College Football Conference Distributions

One of the topics in my First Year Seminar on College Football is about conferences.  Economically, conferences allow schools to lower costs and create consumer demand to generate higher revenues.  Last year the Big 12 conference distributed millions of dollars to the member schools and here is an article listing the amounts distributed since 1997.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 13

The college football regular season has now finished week 13.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Oregon
3	Michigan State
4	Georgia
5	Baylor
6	Wisconsin
7	Alabama
8	TCU
9	Mississippi State
10	Ohio State
11	Georgia Southern
12	Mississippi
13	Utah State
14	Georgia Tech
15	Memphis
16	BYU
17	Auburn
18	Arizona
19	Oklahoma
20	Florida State
21	Louisville
22	Arizona State
23	East Carolina
24	Miami (Florida)
25	Western Michigan

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 12

The college football regular season is now three quarters of the way finished and the top 25 (and top 4) have had a few changes with the recent weekend results.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Oregon
3	Michigan State
4	Baylor
5	TCU
6	Wisconsin
7	Georgia
8	Alabama
9	Georgia Southern
10	Ohio State
11	Mississippi
12	Mississippi State
13	Georgia Tech
14	Miami (Florida)
15	Florida State
16	Duke
17	Louisville
18	Utah State
19	Memphis
20	Louisiana Tech
21	Auburn
22	USC
23	Arizona State
24	Western Michigan
25	Arizona

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

Payroll and Performance in MLS

One of the ideas that we focus on in our book The Wages of Wins is the relationship between team payroll and team performance.  We focus primarily on Major League Baseball as that is the sport that the payroll and performance discussion tends to get the most talk.  What we find is that using team performance (regular season winning percentage) and team payroll (relative payroll when comparing multiple seasons or total payroll for one season) we find that there is a positive relationship between team performance and team payroll.  Additionally, we find that that relationship is statistically significant over multiple seasons, meaning that from a statistical viewpoint the two variables are different from zero.  Each of these we find evidence for.  Yet in terms of the amount that the two variables have in common, we find is less than 20% over most time periods.

So, let's take a look at MLS for just the 2014 regular season.  First let me note that since there are only 19 teams in MLS this season, the number of observations is suspect.  So take the following with a statistical "grain of salt".  Eventually, I will like to come back and analyze this over a much longer time period, but it will take some time for me to get the salary data cleaned up from the pdf's on the internet. 

Thus given I am only looking at the 2014 regular season the statistical results are not very promising.  For the 2014 regular season neither base salary nor guaranteed salary are statistically significant with respect to standings points.  In other words, from a statistically viewpoint either base salary or guaranteed salary do not explain end of regular season standings points.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 11

Now that week 11 is finished, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 rankings.  Marshall has re-taken the top spot in the Top 25, followed by Baylor, TCU and Oregon.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Baylor
3	TCU
4	Oregon
5	Georgia Southern
6	Michigan State
7	Mississippi
8	Wisconsin
9	Alabama
10	Mississippi State
11	Georgia
12	Louisville
13	Ohio State
14	Nebraska
15	Auburn
16	Duke
17	Utah State
18	LSU
19	Louisiana Tech
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Arizona State
22	UCLA
23	Florida State
24	Georgia Tech
25	USC

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

Competitive Balance in MLS

Now that the Major League Soccer regular season is over let's take a look at competitive balance in MLS for the 2014 season.  Using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance under the trinomial distribution (since ties are a part of the MLS) I find that competitive balance is higher for the 2014 regular season than the average over the last 15 seasons.  The Noll-Scully for 2014 is 1.488 which is still more competitive than the other "major" US sports leagues.  Yet the average Noll-Scully has been increasing - meaning that competitive balance is decreasing over the last five years.  Here is the Noll Scully since the 2000 regular season.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 10

We are now 10 weeks into the regular season and again we have a new #1 team (or repeat) from two weeks ago: Michigan State.  Surprises are that Georgia Southern, Marshall, Memphis and Louisana Tech are also in the top 25.  There are still six SEC teams in the top 25 (Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn, Georgia and LSU) and four Big 10 and four Big 12 teams as well.

Below is the list of Top 25 teams as of last week using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.

Rank	Team
1	Michigan State
2	Baylor
3	TCU
4	Georgia Southern
5	Marshall
6	Alabama
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Nebraska
10	Wisconsin
11	Mississippi
12	Miami (Florida)
13	Mississippi State
14	Auburn
15	Georgia
16	Oklahoma
17	East Carolina
18	Louisville
19	Duke
20	LSU
21	USC
22	Kansas State
23	Memphis
24	Louisiana Tech
25	Utah State

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2