Head football coach Charlie Strong received a new seven year contact, that extends his existing contract that ended in 2015, to now go through June 2018. As usual, that got me to thinking about how Louisville has fared under head coach Strong. Coach Strong started at the University of Louisville in 2009, so that is were I start as well with Louisville Cardinals.
In 2009, the Cardinals finished 4-8. In terms of their overall production, Louisville was the #102nd ranked team in total production, with their offense the 108th most productive team and their defense the 70th most productive team. Louisville's strength of schedule was a 52.08, which is a stronger than average schedule.
For the 2010 season Louisville finished 7-6 including their win over Southern Mississippi in the Beef O'Brady Bowl, which the NCAA FBS production model correctly predicted by the way. Louisville's final production ranking was #33 in the nation, with the #43 best productive offense and the #31 best defense in terms of production. Louisville's schedule strength is a 64.69, which is slightly weaker than an average schedule.
Note: the difference in rankings from the Beef O'Brady Bowl blog link and the information in this paragraph is that the blog was written and analyzed before the game and the ranking information is after all the bowl games last season.
To date the University of Louisville is 2-4, with wins over non-FBS Murray State and over currently #114 ranked Kentucky, and has played a strength of schedule to date of 71.67, which is a rather light schedule. According to the production model, Louisville is currently the #93rd most productive team overall, with the #115th most productive offense and the #21st most productive defense.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Friday, October 21, 2011
Tulane Head Coach Bob Toledo Resigns
Bob Toledo, the head football coach for the Tulane Green Wave has recently resigned. Coach Toledo started with Tulane in 2007, a year that I do not have all of the data to run the NCAA FBS production model. I do have the data starting with the 2008 season, and thus will look at the Green Wave since 2008. Let's take a look at the numbers.
In 2008 - Toledo's second year - the Green Wave were 2-10 (only wins were over Louisiana Lafayette and SMU), with a offensive production rank of #110 and defensive rank of #103, yielding an overall rank of #113 against a strength of schedule of 63.42, which is slightly easier than an average schedule.
In the following season (2009), Tulane finished 3-9 with wins over McNeese State, Army and UTEP. Fortunately Tulane had almost no where to go but up from there 2008 performance. Unfortunately the Green Wave did not move far. The finished the season as the #114th most productive offense, #116th most productive defense and the #115th most productive overall team. Remember this is out of 120 schools, so Tulane is rather an unproductive team. This is even more striking given their strength of schedule was a 68.83 for the season.
Last season (2010) the Green Wave finished 4-8. Tulane finished as the #83rd most productive offense, the #101st most productive defense and the #93 most productive team against a schedule strength of 68.00.
This season (up to last weekend) Tulane was 2-5. In terms of the production model, Tulane was the #65th most productive offense, the #88th most productive defense and the #76th most productive team overall. Given a strength of schedule of 91.00, Tulane's increase in productivity should be taken with a grain of salt - so to speak.
In 2008 - Toledo's second year - the Green Wave were 2-10 (only wins were over Louisiana Lafayette and SMU), with a offensive production rank of #110 and defensive rank of #103, yielding an overall rank of #113 against a strength of schedule of 63.42, which is slightly easier than an average schedule.
In the following season (2009), Tulane finished 3-9 with wins over McNeese State, Army and UTEP. Fortunately Tulane had almost no where to go but up from there 2008 performance. Unfortunately the Green Wave did not move far. The finished the season as the #114th most productive offense, #116th most productive defense and the #115th most productive overall team. Remember this is out of 120 schools, so Tulane is rather an unproductive team. This is even more striking given their strength of schedule was a 68.83 for the season.
Last season (2010) the Green Wave finished 4-8. Tulane finished as the #83rd most productive offense, the #101st most productive defense and the #93 most productive team against a schedule strength of 68.00.
This season (up to last weekend) Tulane was 2-5. In terms of the production model, Tulane was the #65th most productive offense, the #88th most productive defense and the #76th most productive team overall. Given a strength of schedule of 91.00, Tulane's increase in productivity should be taken with a grain of salt - so to speak.
NCAA Task Force and Bowl Egilibity
ESPN reports that the NCAA Division I Football Licensing Task Force will make a series of recommendations for football bowl eligibility. Among them are an APR of 930 out of 1000, and having all bowl games within a three week window so student athletes can minimize the amount of class time missed.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
UCLA under Rick Neuheisel
The USAToday reports that the AD at UCLA said that head football coach Rick Neuheisel's status is "day-to-day". Not a ringing endorsement. Neuheisel has been under contract as the head football coach at UCLA since the 2008 season, so let's take a look at the UCLA Bruin's through the eyes of the NCAA FBS production model over the last few years.
In 2008 the UCLA Bruins finished 4-8 with wins over Tennessee, Stanford, Washington and Washington State. The team was ranked #109 in terms of offensive productivity, #75 in terms of defensive productivity and #101 in total production. Keep in mind that UCLA's strength of schedule (in terms of their opponents average total productivity rank) for the entire season was a 50.25, which is a fairly strong schedule. Also keep in mind that I repeatedly have found that strength of schedule is not statistically significant with respect to winning.
For the following season (2009), the Bruins finished 6-6 in the regular season (plus they won their bowl game against Temple) for a final season record of 7-6. The Bruins ranked as the #83 offensively productive team, the #40 defensively productive team and the #63 overall productive team. UCLA's strength of schedule (opponents average total productivity rank) was easier than in 2008 at 55.15.
In 2010 UCLA finished 4-8. UCLA had the #100 ranked productive offense; the #105 ranked productive defense and the #106 ranked overall productive team against an almost identical strength of schedule at 55.17.
This season UCLA is currently 3-3 with wins against San Jose State, Oregon State and Washington State. As of last weekend, UCLA is the #49th most productive offense, the #89th most productive defense and the #66th most productive team overall facing currently a strength of schedule of 52.30.
Here is UCLA's schedule for this season and their (current) PF (Points For), PA (Points Against), SOS (Strength of Schedule) and whether the game is home or away.
In 2008 the UCLA Bruins finished 4-8 with wins over Tennessee, Stanford, Washington and Washington State. The team was ranked #109 in terms of offensive productivity, #75 in terms of defensive productivity and #101 in total production. Keep in mind that UCLA's strength of schedule (in terms of their opponents average total productivity rank) for the entire season was a 50.25, which is a fairly strong schedule. Also keep in mind that I repeatedly have found that strength of schedule is not statistically significant with respect to winning.
For the following season (2009), the Bruins finished 6-6 in the regular season (plus they won their bowl game against Temple) for a final season record of 7-6. The Bruins ranked as the #83 offensively productive team, the #40 defensively productive team and the #63 overall productive team. UCLA's strength of schedule (opponents average total productivity rank) was easier than in 2008 at 55.15.
In 2010 UCLA finished 4-8. UCLA had the #100 ranked productive offense; the #105 ranked productive defense and the #106 ranked overall productive team against an almost identical strength of schedule at 55.17.
This season UCLA is currently 3-3 with wins against San Jose State, Oregon State and Washington State. As of last weekend, UCLA is the #49th most productive offense, the #89th most productive defense and the #66th most productive team overall facing currently a strength of schedule of 52.30.
Here is UCLA's schedule for this season and their (current) PF (Points For), PA (Points Against), SOS (Strength of Schedule) and whether the game is home or away.
| Date | Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Venue | |||||
| 9/3/2011 | Houston | 34 | 38 | 3 | Away | |||||
| 9/10/2011 | San Jose St. | 27 | 17 | 90 | Home | |||||
| 9/17/2011 | Texas | 20 | 49 | 64 | Home | |||||
| 9/24/2011 | Oregon St. | 27 | 19 | 100 | Away | |||||
| 10/1/2011 | Stanford | 19 | 45 | 8 | Away | |||||
| 10/8/2011 | Washington St. | 28 | 25 | 49 | Home | |||||
| 10/20/2011 | Arizona | Away | ||||||||
| 10/29/2011 | California | Home | ||||||||
| 11/5/2011 | Arizona St. | Home | ||||||||
| 11/12/2011 | Utah | Away | ||||||||
| 11/19/2011 | Colorado | Home | ||||||||
| 11/26/2011 | Southern California | Away |
Monday, October 17, 2011
NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 7
Below is the latest NCAA FBS top 25 in terms of the production model. Notice that Alabama is still the most productive team based on the strength of their defense from the production model estimates, Wisconsin is still the second most productive team based on their offense.
Also notice that Houston has climbed up four spots to #3 in the rankings due to having the most productive offense (as of last week) among all FBS teams. I know that some will discount Houston's performance, as they have not played as difficult a schedule, such as what is perceived in the SEC, but that is not the point of this model. The model is estimating (taking into control all eleven conferences and the four independent FBS schools) the offense, defense and thus total productivity of what has happened on the field. Given this perspective, Houston is a very productive team - given their superior offensive productivity in relation to the rest of the NCAA FBS teams. I want to be clear - I am neither defending nor condemning Houston, but rather using this team as an example of what this model is ultimately ranking.
So, here is the top 25 - using just the 2011 weight, and the teams BCS rank (as of week 8).
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Also notice that Houston has climbed up four spots to #3 in the rankings due to having the most productive offense (as of last week) among all FBS teams. I know that some will discount Houston's performance, as they have not played as difficult a schedule, such as what is perceived in the SEC, but that is not the point of this model. The model is estimating (taking into control all eleven conferences and the four independent FBS schools) the offense, defense and thus total productivity of what has happened on the field. Given this perspective, Houston is a very productive team - given their superior offensive productivity in relation to the rest of the NCAA FBS teams. I want to be clear - I am neither defending nor condemning Houston, but rather using this team as an example of what this model is ultimately ranking.
So, here is the top 25 - using just the 2011 weight, and the teams BCS rank (as of week 8).
| Rank | School | BCS | |
| 1 | Alabama | (2) | |
| 2 | Wisconsin | (6) | |
| 3 | Houston | (19) | |
| 4 | Oklahoma | (3) | |
| 5 | Georgia Tech | (22) | |
| 6 | Boise State | (5) | |
| 7 | Oregon | (10) | |
| 8 | Stanford | (8) | |
| 9 | West Virginia | (15) | |
| 10 | LSU | (1) | |
| 11 | Oklahoma State | (4) | |
| 12 | Michigan | (18) | |
| 13 | Illinois | (23) | |
| 14 | Cincinnati | (-) | |
| 15 | South Carolina | (14) | |
| 16 | Temple | (-) | |
| 17 | Clemson | (7) | |
| 18 | Baylor | (-) | |
| 19 | Utah State | (-) | |
| 20 | Northern Illinois | (-) | |
| 21 | Ohio | (-) | |
| 22 | Michigan State | (16) | |
| 23 | Texas A&M | (17) | |
| 24 | South Florida | (-) | |
| 25 | Hawai'i | (-) |
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Arizona State - Oregon - 2011 Edition
Pac 12 fans know that Oregon hosts Arizona State. The NCAA FBS production model states that Oregon is currently a slightly better team than Arizona State, but not by much to really be able to give a definitive answer.
Oregon's strength of schedule (an average of current ranking) is equal to a 62.4 and Arizona State's strength of schedule (SOS) is equal to an 63.2, which is statistically the same. Given there is no real difference in their schedules to date, let's look at how the two schools have fared thus far this season as of October 7, 2011.
The University of Oregon is 4-1 so far this season and 2-0 in the Pacific 12 Conference. Oregon is the #17 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #8 most productive and their defense the #40 most productive. Here is Oregon's schedule and results as of last weekend.
Arizona State University is 5-1 so far this season and 3-0 in the Pacific 12 Conference. ASU is the #25 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #14 most productive and their defense the #49 most productive. Here is ASU's schedule and results as of last weekend.
Oregon's strength of schedule (an average of current ranking) is equal to a 62.4 and Arizona State's strength of schedule (SOS) is equal to an 63.2, which is statistically the same. Given there is no real difference in their schedules to date, let's look at how the two schools have fared thus far this season as of October 7, 2011.
The University of Oregon is 4-1 so far this season and 2-0 in the Pacific 12 Conference. Oregon is the #17 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #8 most productive and their defense the #40 most productive. Here is Oregon's schedule and results as of last weekend.
| Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | ||||||
| LSU | Neutral | 27 | 40 | 6 | L | |||||
| Nevada | Home | 69 | 20 | 60 | W | |||||
| Missouri St. | Home | 56 | 7 | 121 | W | |||||
| Arizona | Away | 56 | 31 | 101 | W | |||||
| California | Home | 43 | 15 | 24 | W | |||||
| Arizona St. | Home | |||||||||
| Colorado | Away | |||||||||
| Washington St. | Home | |||||||||
| Washington | Away | |||||||||
| Stanford | Away | |||||||||
| Southern California | Home | |||||||||
| Oregon St. | Home |
Arizona State University is 5-1 so far this season and 3-0 in the Pacific 12 Conference. ASU is the #25 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #14 most productive and their defense the #49 most productive. Here is ASU's schedule and results as of last weekend.
| Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | ||||||
| UC Davis | Home | 48 | 14 | 121 | W | |||||
| Missouri | Home | 37 | 30 | 34 | W | |||||
| Illinois | Away | 14 | 17 | 12 | L | |||||
| Southern California | Home | 43 | 22 | 59 | W | |||||
| Oregon St. | Home | 35 | 20 | 84 | W | |||||
| Utah | Away | 35 | 14 | 69 | W | |||||
| Oregon | Away | |||||||||
| Colorado | Home | |||||||||
| UCLA | Away | |||||||||
| Washington St. | Away | |||||||||
| Arizona | Home | |||||||||
| California | Home |
Friday, October 14, 2011
Michigan vs. Michigan State - 2011 Edition
Big 10 fans have an interesting game this weekend, with Michigan State hosting Michigan. In this game we have the "immovable object" against the "irresistible force" with Michigan's #3 most productive offense facing Michigan State's #2 most productive defense. Who will win? Watch and find out, but the model would state that Michigan State is a slightly better (more productive) team than Michigan, but not by much to really be able to give a definitive answer. Each school has a similar non-conference schedule, with both playing Notre Dame and Michigan winning at the very end and Michigan State losing. Michigan's strength of schedule (an average of current ranking) is equal to a 74 and Michigan State's strength of schedule (SOS) is equal to an 80, thus Michigan has played a slightly stronger schedule. Both schools should have a much more challenging schedule over the next two months.
So, let's look at how the two schools have fared thus far this season as of October 7, 2011.
The University of Michigan is 6-0 so far this season and 2-0 in the Big Ten Conference. Michigan is the #14 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #3 most productive and their defense the #55 most productive. Here is Michigan's schedule and results as of last weekend.
Michigan State University is 4-1 so far this season and 1-0 in the Big Ten Conference. Michigan State is the 10th best productive team overall through this past weekend, and their offense is the #67 most productive (slightly below average) and their defense the #2 in terms of production (only behind Alabama).
Here is Michigan State's schedule for this season:
PF = Points For (scored by the team); PA = Points Against (scored by their opponent); SOS = strength of schedule.
So, let's look at how the two schools have fared thus far this season as of October 7, 2011.
The University of Michigan is 6-0 so far this season and 2-0 in the Big Ten Conference. Michigan is the #14 most productive team overall through this past weekend, with their offense the #3 most productive and their defense the #55 most productive. Here is Michigan's schedule and results as of last weekend.
| Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | ||||||
| Western Mich. | Home | 34 | 10 | 64 | W | |||||
| Notre Dame | Home | 35 | 31 | 46 | W | |||||
| Eastern Mich. | Home | 31 | 3 | 98 | W | |||||
| San Diego St. | Home | 28 | 7 | 57 | W | |||||
| Minnesota | Home | 58 | 0 | 114 | W | |||||
| Northwestern | Away | 42 | 24 | 65 | W | |||||
| Michigan St. | Away | |||||||||
| Purdue | Home | |||||||||
| Iowa | Away | |||||||||
| Illinois | Away | |||||||||
| Nebraska | Home | |||||||||
| Ohio St. | Home |
Michigan State University is 4-1 so far this season and 1-0 in the Big Ten Conference. Michigan State is the 10th best productive team overall through this past weekend, and their offense is the #67 most productive (slightly below average) and their defense the #2 in terms of production (only behind Alabama).
Here is Michigan State's schedule for this season:
| Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | ||||||
| Youngstown St. | Home | 28 | 6 | 121 | W | |||||
| Fla. Atlantic | Home | 44 | 0 | 99 | W | |||||
| Notre Dame | Away | 13 | 31 | 46 | L | |||||
| Central Mich. | Home | 45 | 7 | 87 | W | |||||
| Ohio St. | Away | 10 | 7 | 47 | W | |||||
| Michigan | Home | |||||||||
| Wisconsin | Home | |||||||||
| Nebraska | Away | |||||||||
| Minnesota | Home | |||||||||
| Iowa | Away | |||||||||
| Indiana | Home | |||||||||
| Northwestern | Away |
PF = Points For (scored by the team); PA = Points Against (scored by their opponent); SOS = strength of schedule.
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