2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8

Here is the latest NCAA FBS rankings using on-field production, which is based on team's acquiring possession and keeping their opponents from acquiring the ball, how well team's move the ball and how well they keep their opponent from moving the ball, how well they maintain possession of the ball and how well they keep their opponent from maintaining possession of the ball and the teams scoring efficiency and their opponents scoring efficiency and then I make a conference adjustment if statistically relevant.

These NCAA FBS Top 25 rankings are based on regression analysis using the data posted at College Football Statistics based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which I have outlined above.

Rank	Team
1	Baylor
2	Oregon
3	Louisville
4	Florida State
5	Arizona State
6	Oregon State
7	Wisconsin
8	Oklahoma State
9	Alabama
10	UCLA
11	Miami (Florida)
12	Utah State
13	Texas Tech
14	Missouri
15	Fresno State
16	Arizona
17	Boise State
18	Ohio State
19	Stanford
20	Oklahoma
21	Texas
22	Washington
23	Cincinnati
24	Houston
25	Michigan State

So one may ask given that Louisville lost last week why they did not drop and that Clemson did lose last week, that they completely dropped from the top 25?  My answer is that the production model is based on total offense and defense production relative to the other teams in the "league".  Hence, Louisville's loss was a close difference where Clemson's loss was not as close in terms of relative production, so Louisville has dropped in terms of their totals and Florida State has risen in terms of their totals, but Louisville has not dropped enough for Florida State to jump over them (but are really close).

Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

2013 MLB Payroll and Performance

Continuing with Major League Baseball today:  is team payroll the most important driver of on-field team performance?   Historically (1988 - 2011) MLB's payroll and performance relationship has been statistically significant, but not that strong (common variation between relative payroll and winning percent is less than 20%).  So I decided to grab the MLB payroll data from USA Today and ran the regression examining payroll and performance for just the 2013 MLB regular season.   How do you do this?  Here is a step-by-step guide.

Admittedly, one season is a small sample (30 observations), but what I find is that payroll "explains" about 7.7% of performance (using the adjusted r-squared) and that payroll itself is statistically significant at only the 90% confidence level - (i.e. t-stat is less than two in absolute value).  Typically I would conclude that if the t-stat is less than two in absolute value (as is the case here), that the independent variable (payroll) is statistically insignificant (i.e. statistically is zero - thus having zero effect). Yet even if you are OK with the weak statistically significant results, the last nail in the coffin is the very weak impact that payroll has on winning percent for 2013.  So, if there was a $100 million increase in payroll that would only increase wins by 8.72.  Since more than half of the teams spent less than $100 million in total last year, this is a rather large increase in spending to achieve an increase in winning percent of approximately 0.05 more towards winning percent.

MLB Competitive Balance for 2013

Changing gears for today I analyze the level of competitive balance for Major League Baseball during the 2013 regular season.  Using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance reveals that MLB was similarly balanced this season compared to recent history, with the NL having a Noll-Scully = 1.69, the AL having a Noll-Scully = 2.07 and a combined Noll-Scully = 1.89.

I am using the standard deviation of a population as opposed to the standard deviation for a sample in the calculations above.  If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel.

2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7

Here is the latest rankings with all the games from week #7 completed.  The rankings have not changed a great amount.  These NCAA FBS Top 25 rankings are based on regression analysis using the data posted at College Football Statistics based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model .

Rank	Team
1	Baylor
2	Oregon
3	Louisville
4	Florida State
5	Miami (Florida)
6	Wisconsin
7	UCLA
8	Alabama
9	Clemson
10	Ohio State
11	Houston
12	Texas Tech
13	Oklahoma State
14	LSU
15	Missouri
16	Michigan State
17	Cincinnati
18	UCF
19	Washington
20	Arizona State
21	Texas A&M
22	Iowa
23	Oregon State
24	Virginia Tech
25	Oklahoma

Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Red River Rivalry 2013

Today marks the renewal of the Red River rivalry between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns.  I have written about Texas this season here and here.  So here is a quick analysis of the two teams through last week using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

AP #12 / USA Today #10: Oklahoma Sooners vs. unranked: Texas Longhorns
Oklahoma (5-0) is currently ranked using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model as the #16 ranked most productive team in the football bowl subdivision with the #31 ranked most productive offense and the #15 ranked most productive defense.  The Sooners are (1-0) against teams currently that are above average in terms of production (TCU).  OU has played an average strength of schedule or SOS (SOS = 85.80 which is within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS).

Texas (3-2) is currently ranked using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model as the #41 ranked most productive team overall with the #25 ranked most productive offense and the #66 ranked most productive defense.  The Longhorns are (2-0) against above average teams using the production model (Kansas St. and Iowa St.) and has played an average SOS of 77.00.

NCAA FBS Bowl Games

From the "if you build it..." perspective, ESPN reports that there will be 39 bowl games at the end of the 2014 NCAA FBS season, meaning that there will need to be 78 teams with at least six victories (unless you allow those with a losing record to go bowling).

Miami of Ohio Fires Don Treadwell

ESPN reports that Miami of Ohio has fired head football coach Don Treadwell and offensive coordinator John Klacik, after an 0-5 start of the season.  Miami of Ohio is the third university this season to fire their head football coach, with USC first letting Lane Kiffin go and then UConn relieving Paul Pasqualoni of their head coaching duties.

As I did for last week's coaching causalties, let's take a look at the Miami (OH) RedHawks under former head football coach Don Treadwell's tenure (2011-2013) and also take a look at the RedHawks during the previous three seasons under head coach Michael Haywood during the 2009 and 2010 seasons and Shane Montgomery during his last season as head football coach in the 2008 season.  For a quick look at the Redhawks, take a look at the graph below.  A more detailed analysis of the Miami (OH) Redhawks follows below using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of last weekend Miami of Ohio was 0-5 with their worst loss to #116 ranked Central Michigan.  Miami (OH) was ranked as the #121 team in overall productivity (out of 125) with the #121 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense.  The Redhawks played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 58.00 which was "tougher" than the average schedule to date for the "league".  Again, a teams SOS is "tougher" if it is lower than between one and two standard deviations from the average "league" SOS, which is currently the case.  Given the Redhawks poor productivity, this seems to be a large reason why Miami of Ohio administrator's let Don Treadwell go.

2012
In 2012, the Redhawk's finished again at 4-8 and was the #114 ranked team in terms of overall productivity with the #103 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense against an average SOS of 63.08.  The Redhawks best game was a 23-20 home win over #54 ranked Ohio and their worst performance was a 16-30 loss to #83 Central Michigan.

2011
In Don Treadwell's first season as head football coach the Redhawks finished 4-8.  Miami (OH) was the #75 ranked most productive team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.  Miami of Ohio best victory was a 35-28 victory over #77 ranked Army and the Redhawk's worst performance was a 23-29 loss to #104 ranked Minnesota Gophers against an average SOS of 62.33 as compared to the "league" SOS of 64.29.

2010
In what was coach Haywood's final season at Miami (OH), the Redhawks finished the regular season at 8-4, and won the MidAmerican Conference championship game by defeating #8 ranked Northern Illinois and then defeated the #74 ranked Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in the Go Daddy Bowl to finish at 10-4 overall.  The Redhawks were the #54 ranked team in terms of overall productivity; with the #61 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense.  The Redhawks played against a SOS of 71.21, which is average.

2009
In Michael Haywood's inaugural season at Miami (OH) they finished the season at 1-11.  Miami of Ohio only win was over #96 ranked Toledo and of their eleven losses the worst was to #93 Western Michigan all against a SOS that average.  In terms of overall production, Miami of Ohio was the #121 ranked team with the #119 ranked offense and the #117 ranked defense.  All in all, a season to forget.

2008
In the last year with head coach Shane Montgomery, Miami of Ohio finished their season at 2-10.  The Redhawks was the #112 ranked team in overall productivity with the #105 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense, while playing against an average SOS as compared to the league.  The Redhawks best performance was against $53 ranked Bowling Green and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Toledo.