NCAA Athletic Department Revenues

Today I am looking at the financial side of NCAA athletic departments using USA Today's NCAA athletic department database from 2006 to 2011.  USA Today reports ticket sales revenue, student fee revenue, school fund revenue, contribution revenue, rights & licensing revenue, other revenue and total revenue during this time period.

Please note that the USA Today NCAA athletic department database does not cover all FBS or non-FBS schools.  One of the reasons is that private schools like Notre Dame and Stanford do not have to publish their financial athletic department data like most public athletic departments.

I am interested in whether two different types of athletic departments - athletic departments in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and athletic departments outside of the Football Bowl Subdivision (non-FBS) - have different levels of revenue among other things.  Thus I have separated the data into these two groups for the analysis below.

Here are a few questions (and answers) I want to investigate about NCAA athletic departments covered in the USA Today database.

What is the average revenue at FBS and non-FBS athletic departments for the 2011 season?

First, I have added one more revenue variable to the USA Today NCAA Athletic Department Financial Database - Generate Revenue.  Generated Revenue is the amount of revenue that athletic department create by creating athletic events as opposed to revenue that athletic departments receive by being part of a college or university.  In the latter case, schools transfer funds from one part of the university to the athletic department independent of economic activity produced by the athletic department.  Economist usually refer to this as a subsidy.  For my calculations, the NCAA athletic department subsidy is equal to Student Fees plus School Funds.  Thus Generated Revenue = Total Revenue minus Student Fees minus School Funds.

Focusing on the most recent time period in the database, we see that average revenue for these various revenue streams are quite a bit different for the two types of NCAA schools.

2011	FBS		non-FBS
Ticket Sales	$12,866,227		$651,601
Student Fees	$4,053,653		$4,368,336
School Funds	$5,843,586		$4,997,387
Contributions	$11,511,685		$959,824
Rights & Licensing	$16,337,623		$1,028,285
Other Revenue	$4,125,049		$943,802
Total Revenue	$54,737,824		$12,949,236
Generated Revenue	$44,429,462		$3,583,512

How much are athletic departments subsidized at FBS and non-FBS athletic departments?

As you can see in the table above, for the two revenue streams that are non-generated (or a subsidy):  student fees and school funds have similar average revenues between FBS and non-FBS schools.  Combined FBS schools receive an average of $9,897,240 of non-generated revenues and non-FBS schools receive an average of $9,365,724 of non-generated revenues.

Which (if any) revenues streams at FBS and non-FBS athletic departments are significantly different from each other?

The numbers in the table above are average revenues for each revenue stream for FBS and non-FBS schools in the USA Today database.  While many of the averages between FBS and non-FBS schools are different from each other, what I want to know is which (if any) revenue streams are different in a statistical sense.  To do that, I will use a t-test assuming that FBS and non-FBS average revenues have unequal variances, which is called a Welch's t test.

Running the Welch's t test, I find that all of the generated revenues are statistically different from each other in FBS and non-FBS schools at the 99% confidence level.  This result holds for all generated revenue streams (Ticket Sales, Contributions, Rights & Licensing, Other Revenue, Total Revenue - including the subsidies, and Generated Revenue - the sum of Ticket Sales, Contributions, Rights & Licensing and Other Revenue) since 2006!  FBS and non-FBS schools in the USA Today database average generated revenues are different from each other at the 99% confidence level!

With respect to the non-generated revenues (Student Fees and School Funds) I find that BOTH of the non-generated revenues are NOT statistically different from each other between FBS and non-FBS schools at the 95% confidence level and this same result holds since 2006 between the two groups of athletic departments.

Athlete Markets

Fantex has recently started a market in professional athletes, where one can buy stock in a player's future earnings.  As we note in our book The Wages of Wins, professional athletes tend to be "consistently inconsistent" in terms of on-field performance, but in terms of salaries they tend to be rather more consistent - generally.  One of the problems with this model is that NFL players do not have guaranteed contracts like NBA players, so this might be one of the incentives that NFL players like Arian Foster have to sell off part of their future earnings.

Fantex plans on setting up a trading market where current holders of a players stock can sell to anyone willing to buy that players stock - just like any other stock exchange.  I guess next will be futures options (calls and puts) and then derivatives.

Fantex signs a second athlete - Vernon Davis.

2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10

We have a new number one team in the Top 25 NCAA FBS Ranking in terms of productivity using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model - Oregon has jumped over Baylor to take the top spot, but it is still rather close.

Some surprises with respect to the conventional wisdom: Texas A&M, Missouri, and LSU are all ranked ahead of Alabama; Wisconsin's has dropped with a win over Iowa; ditto with Michigan State defeating Michigan; and Northern Illinois, Ball State and Utah State are ranked above Clemson in terms of productivity.

These NCAA FBS Top 25 rankings are based on regression analysis using the data posted at College Football Statistics based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Rank	Team
1	Oregon
2	Baylor
3	Florida State
4	Ohio State
5	Louisville
6	Texas A&M
7	Missouri
8	LSU
9	Alabama
10	Northern Illinois
11	Houston
12	Wisconsin
13	Ball State
14	Utah State
15	Michigan State
16	Arizona State
17	Auburn
18	Cincinnati
19	Clemson
20	Marshall
21	Oregon State
22	Miami (Florida)
23	Washington
24	Fresno State
25	UCLA

Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

MLB Payroll Tax for 2013

The USA Today reports that only the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are subject to MLB's payroll tax for this past season.  Also as you read farther in the article, the author gives a lot of anecdotal evidence as to the limited link between payroll and performance - a subject that Dave, Marty and I have written about.

Speculation on Houston Nutt Coaching at UConn

According to College Football Talk, UConn is interested in Houston Nutt as the new head football coach. So given there has been some interest among readers of this blog about the head coaching situation at UConn, I thought that I would at a look at the Mississippi (or Ole Miss) Rebels while Houston Nutt was the head coach.  Unfortunately the data that I use only goes back to the 2008 season, so this is the exact time that coach Nutt was with the Mississippi Rebels, but does not cover his entire coaching career.  Thus with that caveat on the table, here is the last four seasons of Houston Nutt's coaching career in reverse chronological order using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
In Houston Nutt's last season as head football coach with the Rebels, Ole Miss finished 2-10.  Mississippi was the #115 (out of 120) ranked NCAA FBS team in overall production, with the #117 ranked offense and the #107 ranked defense.  Mississippi's best victory was a 38-28 victory over #92 ranked Fresno State University and the Rebel's worst performance was a 13-30 loss to #102 ranked Kentucky Wildcats.  The Rebels played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) of 49.33 given the Rebels schedule was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" SOS of 63.24.

2010
The Rebels finished the regular season at 4-8.  Mississippi was the #79 ranked team in terms of overall productivity; with the #74 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense.  The Rebels best game was a 35-28 victory of #59 ranked Kentucky and their worst game was a 48-49 loss to FCS Jacksonville State.  In terms of their schedule, Mississippi played against a SOS of 59.00, which is "average" as compared to the "league" average SOS of 63.10.

2009
Mississippi again finished the regular season at 8-4 and bowl eligible defeating #42 Oklahoma State to finish the season at 9-4.  The Rebel's best win was over #22 ranked Tennessee and of their worst loss was to #87 Mississippi State all against a SOS that was average compared to the "league".  In terms of overall production, Mississippi was the #29 ranked team with the #47 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense.

2008 
In Houston Nutt's first season at the helm of the Mississippi Rebels they finished the regular season bowl eligible at 8-4 and won their bowl game over #10 ranked Texas Tech to finish with a winning record at 9-4.  The Rebels were the #18 ranked team in overall productivity with the #26 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense, while playing against an average SOS as compared to the "league".  The Rebels best performance was against #1 ranked Florida in the end of season rankings and their worst loss was to #67 ranked South Carolina the following week.

As you can see there were some very good years under coach Nutt.  Whether that was due to the hand that he inherited or was due to his coaching skill is an open question.  The dramatic fall of the team does raise some questions on his coaching resume and a serious question for an administration looking to hire a new head coach.  Yet, the positives are there and for a team that was willing to take a chance on a well known individual, this might be a chance worth taking.  In today's coaching carousel, given the UConn's program current state a few years with a coach that has the skills that Nutt has may not be that great of a risk.

Here is my an analysis of UConn up the the firing of coach Pasquolini.

Florida Atlantic University Head Football Coach Resigns

The Sun-Sentinel reports that Florida Atlantic University head football coach Carl Pelini (and defensive coordinator Pete Rekstis) have resigned over allegations of illegal drug use. According to College Football Talk, this could result in Carl Pelini paying $500,000 in damages - if pursued by FAU.  While there is a great deal of speculation with regard to this unfortunate incident, let's take a look at the Florida Atlantic University Owls under now former head football coach Carl Pelini's who was hired at the end of the 2011 season and also take a look at the Owls during Howard Schnellenberger's last four seasons (2008-2011) as the Owls head coach. (I am stopping the analysis in the approximated last third of Schnellenberger's tenure at FAU since that is as far back as I have complete data to analyze team performance using the model at hand).

For a quick look at the Owls in terms of total team production ranking, offensive production ranking and defensive production ranking take a look at the graph below.

A more detailed analysis of the Florida Atlantic Owls follows below using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of last weekend Florida Atlantic was 2-6 with their best win (win over highest currently ranked opponent) over #92 University of Alabama-Birmingham and their worst loss (loss to lowest currently ranked opponent) to #86 ranked Middle Tennessee State.  FAU is ranked as the #101 team in overall productivity (out of 125) with the #105 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense.  The Owls have played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 54.75 which was "tougher" than the average schedule to date for the "league".  A teams SOS is "tougher" if it is lower than between one and two standard deviations from the average "league" SOS, which is currently the case.

2012
In former head coach Carl Pelini's first season at the helm of the FAU Owls, the Owls finished 3-9 and were the #110 ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #112 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense against an average SOS of 66.08.  The Owls best game was a 37-28 home win over #56 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst performance was a 34-37 loss to #112 South Alabama.
 
2011
In Howard Schnellenberger's last season as head football coach the Owls finished 1-11.  Florida Atlantic was the #120 (out of 124) ranked NCAA FBS team in overall production, with the dead last ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense.  Florida Atlantic's best (and only) victory was a 38-35 victory over #117 ranked UAB and the Owls' worst performance was a 14-38 loss to #118 ranked Middle Tennessee State.  The Owls played against an easier SOS of 72.42 as compared to the "league" SOS of 63.24.

2010
The Owls finished the regular season at 4-8.  The Owls were the #98 ranked team in terms of overall productivity; with the #109 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense.  The Owls played against a SOS of 74.92, which is easier (i.e. between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS of 63.10).

2009
Florida Atlantic finished the season at 5-7.  FAU's best win was over #87 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette and of their worst loss was to #105 Wyoming all against a SOS that was easier than the average SOS for the "league".  In terms of overall production, Florida Atlantic University was the #85 ranked team with the #50 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense.

2008
The Florida Atlantic University Owls finished the regular season bowl eligible at 6-6 and won their bowl game over #63 ranked Central Michigan to finish with a winning record at 7-6.  The Owls were the #82 ranked team in overall productivity with the #48 ranked offense and the #103 ranked defense, while playing against an easier SOS as compared to the "league".  The Owls best performance was against #63 ranked Central Michigan and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Middle Tennessee State.

This is the fourth NCAA FBS head football coaching change to date (that I know).  Here is the analysis of the previous coaching changes this season using the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen

Wyoming Changes Defensive Coordinator

ESPN reports that the University of Wyoming Cowboys have replaced defensive coordinator Chris Tormey with Jamar Cain.  This season the Wyoming Cowboys are a team of contrasts, with a very productive offense and a rather weak defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  If Wyoming's defense was better this team could be a BCS buster - their offense is that good.  Yet, losses to Texas State (better than many think), my alma mater - Colorado State and last week to San Jose State seem to be reasons for the change.  The next four games - only the Hawaii game seems to be a likely win as Fresno State, Boise State and Utah State all match up well with Wyoming.

Here is a graph of Wyoming's total rank, offensive rank and defensive rank using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Here is Wyoming's regular season schedule, with their results and weekly total, offensive and defensive rankings for each week.  Note that Wyoming's best defensive rank was during their bye week on October 5th.

Opponent	Date	Venue	PF	PA	Result	Total Rank	Off Rank	Def Rank
Nebraska	8/31/2013	Away	34	37	LOSS	-----	-----	-----
Idaho	9/7/2013	Home	42	10	WON	16	5	78
Northern Colo.	9/14/2013	Home	35	7	WON	21	5	77
Air Force	9/21/2013	Away	56	23	WON	13	5	61
Texas St.	9/28/2013	Away	21	42	LOSS	36	7	94
	10/5/2013					30	13	59
New Mexico	10/12/2013	Home	38	31	WON	26	12	70
Colorado St.	10/19/2013	Home	22	52	LOSS	26	5	93
San Jose St.	10/26/2013	Away	44	51	LOSS	53	14	111
	11/2/2013
Fresno St.	11/9/2013	Home
Boise St.	11/16/2013	Away
Hawaii	11/23/2013	Home
Utah St.	11/30/2013	Away

Here is yesterday's analysis of UAB's replacement of their defensive coordinator earlier this month.