Thursday, November 29, 2018

East Carolina Fires Head Football Coach Scottie Montgomery

Earlier today East Carolina University fired head football coach Scottie Montgomery, after three seasons at the helm of the Pirates.  Head coach Montgomery replaced Ruffin McNeill, who was fired after six seasons (four bowl appearances) and having a highly productive football team. With the subsequent decline in the football program, East Carolina earlier this year bought out the athletic director and is now searching for a new athletic director.  In the figure below, you can see the production rank for the last two seasons under Skip Holtz (2008-2009); Ruffin McNeill (2010-2015); and Scottie Montgomery (2016-2018).



Scottie Montgomery [2016-2018]

2016
The Pirates finished the regular season at (3-9); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)East Carolina's best game was their victory against #27 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (33-30) and their worst loss was to #101 ranked SMU (31-55).  The Pirates finished the season as the #113 ranked team overall, with the #114 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Pirates finished the regular season at (3-9); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)East Carolina's best game was their victory against #102 ranked BYU by a score of (33-17) and their worst loss was to FCS James Madison (14-34).  The Pirates finished the season as the #123 ranked team overall, with the #93 ranked offense and the #128 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Pirates finished the regular season at (3-8); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)East Carolina's best game was their victory against #90 ranked North Carolina by a score of (41-19) and their worst loss was to FCS North Carolina A&T (23-28).  The Pirates finished the season as the #108 ranked team overall, with the #107 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Paul Johnson Retires from Georgia Tech

Earlier today Paul Johnson retired as head football coach at Georgia Tech, even thought at the beginning of this year he signed a two year contract extension through 2022.  Johnson has been at the helm of the Yellow Jackets since 2008, the same season I started the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  So, let's see how the Yellow Jackets have performed during his eleven years as head football coach.

Below is a figure of the total, offensive, defensive, average and worst production ranks since the 2008 season.  As you can see, Georgia Tech has been an above average team for most of this time period, which is not true for many Football Bowl Subdivision programs.



Georgia Tech [2008-2018]

2008
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (9-3); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #38 ranked LSU (3-38) to finish the season (9-4), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) meaning that the Yellow Jackets SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against in-state rival #22 ranked Georgia by a score of (45-42) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Virginia (17-24).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #43 ranked team overall, with the #57 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2009
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (10-2).  The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets qualified to play in the ACC Conference Championship game where they defeated #10 ranked Clemson (39-34). The Yellow Jackets were defeated by #37 ranked Iowa in the Orange Bowl by a score (14-24) to finish the season (11-3), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against #6 ranked Virginia Tech by a score of (28-23) and their worst loss was to #72 ranked in-state rival Georgia (24-30).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #14 ranked team overall, with the #8 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2010
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (6-6); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #29 ranked Air Force (7-14) to finish the season (6-7), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleGeorgia Tech's best game was their victory against rival #38 ranked North Carolina by a score of (30-24) and their worst loss was to #114 ranked Kansas (25-28).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #76 ranked team overall, with the #52 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2011
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (8-4); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #48 ranked Utah (27-30) to finish the season (8-5), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleGeorgia Tech's best game was their victory against  #36 ranked North Carolina by a score of (35-28) and their worst loss was to #74 ranked Virginia (21-24).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #17 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2012
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (6-6); and qualified for the ACC Conference Championship game where they were defeated by #2 ranked Florida State by a score of (15-21).  The Yellow Jackets were bowl eligible, and defeated by #46 ranked USC (21-7) to finish the season (7-7), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleGeorgia Tech's best game was their victory against #26 ranked North Carolina by a score of (68-50) and their worst loss was to #77 ranked Middle Tennessee State by a score of (28-49).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #50 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2013
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (7-5); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #45 ranked Mississippi (17-25) to finish the season (7-6), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) meaning that the Yellow Jackets SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against #41 ranked North Carolina by a score of (28-20) and their worst loss was to #54 ranked Virginia Tech (10-17).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #43 ranked team overall, with the #41 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (10-2); and qualified for the ACC Conference Championship game where they were defeated by #43 ranked Florida State by a score of (35-37).  The Yellow Jackets were bowl eligible, and defeated by #18 ranked Mississippi State by a score of (49-34) to finish the season (11-3), while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule, meaning that the Yellow Jackets strength of schedule was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average strength of schedule.  Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against in-state rival #8 ranked Georgia (30-24) and their worst loss was to #98 ranked North Carolina by a score of (43-48).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #15 ranked team overall, with the #8 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (4-8); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS)Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against  #16 ranked Florida State by a score of (22-16) and their worst loss was to #94 ranked Virginia (21-27).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #52 ranked team overall, with the #66 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (8-4); and were bowl eligible, and defeated #88 ranked Kentucky (33-18) to finish the season (9-4), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against #32 ranked Virginia Tech by a score of (30-20) and their worst loss was to #61 ranked Pittsburgh (34-37).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #44 ranked team overall, with the #61 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season at (5-6); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS)Georgia Tech's best game was their victory against  #28 ranked Virginia Tech by a score of (28-22) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Tennessee (41-42).  The Yellow Jackets finished the season as the #67 ranked team overall, with the #92 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Even though the coach Johnson signed a contract extension at the beginning of the year, this ended up being his last season at the helm of the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech is currently (7-5), and bowl eligible (bowl game and opponent yet to be determined).  To date, the Yellow Jackets played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), and their best win was against currently ranked #14 Miami (FL) by a score of (27-21) and their worst loss to currently ranked #94 Duke by a score of (14-28).  Currently, Georgia Tech is the #51 ranked team overall, #26 ranked offense and #73 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Houston and UTSA Change Assistant Coaches

Houston has fired defensive coordinator Mark D’Onofrio.  The Cougars are currently the #118 ranked defense out of 130 FBS programs.  Houston has a great offense, but not a great defense - even with Ed Oliver.

UTSA will not bring back offensive coordinator Al Borges.  The Roadrunners are currently the worst offense (#130 out of 130) in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Mike Sanford Out at Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky has fired head football coach Mike Sanford.  Below is a look at the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since the 2008 season.  Western Kentucky has had five head coaching changes from 2009 to 2018:  2009 David Elson, fired; 2012 Willie Taggert, left for South Florida;  2013 Bobby Petrino, left for Louisville; 2016 Jeff Brohm, left for Purdue; and 2018 Mike Sanford, fired.  As you can see, after three above average seasons in total production rankings, the Hilltoppers production dropped dramatically during Sanford's tenure as head football coach.



2017
Western Kentucky finished the regular season at (6-6); bowl eligible,losing their bowl game to #94 ranked Georgia State by a score of (17-27), while playing against a “much easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Hilltoppers SOS was greater than two standard deviations that the "league" average SOS.  The Hilltoppers best victory was against #69 ranked Middle Tennessee State (41-38) and their worst loss was to #125 ranked Illinois by a score of (7-20).  Western Kentucky finished as the #80 ranked team overall, with the #79 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Western Kentucky finished the regular season at (3-9), and were bowl ineligible.  To date, the Hilltoppers played again against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Hilltoppers SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS.  The Hilltoppers best win was against currently ranked #62 Louisiana Tech (30-15) and their worst loss to FCS Maine by a score of (28-31).  Currently, Western Kentucky is the #99 ranked team overall, #113 ranked offense and #75 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech

Texas Tech Fires Kliff Kingsbury as Head Football Coach

Texas Tech has fired head football coach Kliff Kingsbury yesterday.  Below is a figure showing the Red Raiders total production rank, offensive production rank, defensive production rank and the average and worst production ranks from 2008 to 2018.  As you can tell, Texas Tech is a Big 12 conference team - lots of production on offense and not so much on defense.  In fact, the only season Texas Tech was above average on the defensive side of the ball was Leach's last season in Lubbock.  Following the figure below is more detailed information about the Red Raider's football performance.



Kliff Kingsbury [2013-2018]

2013
The Red Raiders finished the regular season at (7-5); and were bowl eligible, defeating #24 ranked Arizona State (37-23) to finish the season (8-5), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) meaning that the Red Raiders SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Texas Tech's best game was their victory against #62 ranked TCU by a score of (20-10) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas (16-41).  The Red Raiders finished the season as the #61 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  In terms of wins, this was Tech's best season (the team he inherited from Tuberville).

2014
Texas Tech took a step backwards finishing the regular season at (4-8) and were bowl ineligible.  The Red Raiders played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Red Raiders best victory was against #69 ranked UTEP (30-26) and their worst loss was to #102 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (35-45).  Texas Tech finished as the #101 ranked team overall, with the #61 ranked offense and the #119 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Red Raiders finished the regular season at (7-5) making them bowl eligible, where they lost their bowl game to #10 ranked LSU (27-56) to finish the season overall at (7-6).  The Red Raiders played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole.  The Red Raiders best win was to #17 ranked Arkansas (35-24) and their worst loss was again to #40 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (53-70).  Texas Tech finished the season as the #90 ranked team overall, with the #6 ranked offense and the #127 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  (Great offense; no defense - below average team).
 
2016
The Red Raiders finished the regular season at (5-7); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  Texas Tech's best game was their victory against #13 ranked Miami (FL) (20-13) and their worst loss was to #23 ranked Louisiana Tech (59-45).  The Red Raiders finished the season as the #96 ranked team overall, with the #31 ranked offense and the #126 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  More of the same from the previous season, with a lower production offense.

2017
Texas Tech finished the regular season at (6-6); bowl ineligible,losing their bowl game to #25 ranked South Florida by a score of (34-38), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  The Red Raiders best victory was against #47 ranked Texas (27-23) and their worst loss was to #76 ranked West Virginia by a score of (35-46).  Texas Tech finished as the #53 ranked team overall, with the #23 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
In what ended up being head coach Kingsbury’s last season at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders were (5-7), and for the second consecutive season the Red Raiders were bowl ineligible.  To date, the Red Raiders played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Red Raiders best win was against currently ranked #49 Houston (63-49) and their worst loss to currently ranked #96 Kansas State by a score of (6-21).  Currently, Texas Tech is the #73 ranked team overall, #29 ranked offense and #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina

Sunday, November 25, 2018

North Carolina Fires Head Football Coach Larry Fedora

Earlier today, the University of North Carolina fired head football coach Larry Fedora.  Below is a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels from 2008 to 2018, under the last three of four years under Butch Davis, Everett Withers one season as interim head coach, and the last seven seasons under Larry Fedora.  As you can see in the figure below, the Tar Heels were above average and improving under Withers, and that under Fedora, North Carolina has had four seasons above average and three seasons below average.  After the figure is some more detailed information about the North Carolina football program, along with links for Fedora's original and amended contracts.



Larry Fedora [2012 - 2018] Original Contract; Amended Contract

2012
The Tar Heel's first season with Fedora as the head football coach of North Carolina, they finished the regular season at 8-4 and bowl ineligible, due academic fraud among other alegations.  The Tar Heel's played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Tar Heel's end of season SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the “league” average SOS.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #68 ranked Virginia Tech (48-34) - so all eight wins were against below average teams; and their worst loss was to #97 ranked Wake Forest (27-28).  North Carolina finished the season as the #26 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #43 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2013
The Tar Heel's finished the regular season at (6-6); and were bowl eligible, defeating #25 ranked Cincinnati (39-17) to finish the season (7-6), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) meaning that the Tar Heel's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #40 ranked Middle Tennessee State (40-20) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Texas Tech (25-27).  The Tar Heel's finished the season as the #41 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
North Carolina again finished the regular season at (6-6) and were bowl eligible, and lost to #85 ranked Rutgers (21-40) to finish overall at (6-7).  The Tar Heel's played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), which means that the Tar Heel's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Tar Heel's best victory was against #15 ranked Georgia Tech (48-43) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Notre Dame by a score of (43-50).  North Carolina finished as the #98 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #127 [2nd worst in all of the FBS] ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
In what was the best season overall (in terms of wins and losses) with Fedora as the head football coach of North Carolina, the Tar Heels finished the regular season at 11-1 and they played in the ACC conference game against #11 ranked Clemson, losing (37-45).  North Carolina also lost their bowl game to #15 ranked Baylor (36-55) to finish the season overall at (11-3).  The Tar Heel's played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole.  The Tar Heel's best win was to #35 ranked Pittsburgh (26-19) and their only regular season loss was to #85 ranked South Carolina by a score of (13-17).  North Carolina finished the season as the #29 ranked team overall, with the #5 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Tar Heel's finished the regular season at (8-4); and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #57 ranked Stanford (23-25) to finish overall at (8-5), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #13 ranked Miami (FL) (20-13) and their worst loss was to in-state rival #92 ranked Duke (27-28).  The Tar Heel's finished the season as the #26 ranked team overall, with the #35 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  While not as good in terms of the wins and losses, but in terms of overall production, this was a better team than in 2015.

2017
North Carolina finished the regular season at (3-9); bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  The Tar Heel's best victory was against #90 ranked Pittsburgh (34-31) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Virginia by a score of (27-28).  North Carolina finished as the #107 ranked team overall, with the #105 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
In what ended up being head coach Fedora’s last season at North Carolina, the Tar Heel's were (2-9), and for the second consecutive season the Tar Heel's were bowl ineligible.  To date, the Tar Heel's played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Tar Heels's best win was against currently ranked #68 Pittsburgh (38-35) and their worst loss to currently ranked #108 East Carolina by a score of (19-41).  Currently, North Carolina is the #90 ranked team overall, #85 ranked offense and #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas

Kansas Football Since 2008

As announced on November 4th, David Beaty is no longer the head football coach at Kansas.  Beaty was hired in December 2014 and received a contract extension after the 2016 season, but at the time of his firing, he had a 6-39 record in those three plus seasons.  In the figure below, Kansas' total production rank, offensive production rank, defensive production rank as well as the average and worst production rank are listed since the 2008 season, including blue or red bars at the time of Mangino, Gill, Weiss and now Beaty's firing.  As you can see, not since head coach Mangino have the Jayhawk's been above average, but you will also notice this seasons Jayhawk's are the most productive since 2009.  Yet, this is not enough for David Beaty to keep his job.



David Beaty [2015 - 2018]

2015
The Jayhawk's first season with Beaty as the head football coach of Kansas, they finished the regular season at 0-12 and bowl ineligible.  The Jayhawk's played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Jayhawk's end of season SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the “league” average SOS.  Of the twelve losses, the Jayhawk's worst loss was to FCS South Dakota State by a score of (38-41).  Kansas finished the season as the #128 ranked team overall [the worst in all of the FBS], with the #122 ranked offense and the #128 ranked defense [the worst in all of the FBS] using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Jayhawk's finished the regular season at (2-10); and were bowl ineligible while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  Kansas best game was their victory against #74 ranked Texas (24-21) and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Texas Tech (19-55).  The Jayhawk's finished the season as the #125 ranked team overall, with the #124 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Kansas finished the regular season at (1-11); bowl ineligible, while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule.  The Jayhawk's only victory was against FCS Southeast Missouri State (38-16) and their worst loss was to #115 ranked Baylor by a score of (9-38).  Kansas finished as the #128 ranked team overall, with the #125 ranked offense and the #126 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
In what ended up being head coach Beaty’s last season at Kansas, the Jayhawk's were (3-9), and for the fourth consecutive season under Beathy, the Jayhawk's were bowl ineligible.  The Jayhawk's played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Jayhawk's best win was against currently ranked #59 TCU (27-26) and their worst loss to FCS Nicholls State (23-26).  Currently, Kansas is the #93 ranked team overall, #86 ranked offense and #88 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  Kansas made a substantial improvement over the three seasons, but it was not enough for Beaty to be retained as head football coach.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan

2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

With week #13 of NCAA FBS games finished, below is the latest Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, The University of Alabama Crimson Tide are on top of the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision rankings.  In terms of overall productivity, Alabama is substantially the best team, with Clemson substantially the second best team, and the rest of the FBS substantially not.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Fresno State
4 Georgia
5 Mississippi State
6 Appalachian State
7 Utah State
8 UCF
9 Cincinnati
10 Notre Dame
11 Michigan
12 Memphis
13 Washington
14 Miami (Florida)
15 Ohio State
16 Florida
17 Iowa
18 Oklahoma
19 North Texas
20 West Virginia
21 Penn State
22 Boise State
23 Ohio
24 Utah
25 Washington State

Previous 2018 Top 25 Rankings
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #1
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12

Friday, November 23, 2018

John Bonamego Fired as Head Football Coach at Central Michigan

Central Michigan has fired head football coach John Bonamego earlier this evening.  While there are many more games to be played this weekend, I thought that I would look at the Chipewas under Bonamego's tenure, even though this weekend games are not yet analyzed.  As you can see, the Chippewas have been up and down during Bonamego's tenure.



John Bonamego [2015-2018]

2015
The Chippewas first season with Bonamego as the head football coach of Central Michigan, they finished the regular season at 7-5 and bowl eligible, where they lost to #66 ranked Minnesota by a score of (14-21) to finish 7-6 overall.  The Chippewas played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Chippewas' end of season SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the “league” average SOS.  Central Michigan's best game that season was a victory over #68 ranked Akron (14-6); so all of their victories were against teams that were below average.  The Chippewas worst loss was to #88 ranked Syracuse by a score of (27-30).  Central Michigan finished the season as the #45 ranked team overall, with the #62 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Chippewas finished the regular season at (6-6); and were bowl eligible where they lost to #35 Tulsa (10-55) to finish overall at (6-7).  Central Michigan played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Central Michigan best game was their victory against #30 ranked Oklahoma State (30-27) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Virginia (35-49).  The Chippewas finished the season as the #90 ranked team overall, with the #78 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2017
Central Michigan finished the regular season at (8-4); bowl eligible and lost to #37 ranked Wyoming (14-37) to finish (8-5) overall.  The Chippewas played against an “easier” strength of schedule.  The Chippewas best victory was against #22 ranked Ohio (26-23) and their worst loss was to #104 ranked Syracuse by a score of (17-41).  Central Michigan finished as the #51 ranked team overall, with the #50 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2018
In what ended up being head coach Bonamego’s last season at Central Michigan, as of week #12, the Chippewas were (1-11), and for the first time during Bonamego's tenure that the Chippewas were bowl ineligible.  The Chippewas played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Chippewas only win was against FCS Maine (17-5) and their worst loss to currently ranked #119 Bowling Green (13-24).  Currently, Central Michigan is the #111 ranked team overall, #129 ranked offense and #55 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  (Production rankings will change after this weekend's games are finished).

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State

Mississippi Fires Defensive Coordinator Wesley McGriff

Mississippi has fired defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff.  Here is a figure of the Mississippi Rebels defense since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  As you can see, since 2014 (last two was when coach McGriff was defensive coordinator) the defensive production by the Rebels has been declining.

Mark Whipple is out as Head Football Coach at Massachusetts

The University of Massachusetts and head football coach Mark Whipple have agreed to part ways as head football coach.  Here is a look at the UMass football program starting with the two seasons under Charley Molnar and the entire tenure of Mark Whipple.  As you can see from the figure below, UMass only had one above average season (2017) in terms of production, although this season's offense was above average, but not the defense or the team overall.


Mark Whipple [2014-2018]

2014
At the conclusion of Whipple’s second first season (he was the head football coach at UMass from 1998 to 2003) as the head football coach of the Massachusetts Minutemen, they finished the regular season at 4-8 and bowl ineligible.  The Minutemen played against a “Much Easier” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Minutemen's end of season SOS was greater than two standard deviations greater than the “league” average SOS.  Massachusetts' best game that season was a victory over #80 ranked Ball State (24-10) and their worst loss was to #116 ranked Colorado by a score of (38-41).  Massachusetts finished the season as the #95 ranked team overall, with the #80 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
At the conclusion of the second season as head football coach, the Minutemen took a step backwards and were 3-9 and bowl ineligible.  The Minutemen played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Minutemen's end of season SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the “league” average SOS.  Massachusetts best game that season was a victory over #91 ranked Buffalo (31-26) and their worst loss was to #112 ranked Miami (OH) by a score of (13-20).  Massachusetts finished the season as the #98 ranked team overall, with the #96 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2016
The Minutemen again took a step backwards, with Massachusetts finishing at (2-10).  That still meant they were bowl ineligible, but this season they played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Massachusetts best game was their victory against #115 ranked Florida International (21-13) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked South Carolina (28-34).  The Minutemen finished the season as the #114 ranked team overall, with the #111 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2017
In terms of wins and losses (and production), Massachusetts took a step forwards, with the Minutemen finishing at (4-8); bowl ineligible; playing an “easier” strength of schedule.  The Minutemen's only victory was against #14 ranked Appalachian State (30-27) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Tennessee by a score of (13-17).  Massachusetts finished as the #43 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2018
In what ended up being head coach Whipple’s last season at Massachusetts, as of week #12, the Minutemen were (4-8), playing again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The 49ers best win was against currently ranked #92 Charlotte (49-31) and their worst loss to currently ranked #109 Coastal Carolina (13-24).  Currently, Massachusetts is the #115 ranked team overall, #38 ranked offense and #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Brad Lambert Fired as Head Football Coach of UNC-Charlotte

The University of North Carolina-Charlotte has fired head football coach Brad Lambert.  Below is a figure of the Charlotte 49ers production ranks for the team overall, the offense and the defense from 2015 to 2018* (through week #12).  As you can see at least through last week, the Charlotte 49ers were a team that was improving as compared to the previous three seasons.  Following the figure below is more information about the 49ers program under Lambert while in the FBS, along with a link to Lambert's contract.


Brad Lambert [2015-2018] in FBS

2015
At the conclusion of Charlotte’s first season in the Football Bowl Subdivision, the 49ers were 2-10 and bowl ineligible.  The 49ers played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the 49ers end of season SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the “league” average SOS.  Charlotte’s best game that season was a victory over #53 ranked Georgia State (23-20) and their worst loss was to #105 ranked UTSA by a score of (27-30).  Charlotte finished the season as the #122 ranked team overall, with the #126 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Charlotte’s second season in the FBS saw an improvement in the win/loss column, with the 49ers finishing at (4-8). That still meant they were bowl ineligible, but this season they played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), which means that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the “leagues” average SOS. Charlotte’s best game was their victory against #52 ranked Southern Mississippi (38-27) and their worst loss was to #124 ranked Rice (21-22). The 49ers finished the season as the #102 ranked team overall, with the #106 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
In terms of wins and losses (and production), Charlotte took a step backwards, with the 49ers finishing at (1-11); bowl ineligible; playing an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). The 49ers only victory was against #56 ranked UAB (25-24) and their worst loss was to FCS North Carolina A&T by a score of (31-35). Charlotte finished as the #124 ranked team overall, with the #127 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
In what ended up being head coach Lambert’s last season at Charlotte, as of week #12, the 49ers were (3-8), playing again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). The 49ers best win was against currently ranked #56 Southern Mississippi (20-17) and their worst loss to currently ranked #115 Massachusetts (31-49). Currently, Charlotte is the #92 ranked team overall, #124 ranked offense and #49 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Texas State Fires Head Coach Everett Withers

Texas State fired head football coach Everett Withers this past weekend.  So let's take a look at the Texas State Bobcats since they started in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

The figure below shows that Texas State fired head coach Franchione in 2015 and now head coach Withers in 2018.  Withers inherited a team at the bottom of the FBS and as you can see in the figure below, Texas State has improved the last two seasons, but that was not enough for Withers to keep his job.

After the figure below, is a quick take with regard to the Texas State Bobcats during Withers' tenure as head coach using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  Withers contract is also linked below.



Everett Withers [2016 - 2018]

2016
At the end of Withers' first season, the Bobcats finished the regular season at 2-10.  The Bobcats played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bobcats best win was over #54 ranked Ohio (56-54) and their worst loss was to #127 ranked Louisiana-Monroe by a score of (34-40).  Texas State had the #128 ranked team in total production with the #125 ranked offense and the #121 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Texas State again finished the regular season bowl ineligible with a 2-10 regular season win/loss record, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bobcats best win was again over #106 ranked Coastal Carolina (27-7) and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Louisiana-Monroe by a score of (27-45).  Texas State had the #114 ranked team in total production with the #108 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018*
Through week 12 - the time of head coach Withers firing - Texas State was 3-8, while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Texas State's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the average "league" SOS.  Texas State currently has the #82 ranked team in total production with the #103 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Colorado Fires Head Football Coach Mike MacIntyre

The University of Colorado has fired head football coach Mike MacIntyre after almost six seasons at the helm of the football program in Boulder Colorado.  This followed two season under coach Jon Embree and five seasons under Dan Hawkins.  As you can see from the figure below, Colorado has had only one above average season since 2008 season, and even though Colorado has improved this season over last season, it was not enough to retain MacIntyre.  For those interested, there is a link to MacIntyre's 2017 amended contract below the figure as well.

After the chart below, is a quick take on the Colorado Buffaloes during MacIntyre's tenure as head coach using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.


Mike MacIntyre [2013 - 2018]

2013
At the end of head coach MacIntyre's first season at the helm of the Buffaloes' football program, Colorado was bowl ineligible with a 4-8 win/loss record, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Colorado had an SOS plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes' best win was over in-state rival #37 ranked Colorado State (41-27).  It was also the only victory over an above average ranked team, and two of their four wins were over FCS teams (Central Arkansas and Charlestown Southern).  Their worst loss was their last regular season game to #78 ranked Utah by a score of (17-24).  Colorado had the #104 ranked team in total production with the #93 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
At the end of head coach MacIntyre's second season at the helm of the Buffaloes' football program, Colorado took a step backward in terms of wins and losses (2-10) and in terms of production even while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Of there two victories, the Buffaloes' best win was over #95 ranked Massachusetts (41-38) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked California by a score of (56-59).  Colorado had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #86 ranked offense and the #117 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. It is interesting to note that MacIntyre had the same number of victories over FBS teams in his first two seasons as Embree (4), but while Embree was fired, MacIntrye was not.

2015
Colorado improved in that it won three games against FBS teams this year as opposed to just two in the previous two seasons, and finished 4-9 during the regular season.  Colorado again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was over #73 ranked Colorado State (27-24) and their worst loss was to #125 ranked Hawai'i by a score of (20-28).  Colorado had the #87 ranked team in total production with the #83 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
In what ends up being Colorado's only bowl eligible season, the Buffaloes finished the regular season at 10-2, and played in the PAC-12 Conference championship game - losing to #2 ranked Washington by a score (10-41), and then subsequently losing to #30 ranked Oklahoma State (8-38) in the Valero Alamo Bowl, resulting in Colorado to finish overall at 10-2.  The Buffaloes played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was over #37 ranked Washington State (38-24) and their worst loss was to #28 ranked USC by a score of (17-21).  Colorado had the #16 ranked team in total production with the #42 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Colorado finished the regular season bowl ineligible with a 5-7 regular season win/loss record, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was again over in-state rival #45 ranked Colorado State (17-3) and their worst loss was to #97 ranked UCLA by a score of (23-27).  Colorado had the #88 ranked team in total production with the #78 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018*
Colorado started the season at 5-0, with their best win over #52 currently ranked Arizona State (28-21) and then lost their next six games, all to PAC-12 teams.  Of those six losses, three were to above average teams (Washington, Washington State and Utah) and three were to below average teams (USC, Arizona and currently ranked #127 Oregon State), while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Colorado currently has the #75 ranked team in total production with the #75 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville

Monday, November 19, 2018

2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12

With week #12 of NCAA FBS games finished, below is the latest Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, The University of Alabama Crimson Tide are on top of the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision rankings.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Fresno State
4 Georgia
5 Utah State
6 Michigan
7 Mississippi State
8 Appalachian State
9 UCF
10 Notre Dame
11 Oklahoma
12 Iowa
13 Memphis
14 UAB
15 West Virginia
16 Miami (Florida)
17 Cincinnati
18 Washington State
19 Florida
20 North Texas
21 Ohio State
22 Washington
23 Utah
24 Boise State
25 Ohio

Previous 2018 Top 25 Rankings
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #1
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11