to #87 ranked Cincinnati.  Purdue at the time of Hazell's departure had the #109 ranked team in total production with the #108 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
LSU and Les Miles
Florida International University and Ron Turner
Baylor and Art Briles

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Washington is still the number one ranked team in terms of the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Washington
2	Michigan
3	Ohio State
4	Alabama
5	Miami (Florida)
6	Army
7	LSU
8	Baylor
9	Colorado
10	Louisville
11	Clemson
12	Florida
13	Western Michigan
14	Texas A&M
15	Boise State
16	Nebraska
17	South Florida
18	Troy
19	Virginia Tech
20	Memphis
21	San Diego State
22	Toledo
23	Old Dominion
24	Auburn
25	West Virginia

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #6
2016 Top 25 for Week #5
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Washington has taken over the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Washington
2	Michigan
3	Ohio State
4	Alabama
5	Louisville
6	Clemson
7	South Florida
8	Colorado
9	Texas A&M
10	Miami (Florida)
11	Houston
12	Western Michigan
13	Auburn
14	Virginia Tech
15	Nebraska
16	Toledo
17	Troy
18	Boise State
19	Florida
20	North Carolina State
21	Memphis
22	TCU
23	Texas Tech
24	LSU
25	Maryland

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #5
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

2016 MLB Payroll and Performance

Yesterday, I looked at how competitive MLB was using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance and today I want to look at the relationship (and its magnitude) between regular season MLB team payroll and MLB regular season team performance.  If you are interested in doing this type of analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to payroll and performance analysis.

After combining the data and performing the statistical analysis, one finds the following.  First, for the 2016 MLB regular season, there is a positive and statistically significant (t-statistic is greater than two in absolute value) relationship between team payroll and team performance.  In fact, the relationship is that an additional increase of ten million dollars in one teams payroll would move an average team (i.e. the Kansas City Royals) from a winning percentage of 0.500 to 0.509 and an additional increase in team payroll equal to the average team payroll ($126 million) would move the average performing team from 0.500 to 0.614, which is basically an increase in 18 wins over the regular season or almost $7 million for each additional win.  While for the average team this moves them from not making the playoffs to being a World Series contender, for teams like the Minnesota Twins, this moves them from being the worst team in MLB with a winning percent of 0.364 to a winning percent of 0.478 and still out of playoff contention.

Second, the performance of the regression is better than in years past, with the amount that the variation in team payroll "explains" the variation in team performance being around 39%.

2016 MLB Competitive Balance

With the MLB regular season in the books, let's take a look at a measure of competitive balance using Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.  The Noll-Scully uses the actual standard deviation of a league's winning percentage and compares it to a league if wins and losses were randomly determined in a statistical sense.  A Noll-Scully of 1.000 indicates wins and losses were randomly determined and thus the league is perfectly balanced in a competitive sense.  A Noll-Scully higher indicates that the league is less than perfectly balanced.  As the value increases the league is less competitive.

From the 2016 MLB regular season, we see that the American League had a competitive balance of 1.586 and the National League had a competitive balance of 1.713, meaning that the National League was less competitive than the American League.  Overall, MLB had a Noll-Scully of 1.657, which is slightly more competitive than the league average Noll-Sculy since 1982.

If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel. 

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Ohio State has moved back to the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Washington
3	Miami (Florida)
4	Louisville
5	Alabama
6	Michigan
7	Colorado
8	Houston
9	Maryland
10	South Florida
11	Clemson
12	Troy
13	Florida
14	Western Michigan
15	Texas A&M
16	Baylor
17	Memphis
18	Nebraska
19	Toledo
20	Southern Mississippi
21	Texas Tech
22	Army
23	Virginia Tech
24	Boise State
25	Middle Tennessee

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2