Major Applewhite Fired from Houston

Yesterday the University of Houston fired head football coach Major Applewhite after two seasons at the helm of the Cougars football program.  Here is a look at the Houston Cougars since 2008; under four different head coaches - Sumlin; Levin; Herman and Applewhite.  As you will notice, Houston has had some remarkably productive seasons, and some not so remarkably productive seasons.  Houston has high expectations, and limited ability to retain coaches after those remarkable seasons.

Below is the Houston Cougars production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com, as well as lines for head coaching firing/retiring.  More details about the program under Applewhite (including a link to his contract) is provided below.

Major Applewhite [2017-2018]

2017
The Cougars finished the regular season again at (7-4), due to the first game of the season against UTSA being cancelled because of Hurricane Harvey; and were defeated by #23 ranked Fresno State by a score of (27-33) to finish (7-5) overall.  Houston played against an “average” strength of schedule, meaning that the Cougars strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leageue" strength of schedule.  Houston's best regular season victory against #25 ranked South Florida by a score of (28-24) and their worst loss was to #110 ranked Tulsa (17-45).  The Cougars' finished the season as the #57 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Cougars entered their bowl game at (8-4); and were clobbered by currently ranked #32 Army Black Knights by a score of (14-70) to finish the reason at (8-5) while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule, meaning that Houston's strength of schedule was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" strength of schedule.  During the regular season Houston Cougars best game was their victory against currently ranked #78 South Florida by a score of (57-36) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #88 SMU by a score of (31-45).  The Cougars' end of regular season production rankings are:  #42 team overall, with the #4 offense and the #113 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina
Bill Snyder and Kansas State
Terry Bowden and Akron
Turner Gill and Liberty
Urban Meyer and Ohio State
Mark Richt and Miami (FL)

2018 Taxslayer Gator Bowl

Later tonight in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl the North Carolina State Wolfpack from the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Texas A&M Aggies from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the North Carolina State Wolfpack.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #31 currently ranked Virginia
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #99 currently ranked Wake Forest
Current Total Production Rank:  #26
Current Offense Production Rank:  #22
Current Defense Production Rank:  #42

Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #28 currently ranked UAB
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #44 currently ranked Auburn
Current Total Production Rank:  #46
Current Offense Production Rank:  #57
Current Defense Production Rank:  #45

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Later today in the SDCCU Holiday Bowl the Northwestern Wildcats from the Big 10 Conference face the Utah Utes from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Utah Utes.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #16 currently ranked Iowa
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #111 currently ranked Akron
Current Total Production Rank:  #80
Current Offense Production Rank:  #95
Current Defense Production Rank:  #63

Utah Utes (12-1) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #36 currently ranked Oregon
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #49 currently ranked Arizona State
Current Total Production Rank:  #24
Current Offense Production Rank:  #52
Current Defense Production Rank:  #18

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Autozone Liberty Bowl

Today in the Autozone Liberty Bowl the Missouri Tigers from the Southeastern Conference face the Oklahoma State Cowboys from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Missouri Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Missouri Tiger (8-4) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #15 currently ranked Florida
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #71 currently ranked South Carolina
Current Total Production Rank:  #29
Current Offense Production Rank:  #38
Current Defense Production Rank:  #35

Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #18 currently ranked Boise State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #95 currently ranked Kansas State
Current Total Production Rank:  #68
Current Offense Production Rank:  #26
Current Defense Production Rank:  #102

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Redbox Bowl

Today the Redbox Bowl the Michigan State Spartans from the Big 10 Conference face the Oregon Ducks from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Oregon Ducks.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Michigan State Spartans (7-5) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #7 currently ranked Utah State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #80 currently ranked Northwestern
Current Total Production Rank:  #59
Current Offense Production Rank:  #108
Current Defense Production Rank:  #19

Oregon Ducks (8-4) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #11 currently ranked Washington
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #84 currently ranked Arizona
Current Total Production Rank:  #36
Current Offense Production Rank:  #16
Current Defense Production Rank:  #54

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Hyundai Sun Bowl

In today's Hyundai Sun Bowl, the Pittsburgh Panthers from the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Stanford Cardinal from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Stanford Cardinal.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Pittsburgh Panthers (7-6) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #31 currently ranked Virginia
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #87 currently ranked North Carolina
Current Total Production Rank:  #81
Current Offense Production Rank:  #69
Current Defense Production Rank:  #89

Stanford Cardinal (8-4) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #36 currently ranked Oregon
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #25 currently ranked Washington State
Current Total Production Rank:  #53
Current Offense Production Rank:  #61
Current Defense Production Rank:  #47

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Military Bowl

Today the Military Bowl pits the Cincinnati Bearcats from the American Athletic Conference against the Virginia Tech Hokies from the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #22 currently ranked Ohio
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #30 currently ranked Temple
Current Total Production Rank:  #9
Current Offense Production Rank:  #14
Current Defense Production Rank:  #14

Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #31 currently ranked Virginia
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #107 currently ranked Old Dominion
Current Total Production Rank:  #77
Current Offense Production Rank:  #58
Current Defense Production Rank:  #88

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Mark Richt Retires at Miami (FL)

Earlier today head football coach Mark Richt announced his retirement.  Since the 2008 season, Miami (FL) has had three head coaches - Randy Shannon, who was fired in 2010 - and in my opinion was a colossal mistake, Al Golden who was fired during the 2015 season and Mark Richt, who was head coach from 2016 until the end of this season.  Below is the Miami (FL) Hurricanes production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com, as well as lines for head coaching firing/retiring.  More details about the program under Richt are below.

Mark Richt [2016-2018]  (Miami (FL) 2008 - 2015 production details are here).

2016
The Hurricanes finished the regular season at (8-4); and defeated #42 ranked West Virginia (31-14) to finish the season overall at (9-4).  Miami (FL) played against an “average” strength of schedule, meaning that Miami (FL)'s strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS.  Miami's best regular season victory against #17 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (45-10), and their worst loss was to #67 ranked Notre Dame (27-30).  The Hurricanes finished the season as the #13 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Hurricanes finished the regular season again at (10-2); and were defeated by #7 ranked Wisconsin by a score of (24-34) to finish (10-3) overall.  Miami (FL) played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against #27 ranked Notre Dame by a score of (41-8) and their worst loss was to #90 ranked Pittsburgh (14-24).  The Hurricanes' finished the season as the #19 ranked team overall, with the #31 ranked offense and the #25 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Hurricanes entered their bowl game at (7-5); and were defeated by currently ranked #34 Wisconsin to finish the reason at (7-6) while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  During the regular season Miami (FL) best game was their victory against currently ranked #41 FIU by a score of (31-17) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #96 Duke by a score of (12-20).  The Hurricanes's end of season production rankings are:  #13 team overall, with the #42 offense and the #4 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina
Bill Snyder and Kansas State
Terry Bowden and Akron
Turner Gill and Liberty
Urban Meyer and Ohio State

Strength of Schedule and Notre Dame

FBSchedules.com asked a while ago if Notre Dame's strength of schedule is different that selective "Power 5" conference teams.  Now with Notre Dame playing in the "final four" later, I thought that I would take a look at strength of schedule (SOS) among teams during the regular season (through December 8th).

Conclusion:  Each team has played an average SOS this season.  Details on this follow below.

First, how do I measure SOS?  SOS is the average of each team's opponent's current production ranking using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.    Thus team's with a lower SOS numerical value, the stronger the team's SOS.

Thus for the four teams that made the FBS invitational, here is their SOS for this season to date:

Alabama SOS = 63.92;
Clemson SOS = 73.00;
Notre Dame SOS = 75.92;
Oklahoma SOS = 67.77.

Alabama has had the toughest SOS (playing currently ranked #4 Mississippi State and #5 Georgia helped lower their SOS) and Notre Dame had the easiest SOS at 75.92.

So are these two similar or different overall?  To answer this, first note that the average SOS for all games played up to December 8th was exactly 70.00.  Thus Alabama and Oklahoma both had SOS that was stronger than average and Clemson and Notre Dame had SOS that was weaker than average.

But is Notre Dame's 75.92 that much greater than the "league" average?  To answer that, I calculated the SOS standard deviation for this season and it is equal to 9.68.  Thus to determine if one team's SOS is similar or different, I evaluate each team's SOS relative to the "league" SOS.  Since Notre Dame is within one standard deviation of the "league" SOS, and that Alabama's SOS is within one standard deviation of the "league" SOS, I conclude that each team's SOS is average.  Thus both Alabama and Notre Dame have a SOS that is within one standard deviation of the "league" SOS.

What is the current distribution of SOS?  Through December 8th, 83 (or 63.8%) have a SOS that is plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS.  Team's with an SOS that is between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" SOS equal 22 (16.9%), as well as 22 teams with a standard deviation between one and two standard deviations below the "league" SOS.  Only 2 teams have a SOS that is greater than two standard deviations (FIU & North Texas) and 1 had an SOS that was less than two standard deviations below the "league" SOS (UCLA).

Historically, SOS has not been statistically significant in determining winning percentage after controlling for points scored, points surrendered and conference affiliation.  That is also true for teams at the upper end of the winning percentage distribution using quantile regression.

2018 Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday the second playoff game in the Capital One Orange Bowl pits the Alabama Crimson Tide from the Southeastern Conference against the Oklahoma Sooners from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #2
Current Offense Production Rank:  #1
Current Defense Production Rank:  #11

Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #21 currently ranked West Virginia
ONLY Loss:  #52 currently ranked Texas
Current Total Production Rank:  #23
Current Offense Production Rank:  #3
Current Defense Production Rank:  #117

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Goodyear Cotton Bowl

This Saturday the first playoff game in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl pits the Clemson Tigers from the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish an independent program.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Clemson Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Clemson Tigers (13-0) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #26 currently ranked North Carolina State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #1
Current Offense Production Rank:  #2
Current Defense Production Rank:  #7

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [Independent]
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #12 currently ranked Michigan
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #10
Current Offense Production Rank:  #27
Current Defense Production Rank:  #5

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Saturday the NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl pits the Arizona State Red Wolves from the Sun Belt Conference against the Nevada Wolfpack from the Mountain West Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Arkansas State Red Wolves.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4) of the Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #79 currently ranked Texas State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #91 currently ranked Louisiana-Lafayette
Current Total Production Rank:  #45
Current Offense Production Rank:  #23
Current Defense Production Rank:  #59

Nevada Wolfpack (7-5) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #58 currently ranked San Diego State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #65 currently ranked Vanderbilt
Current Total Production Rank:  #56
Current Offense Production Rank:  #36
Current Defense Production Rank:  #69

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

On Saturday the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl pits the Florida Gators from the Southeastern Conference against the Michigan Wolverines from the Big 10 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Michigan Wolverines.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Florida Gators (9-3) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #35 currently ranked Kentucky
Current Total Production Rank:  #15
Current Offense Production Rank:  #21
Current Defense Production Rank:  #16

Michigan Wolverines (10-2) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #20 currently ranked Penn State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #14 currently ranked Ohio State
Current Total Production Rank:  #12
Current Offense Production Rank:  #31
Current Defense Production Rank:  #6

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Belk Bowl

This Saturday the Belk Bowl pits the South Carolina Gamecocks from the Southeastern Conference against the Virginia Cavaliers from the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Virginia Cavaliers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #29 currently ranked Missouri
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #46 currently ranked Texas A&M
Current Total Production Rank:  #71
Current Offense Production Rank:  #59
Current Defense Production Rank:  #79

Virginia Cavaliers (7-5) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #13 currently ranked Miami (FL)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #97 currently ranked Indiana
Current Total Production Rank:  #31
Current Offense Production Rank:  #64
Current Defense Production Rank:  #20

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Valero Alamo Bowl

This Friday the Valero Alamo Bowl pits the Iowa State Cyclones from the Big 12 Conference against the Washington State Cougars from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Washington State Cougars.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #21 currently ranked West Virginia
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #55 currently ranked TCU
Current Total Production Rank:  #54
Current Offense Production Rank:  #88
Current Defense Production Rank:  #30

Washington State Cougars (10-2) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #24 currently ranked Utah
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #85 currently ranked Southern California
Current Total Production Rank:  #25
Current Offense Production Rank:  #18
Current Defense Production Rank:  #44

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Camping World Bowl

Friday the Camping World Bowl pits the Syracuse Orangemen from the Atlantic Coast Conference against the West Virginia Mountaineers from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the West Virginia Mountaineers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Syracuse Orangemen (9-3) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #26 currently ranked North Carolina State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #81 currently ranked Pittsburgh
Current Total Production Rank:  #42
Current Offense Production Rank:  #17
Current Defense Production Rank:  #65

West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #52 currently ranked Texas
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #68 currently ranked Oklahoma State
Current Total Production Rank:  #21
Current Offense Production Rank:  #12
Current Defense Production Rank:  #49

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Frankilin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

On Friday the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl pits the Auburn Tigers from the Southeastern Conference against the Purdue Boilermakers from the Big 10 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Auburn Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Auburn Tigers (7-5) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #11 currently ranked Washington
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #82 currently ranked Tennessee
Current Total Production Rank:  #44
Current Offense Production Rank:  #70
Current Defense Production Rank:  #29

Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #14 currently ranked Ohio State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #83 currently ranked Minnesota
Current Total Production Rank:  #67
Current Offense Production Rank:  #47
Current Defense Production Rank:  #82

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Academy Sports & Outdoors Texas Bowl

On Thursday the Academy Sports & Outdoors Texas Bowl pits the Baylor Bears from the Big 12 Conference against the Vanderbilt Commodores from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Vanderbilt Commodores.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Baylor Bears (6-6) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #68 currently ranked Oklahoma State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #96 currently ranked Duke
Current Total Production Rank:  #93
Current Offense Production Rank:  #92
Current Defense Production Rank:  #83

Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #56 currently ranked Nevada
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #71 currently ranked South Carolina
Current Total Production Rank:  #65
Current Offense Production Rank:  #65
Current Defense Production Rank:  #64

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Thursday's New Era Pinstripe Bowl pits the Miami (FL) Hurricanes of the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Wisconsin Badgers from the Big 10 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Miami (FL) Hurricanes.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (7-5) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #41 currently ranked Florida International
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #96 currently ranked Duke
Current Total Production Rank:  #13
Current Offense Production Rank:  #42
Current Defense Production Rank:  #4

Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #16 currently ranked Iowa
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #83 currently ranked Minnesota
Current Total Production Rank:  #34
Current Offense Production Rank:  #39
Current Defense Production Rank:  #38

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl

2018 Walk-On's Independence Bowl

Thursday in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl the Duke Blue Devils from the Atlantic Coast Conference play the Temple Owls from the American Athletic Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Temple Owls.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Duke Blue Devils (7-5) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #13 currently ranked Miami (FL)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #99 currently ranked Wake Forest
Current Total Production Rank:  #96
Current Offense Production Rank:  #81
Current Defense Production Rank:  #90

Temple Owls (8-4) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #9 currently ranked Cincinnati
Lowest Ranked Loss:  FCS Villanova
Current Total Production Rank:  #30
Current Offense Production Rank:  #45
Current Defense Production Rank:  #33

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl