Tuesday, November 17, 2015

NBA Salary Income Inequality since 2005

Now that the NBA season is well underway, I thought I would look at how equal (or unequal) NBA salaries are over the last few years.  To do that I collected the NBA salary data from ESPN and calculated the Gini coefficient for the league as a whole.  Results are listed in the table below by season, the number of players (n), the Gini coefficient and the total salary for all players in the league.

Season n
Gini
Total
2005-2006 394
0.4917
$1,619,154,926
2006-2007 409
0.5006
$1,697,883,876
2007-2008 415
0.5161
$1,817,073,513
2008-2009 413
0.5053
$2,002,564,767
2009-2010 428
0.5260
$1,972,670,023
2010-2011 450
0.5366
$1,964,987,905
2011-2012 501
0.5500
$2,013,125,239
2012-2013 541
0.5601
$2,062,073,682
2013-2014 391
0.5409
$1,786,979,523
2014-2015 431
0.5294
$1,903,052,600
2015-2016 407
0.5017
$2,126,853,179

As you can see the NBA has been fairly unequal in the distribution of salary among its members, but over the last few years, salary inequality has been decreasing in part reflecting the increase in average salary over the last few years.  For comparison purposes, the US Gini coefficient for 2014 is 0.480.  Below is a chart of the Gini coefficient in the NBA since the 2005-2006 season.

Monday, November 16, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  A new week and a new #1 team according to the Complex Invasion College Football production model.  This week it is Appalachian State! There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.


Rank Team
1 Appalachian State
2 Clemson
3 Baylor
4 Oklahoma
5 North Carolina
6 Oklahoma State
7 Navy
8 Iowa
9 Ohio State
10 Florida
11 Houston
12 Mississippi
13 LSU
14 Louisiana Tech
15 Stanford
16 USC
17 TCU
18 Florida State
19 Wisconsin
20 Western Kentucky
21 Michigan
22 Boise State
23 Air Force
24 San Diego State
25 Georgia Southern

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #10
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, November 9, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  Oklahoma is the new #1 team according to the Complex Invasion College Football production model.  There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Baylor
3 Clemson
4 Iowa
5 North Carolina
6 Appalachian State
7 Boise State
8 Mississippi State
9 Stanford
10 Oklahoma State
11 LSU
12 Wisconsin
13 Mississippi
14 Houston
15 Louisiana Tech
16 Alabama
17 TCU
18 Michigan
19 Florida
20 Air Force
21 Florida State
22 Notre Dame
23 Bowling Green
24 Western Kentucky
25 USC

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #9
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Steve Spurrier Retires from South Carolina

Steve Spurrier recently retired as head football coach of the University of South Carolina Gamecocks.  Just as a reminder, Spurrier took over as head coach of the Gamecocks after Lou Holtz retired during the season in 2004.  So let's take a look at South Carolina since 2008, the first year that I have the data for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below is a chart of South Carolina's production ranking under Steve Spurrier using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  All rankings will be based on this model.  As you can tell the last season and a half at South Carolina has been below average.


2008
South Carolina finished the 2008 regular season at 7-5 and lost the Outback Bowl to  #9 ranked Iowa 10-31.  For the season as a whole, the Gamecocks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was their 31-24 victory over #18 Mississippi and their worst loss was 17-24 to #66 ranked Vanderbilt.  Overall, the Gamecock's had the #67 most productive college football team with the #97 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2009
The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 7-5 and finishing overall at 7-6 with a Pappajohns.com bowl loss to #46 Connecticut.  South Carolina played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was a 34-17 victory over #10 ranked Clemson and their worst game was a 37-41 loss was to #71 ranked Georgia.  Overall, the Gamecocks's had the #56 ranked team in terms of total production with the #89 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense; all improvements over the 2008 campaign.

2010
South Carolina had a third straight season of improvement with a 9-4 regular season but lost the Chick-fil-A bowl game 17-26 to #23 Florida State to finish 9-5. South Carolina again played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game was a 35-21 victory over #5 ranked Alabama and their worst game was a 28-31 loss to #59 ranked Kentucky.  South Carolina finished the season with the #31 ranked team in overall productivity with the #23 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense.  For the offensive minded Spurrier, this was the best offense during the 2008 - 2015 seasons.

2011  
The Gamecock's continued to improve under Spurrier and statistically, this is South Carolina's best season during this time period and also starts a three year period of excellent football at South Carolina. The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 10-2 and defeated #55 ranked Nebraska in the CapitalOne Bowl game 30-13 to finish overall 11-2.   South Carolina played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game was a 45-42 victory over #21 ranked Georgia and their worst game was a 13-16 loss was to #84 ranked Auburn.  South Carolina had the #11 ranked team in terms of total production with the #36 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.

2012  
The Gamecocks finished the regular season at 10-2 defeated #43 ranked Michigan 33-28 in the post season. South Carolina played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  South Carolina's best game was again a 35-7 victory over #4 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was 21-23 to #14 ranked LSU.  Overall, South Carolina had the #20 ranked team with the #49 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense.

2013
In what was the third consecutive season of superior performance, the University of South Carolina Gamecocks finished the regular season again at 10-2 and defeated #9 Wisconsin in the bowl game to finish 11-2 overall.  The Gamecocks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their bowl victory over Wisconsin and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Tennessee.  Overall, South Carolina had the #14 ranked team with the #20 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense.
 
2014
After three top 20 seasons in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, the wheels on the bus start to fall off with South Carolina finishing the regular season at 6-6 and defeated #30 ranked Miami (FL) in their bowl game to end the season at 7-6.  South Carolina again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Gamecock's best game was a victory over #8 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Kentucky.  Overall, the Gamecocks had the #79 ranked team with the #66 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense.

2015
Steve Spurrier only made it through half of the regular season with a 2-4 record.  At the time of Spurrier's departure South Carolina played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Gamecock's best game up to Spurrier's retirement was a victory over #39 ranked North Carolina and their worst loss was to (at the time) #89 ranked Kentucky.  At the time of Spurrier's retirement, South Carolina had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #115 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense.  With numbers like those ...

From 2008 to his retirement, Spurrier was 65-33 for a winning percentage of 66.33%.  In terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, the Gamecock's were an average offense during this time period and an above average defense.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Steve Sarkisian Relieved of Head Coaching Duties at USC

USC has fired Steve Sarkisian after allegations of alcohol abuse have emerged.  So given this very sad event, I thought I would continue to look at these teams as head football coaches change.  I have written about USC after Lane Kiffin was let go at the end of September 2013.  Hence, this is more of an update on USC's program since Kiffin's firing.  Below is a chart of USC's production rank using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  All rankings will be based on this model.


 Pete Carroll final two seasons as head football coach

2008
I do not have all the data to run the model before the 2008 season, so I am unable to show how USC performed in the previous seasons with head coach Carroll.  As such, I can only evaluate based on the data that I have and the model that I am using is the same since the 2008 season.  That said, USC finished the 2008 regular season at 11-1.  USC was bowl eligible and defeated #4 ranked Penn State 38-24 in the Rose Bowl.  USC played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  USC's best game was their Rose Bowl victory over #4 Penn State and their only loss was 21-27 to #28 ranked Oregon State.  Overall, the Trojan's had the #2 most productive college football team with the #12 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.

2009
In what ends up as Pete Carroll's final season as head football coach for USC, the Trojans finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was a 18-15 victory over #9 ranked Ohio State and their worst game was a 13-16 loss was to #75 ranked Washington.  Overall, the Trojan's had the #31 ranked team in terms of total production with the #33 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.  This was Pete Carroll's final season with USC, as head football coach Carroll took the Seattle Seahawks head football coaching job after the season ended.


2010
USC enters the 2010 season on a two year bowl ban and with a new head coach, Lane Kiffin.  USC
finished the regular season at 8-5 while playing against a "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was a 49-36 victory over #13 ranked Hawai'i and their worst game was a consecutive loss to #87 ranked Washington.  USC finished the season with the #52 ranked team in overall productivity with the #42 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.

2011
In Kiffin's second season as head football coach the Trojans finished at 10-2.   USC played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was a 38-35 victory over #8 ranked Oregon and their worst game was a 22-43 loss was to #62 ranked Arizona State.  USC had the #27 ranked team in terms of total production with the #16 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense.

2012
The Trojans finished the regular season at 7-5 with a bowl loss to #50 Georgia Tech. USC played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was a 38-17 victory over #24 ranked Arizona State and their worst loss was to #61 ranked Arizona 36-39.  Overall, the Trojans had the #46 ranked team with the #42 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.

2013

Lane Kiffin only lasted five games into the 2013 season (3-2).  USC finished the regular season at 9-4 and defeated #19 Fresno State in the bowl game. and played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was their bowl victory over Fresno State and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Washington.  Overall, the Trojans had the #34 ranked team with the #38 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.


Steve Sarkisian (2014 - 2015) as head football coach

2014
USC hires Steve Sarkisian away from Washington for the 2014 season. USC finished the regular season at 8-4 and defeated #40 ranked Nebraska in their bowl game to end the season at 9-4.  USC again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Trojan's best game was a victory over #20 ranked Stanford and their worst loss was to #62 ranked Utah.  Overall, the Trojans had the #26 ranked team with the #27 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.

2015

Steve Sarkisian only made it through half of the regular season with a 3-2 record.  At the time of Sarkisian's departure USC played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Trojan's best game was a victory over (at the time) #44 ranked Arizona State and their worst loss was to (at the time) #36 ranked Stanford.  At the time of Sarkisian's departure USC had the #7 ranked team in total production with the #23 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

North Texas Under Dan McCarney

North Texas fired their head football coach a few weeks ago after a disappointing loss to FCS Portland State.  Continuing with the evaluation of NCAA FBS teams after a coaching change, I will look at the North Texas Mean Green beginning with the 2008 season up to the end of Dan McCarney's tenure.  McCarney took over as the head football coach in 2011.

Below is a chart of the University of North Texas offense, defense and total production rankings since 2008 along with the rank of the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during the time period.  As you can see the University of North Texas Mean Green have not been above average except for one season with Dan McCarney as head football coach since the 2008 season.  More information from the model is presented below.




Todd Dodge (2007 - 2010) as head football coach

2008
In head coach Dodge's second season (contract here), North Texas finished the regular season at 1-11 and bowl ineligible playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Mean Green's only victory was over #99 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Louisiana Monroe.  Overall, the Mean Green had the #119 most productive college football team with the #107 ranked offense and the #120 ranked defense.

2009
North Texas finished the regular season at 2-10 and played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "leagues" average SOS.  The Mean Green's best game was a victory over #110 ranked Ball State and their worst loss was to #111 ranked Florida International University.  Overall, the Mean Green's had the #99 ranked team in terms of total production with the #74 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense.

2010
Head coach Dodge's was fired midway through the season with a record of 1-6, North Texas finished 3-9 while again playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Mean Green's best game was a victory over #74 ranked Middle Tennessee State and their worst loss was to #105 ranked Rice.  North Texas finished the season with the #80 ranked team in overall productivity with the #84 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense.


Dan McCarney (2011 - 2015) as head football coach

2011
North Texas hired Dan McCarney in 2011.  McCarney's first season as head football coach the resulted in the Mean Green finishing at 5-7.   North Texas played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Mean Green's best game was a 38-21 victory over #71 ranked Louisiana Monroe and their worst loss was to #87 ranked Western Kentucky 21-31.  The Mean Green's had the #91 ranked team in terms of total production with the #75 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense.

2012
In McCarney's second season as head football coach the Mean Green finished at 4-8 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Mean Green's best game was a 30-23 victory over #51 ranked Louisiana Lafayette and their worst game was a 21-44 loss was to #85 ranked Houston.  Overall, North Texas had the #95 ranked team with the #91 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.

2013
North Texas finished the regular season at 8-4 and finished overall at 9-4 with a bowl victory over #76 ranked UNLV while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning the the Mean Green's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS.  The Mean Green's best game was a 34-27 victory over #21 ranked Ball State and their worst game was a 21-27 loss was to #82 ranked Ohio.  Overall, the Mean Green had the #33 ranked team with the #42 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense.

2014
North Texas amended head coach McCarney's contract in 2014 after the success during the previous season. North Texas finished the regular season at 4-8 and out of playoff contention.  The Mean Green again played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Mean Green's best game was a 17-14 victory over #82 ranked Florida International University and their worst game was a 20-30 loss was to #123 ranked Southern Mississippi.  Overall, the Mean Green had the #97 ranked team with the #103 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense.

2015
McCarney only made it through half of the regular season with a 0-6 record.  At the time of McCarney's departure North Texas played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Mean Green's worst loss was to FCS Portland State.  At the time of McCarney's departure North Texas had the #128 (WORST) ranked team in total production with the #128 (WORST) ranked offense and the #126 (3rd worst) ranked defense.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall

Monday, November 2, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  The Baylor Bears remain as the #1 team according to the Complex Invasion College Football production model.  There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Boise State
3 Clemson
4 TCU
5 Oklahoma
6 Houston
7 Mississippi
8 Oklahoma State
9 Appalachian State
10 Wisconsin
11 Iowa
12 Louisiana Tech
13 Ohio State
14 Cincinnati
15 Florida State
16 Memphis
17 Bowling Green
18 Stanford
19 North Carolina
20 LSU
21 Florida
22 Western Kentucky
23 Mississippi State
24 Duke
25 Alabama

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #8
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2