ESPN reports that Duke University has extended head football coach David Cutcliffe's contract through June 2019. Given the contract extension, let's take a look at how Duke's football team has performed using my FBS college football production model under Cutcliffe's tenure since taking the helm as Duke's head football coach in 2008.
In Cutcliffe's first season (2008) the Duke Blue Devils went 4-8. Duke's best outing was a 41-31 victory against #52 Navy; and their worst performance was a 17-27 loss to #78 North Carolina State. Duke finished the season as the #84 ranked college football team overall in FBS college football, with the #85 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense. Duke played a strength of schedule (SOS) of 62.67 which is almost exactly the average SOS for that season of a 62.79. Thus Duke ended up as a below average team playing an average strength of schedule.
The following season the Blue Devils went 5-7. The Blue Devils best game that season was a 49-28 victory over #71 North Carolina State, while their worst game was a 16-24 loss to FCS Richmond. The Blue Devils finished the season as the #80 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense. As you can see the Blue Devils improved a small amount from the 2008 season and the Blue Devils played a SOS of 69.00 against an average SOS of 63.27, which is about average for teams of that season (i.e. within one standard deviation of the average SOS).
In the 2010 season Duke finished 3-9 with Duke playing their best game winning 34-31 against the #42 ranked Navy, while Duke's worst performance was a 48-54 loss to #104 ranked Wake Forest. Duke's performance that season resulted in the team to finish the season as the #109 ranked team overall, with the #102 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense. In terms of the production model Duke's performance was worse in 2010 than in the previous two seasons.
The 2011 season saw Duke finish the season again at 3-9. This team saw Duke's best performance against #61 ranked Florida International University and their worse performance in terms of production was a 21-23 loss against FCS Richmond. The Blue Devils finished the season as the #113 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense. As you can see these last two seasons Duke was in the bottom sixth of the FBS college football.
For this season (2012), Duke is currently 6-5 being bowl eligible. Duke is currently the #88 ranked overall team in college football and currently had the #87 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense. Duke's best win this season was a 33-30 victory over currently #22 North Carolina Tar Heels and their worst loss was 41-20 to currently #78 ranked Virginia Tech. Duke has played a SOS of 60.54 as compared to the current average SOS of 67.58.
Thus since 2008, Duke's best performance in terms of team productivity was the 80th ranked team in FBS. Either way Duke has been below average for each of the last five seasons, and Duke extends their head football coaches contract, while Western Michigan fires their head football coach.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Monday, November 26, 2012
Chizik Fired from Auburn
Auburn University's head football coach Gene Chizik was fired yesterday. So let's take a look at Auburn during Chizik's tenure as the Tigers head football coach using my FBS college football production model.
Chizik was hired for the 2009 season and Auburn finished the regular season at 7-5 and won the Outback Bowl 38-35 in OT over Northwestern to finish the season at 8-5. During this season, Auburn's best win was over #23 ranked Tennessee Volunteers and their worst loss was to #70 ranked Georgia. Auburn finished the season (in terms of on-field production) as the #34 ranked team overall and the #16 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense playing against a strength of schedule of 58.15 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule for that season.
2010 was Auburn's national championship year, with Auburn going 12-0 in the regular season, winning the SEC championship over South Carolina 56-17 and defeating #3 ranked Oregon in the BCS championship game 22-19, with that game being Auburn's best win. In terms of production, the Tigers finished #10 ranked overall team and #2 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense. Again, Auburn played a strength of schedule that was within one standard deviation of the average FBS strength of schedule.
Last season (2011) was not as good a performance for Auburn, even though the Tigers finished the regular season 7-5 and were bowl eligible and the Tigers defeated the Virginia Cavaliers in the Chick-fil-A bowl 43-24. In terms of the model, Auburn was the #100 ranked team overall with the #62 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense, playing against a strength of schedule that again was average for FBS teams.
This season Auburn was bad the whole year. (I will put the week-by-week production numbers below). Auburn finished the season at 3-9 and will miss out on a bowl game. Auburn is currently the #106 ranked team in the nation (with only Kentucky as a worst productive team in the SEC), and Auburn is the #105 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense - all below average for FBS teams. Auburn's best win was against #48 ranked Louisianna-Monroe (by 3 points) and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Arkansas Razorbacks by 17 points. Auburn did play a tougher than average schedule this season even including the November 17th meeting against Alabama A&M.
Not one time this season does the model have Auburn cracking the top 100 teams in terms of production, with their current rank about the best they have done all season.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Chizik was hired for the 2009 season and Auburn finished the regular season at 7-5 and won the Outback Bowl 38-35 in OT over Northwestern to finish the season at 8-5. During this season, Auburn's best win was over #23 ranked Tennessee Volunteers and their worst loss was to #70 ranked Georgia. Auburn finished the season (in terms of on-field production) as the #34 ranked team overall and the #16 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense playing against a strength of schedule of 58.15 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule for that season.
2010 was Auburn's national championship year, with Auburn going 12-0 in the regular season, winning the SEC championship over South Carolina 56-17 and defeating #3 ranked Oregon in the BCS championship game 22-19, with that game being Auburn's best win. In terms of production, the Tigers finished #10 ranked overall team and #2 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense. Again, Auburn played a strength of schedule that was within one standard deviation of the average FBS strength of schedule.
Last season (2011) was not as good a performance for Auburn, even though the Tigers finished the regular season 7-5 and were bowl eligible and the Tigers defeated the Virginia Cavaliers in the Chick-fil-A bowl 43-24. In terms of the model, Auburn was the #100 ranked team overall with the #62 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense, playing against a strength of schedule that again was average for FBS teams.
This season Auburn was bad the whole year. (I will put the week-by-week production numbers below). Auburn finished the season at 3-9 and will miss out on a bowl game. Auburn is currently the #106 ranked team in the nation (with only Kentucky as a worst productive team in the SEC), and Auburn is the #105 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense - all below average for FBS teams. Auburn's best win was against #48 ranked Louisianna-Monroe (by 3 points) and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Arkansas Razorbacks by 17 points. Auburn did play a tougher than average schedule this season even including the November 17th meeting against Alabama A&M.
Not one time this season does the model have Auburn cracking the top 100 teams in terms of production, with their current rank about the best they have done all season.
| Week | Offense | Defense | Overall | |||
| 2 | 112 | 101 | 118 | |||
| 3 | 102 | 107 | 113 | |||
| 4 | 112 | 92 | 110 | |||
| 5 | 122 | 58 | 111 | |||
| 6 | 122 | 62 | 111 | |||
| 7 | 115 | 86 | 114 | |||
| 8 | 121 | 69 | 110 | |||
| 9 | 104 | 92 | 104 | |||
| 10 | 112 | 74 | 107 | |||
| 11 | 118 | 83 | 116 | |||
| 12 | 111 | 76 | 109 | |||
| 13 | 105 | 91 | 106 |
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
Here is the NCAA football bowl subdivision top 25 (in terms of on-field production) as of the end of week 13. As you can see Alabama has re-taken the #1 spot in terms of production, with Notre Dame as the #4 most productive team in the nation. Thanks to college football stats for posting the raw data. I will be blogging about the teams of the recent head coaching firings and extensions as the week progresses.
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Northern Illinois |
| 4 | Notre Dame |
| 5 | Florida State |
| 6 | Utah State |
| 7 | Georgia |
| 8 | Fresno State |
| 9 | Florida |
| 10 | Boise State |
| 11 | Ohio State |
| 12 | LSU |
| 13 | Cincinnati |
| 14 | Rutgers |
| 15 | San Jose State |
| 16 | Texas A&M |
| 17 | Kansas State |
| 18 | Nebraska |
| 19 | Stanford |
| 20 | Oklahoma |
| 21 | North Carolina |
| 22 | South Carolina |
| 23 | Clemson |
| 24 | BYU |
| 25 | Kent State |
Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Iron Bowl - 2012 Edition
For the last two seasons I have written about the Iron Bowl, so I thought that I would continue with one of the most fanatical games in college football. (For those interested here are the links for the Iron Bowl in 2010 and 2011).
Alabama is currently ranked in terms of college football productivity as the #2 team in FBS college football with the #21 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.
Auburn on the other hand is currently ranked #109 overall with the #111 offense and #76 ranked defense.
As you can no doubt guess the college football model has Alabama as a much more productive team than Auburn and I would expect that Alabama will be victorious over Auburn.
Alabama is currently ranked in terms of college football productivity as the #2 team in FBS college football with the #21 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.
Auburn on the other hand is currently ranked #109 overall with the #111 offense and #76 ranked defense.
As you can no doubt guess the college football model has Alabama as a much more productive team than Auburn and I would expect that Alabama will be victorious over Auburn.
Friday, November 23, 2012
California fires Jeff Tedford
ESPN reports that the California Golden Bears have fired their head football coach Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons as the head coach. So let's take a look at the Golden Bears through the lens of my college football production model since 2008 - even though Tedford has been at California much longer than that.
This season (2012) California finished 3-9 and bowl ineligible. California's best win this season was against currently #18 ranked UCLA and their worst loss was to currently #84 ranked Utah. The other two wins by the Golden Bears were to below average teams (ranked #63 to #124) and all of their other games were played against currently ranked above average teams. California has a strength of schedule of 47.58 which is currently almost twice as difficult as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football. California is currently the #100 ranked team overall with the currently #68 ranked offense and the currently #111 ranked defense.
In 2011 the Golden Bears finished at 7-5 in the regular season and 7-6 overall with a loss to the University of Texas in the Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl. The Golden Bears best win was against #49 Fresno State at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA. The Golden Bears had an overall rank of #80 with the 70th best offense and the 73rd best defense.
The 2010 season was slightly worse than the 2011 season in terms of wins with Cal going 5-7 overall and thus not qualifying for a bowl game. Cal's best win that season was against #61 Arizona State and their worst defeat was to the #87 Oregon State Beavers. Cal finished the season as the #65 ranked team overall and the #86 offense and the #26 defense.
In 2009 California finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to #22 Utah in their bowl game finishing the year at 8-5. California was the #35 overall ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense. California's best win was against #41 Arizona Wildcats and their worst loss was to the #75 Washington Huskies. California played a almost average strength of schedule of a 63.54 as compared to an average strength of schedule of 63.27.
Finally, (at least in terms of the data that I have for the model) in the 2008 season the California Golden Bears finished at 9-4 with their best win over #11 Oregon and their worst loss to #76 Maryland. California was the #14 most productive team in the nation that year with the #18 most productive offense and the #17 most productive defense.
Thus over the last five seasons we have seen a steady decline of the California Golden Bears in terms of overall productivity, and as a result California is now looking to replace their head football coach.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
This season (2012) California finished 3-9 and bowl ineligible. California's best win this season was against currently #18 ranked UCLA and their worst loss was to currently #84 ranked Utah. The other two wins by the Golden Bears were to below average teams (ranked #63 to #124) and all of their other games were played against currently ranked above average teams. California has a strength of schedule of 47.58 which is currently almost twice as difficult as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football. California is currently the #100 ranked team overall with the currently #68 ranked offense and the currently #111 ranked defense.
In 2011 the Golden Bears finished at 7-5 in the regular season and 7-6 overall with a loss to the University of Texas in the Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl. The Golden Bears best win was against #49 Fresno State at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA. The Golden Bears had an overall rank of #80 with the 70th best offense and the 73rd best defense.
The 2010 season was slightly worse than the 2011 season in terms of wins with Cal going 5-7 overall and thus not qualifying for a bowl game. Cal's best win that season was against #61 Arizona State and their worst defeat was to the #87 Oregon State Beavers. Cal finished the season as the #65 ranked team overall and the #86 offense and the #26 defense.
In 2009 California finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to #22 Utah in their bowl game finishing the year at 8-5. California was the #35 overall ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense. California's best win was against #41 Arizona Wildcats and their worst loss was to the #75 Washington Huskies. California played a almost average strength of schedule of a 63.54 as compared to an average strength of schedule of 63.27.
Finally, (at least in terms of the data that I have for the model) in the 2008 season the California Golden Bears finished at 9-4 with their best win over #11 Oregon and their worst loss to #76 Maryland. California was the #14 most productive team in the nation that year with the #18 most productive offense and the #17 most productive defense.
Thus over the last five seasons we have seen a steady decline of the California Golden Bears in terms of overall productivity, and as a result California is now looking to replace their head football coach.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Big Ten Conference Adds Maryland and Rutgers
Earlier this week the Big Ten conference has added the University of Maryland and Rutgers University to its members, bringing the conference up to fourteen universities for the 2014/15 academic year assuming Rutgers can get out of their contract with the Big East Conference. So let's take a look at both Maryland and Rutgers football teams in terms of the college football productivity model for this season through week 12.
The University of Maryland currently plays in the ACC conference and I wrote about Maryland after their former head football coach Ralph Friedgen's contract was bought out.. As of last Saturday Maryland was 4-7 and currently ranked #94 overall with their offense currently ranked #117 and their defense currently ranked #36 in FBS college football. Maryland has played a strength of schedule equal to 71.09 which is basically the same as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football. Maryland's best win so far has been a 27-20 victory over currently #87 ranked Virginia and their worst loss has been to 20-17 to currently ranked #106 Boston College. If we include both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten Conference for this season - making 14 teams, Maryland would be second to the bottom - with only Illinois being worse.
I will be blogging more on Maryland in late February of next year when I look at Maryland after Ralph Friedgen
Rutgers University currently plays in the Big East Conference and is 9-1 and currently ranked #14 overall with the currently #82 ranked offense and currently #2 ranked defense in all of FBS college football. Rutgers has played against a strength of schedule of 79.40 which is easier than the current average college football strength of schedule. Rutger's best win so far was a 10-3 win over currently #21 ranked Cincinnati and their only loss so far has been to currently #42 ranked Kent State. Including both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten standing for this year would have Rutgers as the 3rd highest Big Ten team.
The University of Maryland currently plays in the ACC conference and I wrote about Maryland after their former head football coach Ralph Friedgen's contract was bought out.. As of last Saturday Maryland was 4-7 and currently ranked #94 overall with their offense currently ranked #117 and their defense currently ranked #36 in FBS college football. Maryland has played a strength of schedule equal to 71.09 which is basically the same as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football. Maryland's best win so far has been a 27-20 victory over currently #87 ranked Virginia and their worst loss has been to 20-17 to currently ranked #106 Boston College. If we include both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten Conference for this season - making 14 teams, Maryland would be second to the bottom - with only Illinois being worse.
I will be blogging more on Maryland in late February of next year when I look at Maryland after Ralph Friedgen
Rutgers University currently plays in the Big East Conference and is 9-1 and currently ranked #14 overall with the currently #82 ranked offense and currently #2 ranked defense in all of FBS college football. Rutgers has played against a strength of schedule of 79.40 which is easier than the current average college football strength of schedule. Rutger's best win so far was a 10-3 win over currently #21 ranked Cincinnati and their only loss so far has been to currently #42 ranked Kent State. Including both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten standing for this year would have Rutgers as the 3rd highest Big Ten team.
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