The Iron Bowl - 2011 Edition

Last year I wrote a short piece on the Iron Bowl, and for the first half all looked well. Then Auburn stormed back and won the game, propelling them to the SEC championship and the national championship game.

So let's take a quick look at the Iron Bowl 2011 game through the eyes of the FBS production model.

Earlier this season, I took a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide when they faced the LSU Tigers, and in terms of the model and strength of schedule, you will notice some differences in the numbers from the model - just like now the teams won-loss record is different. As more games (and data) are played, the rankings and strength of schedule change. So with that in mind, starting with the Alabama Crimson Tide, they currently are 10-1 against a schedule strength of 63.3. The FBS production model has Alabama currently as the #4 highest ranked team in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball Alabama is ranked #37. Alabama currently has the #1 defense in the nation. To see who Alabama has played and their current rank, here is their regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Kent St.		48		7		75		W
9/10/2011		Penn St.		27		11		24		W
9/17/2011		North Texas		41		0		105		W
9/24/2011		Arkansas		38		14		20		W
10/1/2011		Florida		38		10		61		W
10/8/2011		Vanderbilt		34		0		39		W
10/15/2011		Ole Miss		52		7		112		W
10/22/2011		Tennessee		37		6		73		W
11/5/2011		LSU		6		9		3		L
11/12/2011		Mississippi St.		24		7		63		W
11/19/2011		Ga. Southern		45		21		121		W
11/26/2011		Auburn

Turning to the Auburn Tigers, who are 7-4 against a strength of schedule equal to 53.5 which is much more difficult than an average schedule. Auburn is the #80th ranked team in the nation. Yes, last year's "national champion" is currently a below average FBS team. The Auburn Tigers are currently the #76th ranked offense and currently the #80th ranked defense.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Utah St.		42		38		27		W
9/10/2011		Mississippi St.		41		34		63		W
9/17/2011		Clemson		24		38		54		L
9/24/2011		Fla. Atlantic		30		14		107		W
10/1/2011		South Carolina		16		13		11		W
10/8/2011		Arkansas		14		38		20		L
10/15/2011		Florida		17		6		61		W
10/22/2011		LSU		10		45		3		L
10/29/2011		Ole Miss		41		23		112		W
11/12/2011		Georgia		7		45		9		L
11/19/2011		Samford		35		16		121		W
11/26/2011		Alabama

So in terms of the NCAA FBS production model Alabama is significantly more productive than Auburn. I made the same prediction last year - Alabama over Auburn.

Clemson - South Carolina 2011

On Saturday Clemson and South Carolina pick up their rivalry for bragging rights in South Carolina. Both Clemson and South Carolina are ranked in the BCS standings. Currently South Carolina is ranked #12 and Clemson is ranked #17. Thus in terms of the BCS standings this should be a competitive game. What about the production model?

Clemson is currently 9-2 against a strength of schedule equal to 61.5. Clemson in the production model is the #54 team in the nation, with the #38th ranked offense and the #61st ranked defense.

South Carolina is also 9-2 against a SOS equal to 66.0. South Carolina from the production model is the #11th most productive team in the nation, with the #43 ranked offense and the #7th ranked defense.

Thus according to the production model, South Carolina is the more productive team, and the team I would expect to win today's game.

Iowa - Nebraska 2011

With Nebraska moving to the Big 10 this season, Nebraska finishes out their conference schedule today at home against Iowa. In terms of the BCS, Nebraska is a significantly higher ranked team than Iowa (unranked). Let's take a look how the two teams fare under the production model.

Iowa is currently 7-4 against a SOS equal to 72.1. In the production model, the Hawkeyes are the #57 ranked team overall. Iowa is the #45 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense.

Nebraska is currently 8-3 against a SOS equal to 56.9. In the production model the Huskers are the #55 ranked team overall. On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska is the #55 ranked team, and on the defensive side of the ball the Huskers are the #47 ranked defense.

Thus the game should be competitive, with two slightly above average productive teams facing each other. I would say that the results of the model make calling the game too close to call.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin - 2011

Michigan State will face the winner of this game in the inaugural Big Ten Football Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. So let's take a look at Penn State and Wisconsin through the lens of the NCAA FBS Production model.

Penn State is currently 9-2. Penn State is the #24th ranked team overall, with the #80th ranked offense and the #6th ranked defense. Penn State has played up to this point in the season against a strength of schedule equal 61.5, which is slightly harder than on average. Penn State's regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Indiana St.		41		7		121		W
9/10/2011		Alabama		11		27		4		L
9/17/2011		Temple		14		10		16		W
9/24/2011		Eastern Mich.		34		6		78		W
10/1/2011		Indiana		16		10		111		W
10/8/2011		Iowa		13		3		57		W
10/15/2011		Purdue		23		18		87		W
10/22/2011		Northwestern		34		24		70		W
10/29/2011		Illinois		10		7		29		W
11/12/2011		Nebraska		14		17		55		L
11/19/2011		Ohio St.		20		14		49		W
11/26/2011		Wisconsin

Wisconsin is currently 9-2. The Badgers are the #2 highest ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense. The Badgers have a strength of schedule equal to 74.5, which is easier than an average FBS strength of schedule. Wisconsin's 2011 schedule is below.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/1/2011		UNLV		51		17		110		W
9/10/2011		Oregon St.		35		0		93		W
9/17/2011		Northern Ill.		49		7		45		W
9/24/2011		South Dakota		59		10		121		W
10/1/2011		Nebraska		48		17		55		W
10/15/2011		Indiana		59		7		111		W
10/22/2011		Michigan St.		31		37		6		L
10/29/2011		Ohio St.		29		33		49		L
11/5/2011		Purdue		62		17		87		W
11/12/2011		Minnesota		42		13		113		W
11/19/2011		Illinois		28		17		29		W
11/26/2011		Penn St.

Michigan - Ohio State 2011

Michigan plays Ohio State this weekend.

Michigan is currently 9-2 against a SOS of 59.6. The University of Michigan Wolverines currently ranks #18 in the nation overall. The Wolverines are #18 ranked offense and #31 ranked defense. Here is Michigan's regular season schedule.

Date

Opponent

Venue

PF

PA

SOS

Result

9/3/2011

Western Mich.

Home

34

10

83

W

9/10/2011

Notre Dame

Home

35

31

52

W

9/17/2011

Eastern Mich.

Home

31

3

78

W

9/24/2011

San Diego St.

Home

28

7

25

W

10/1/2011

Minnesota

Home

58

0

113

W

10/8/2011

Northwestern

Away

42

24

70

W

10/15/2011

Michigan St.

Away

14

28

6

L

10/29/2011

Purdue

Home

36

14

87

W

11/5/2011

Iowa

Away

16

24

57

L

11/12/2011

Illinois

Away

31

14

29

W

11/19/2011

Nebraska

Home

45

17

55

W

11/26/2011

Ohio St.

Home

Ohio State which is currently 6-5 under a strength of schedule of 57.2. Ohio State ranks #49 in the nation overall. The Buckeyes are #83 ranked offense and #16 ranked defense. Here's are the Buckeyes regular season schedule and results.

Date

Opponent

Venue

PF

PA

SOS

Result

9/3/2011

Akron

Home

42

0

116

W

9/10/2011

Toledo

Home

27

22

26

W

9/17/2011

Miami (FL)

Away

6

24

56

L

9/24/2011

Colorado

Home

37

17

117

W

10/1/2011

Michigan St.

Home

7

10

6

L

10/8/2011

Nebraska

Away

27

34

55

L

10/15/2011

Illinois

Away

17

7

29

W

10/29/2011

Wisconsin

Home

33

29

2

W

11/5/2011

Indiana

Home

34

20

111

W

11/12/2011

Purdue

Away

23

26

87

L

11/19/2011

Penn St.

Home

14

20

24

L

11/26/2011

Michigan

Away

Given the data from the model, Michigan is the more productive team, and thus the model concludes that Michigan is the favorite this season.

LSU vs Arkansas - 2011

On November 25th LSU faces the University of Arkansas. In terms of BCS rankings, LSU is ranked #1 and Arkansas is ranked #3.

Earlier in the season, I examined LSU and Alabama. You will notice that the rankings and strength of schedule have changed since then, as more data changes each.

LSU is currently 11-0. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production model, LSU is the #3 ranked team overall with the #14 ranked offense and the 2nd highest ranked defense as of last weekend. LSU has played against a strength of schedule equal to 67.09, which is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Here is LSU's regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Oregon		40		27		8		W
9/10/2011		Northwestern St.		49		3		121		W
9/15/2011		Mississippi St.		19		6		63		W
9/24/2011		West Virginia		47		21		17		W
10/1/2011		Kentucky		35		7		102		W
10/8/2011		Florida		41		11		61		W
10/15/2011		Tennessee		38		7		73		W
10/22/2011		Auburn		45		10		80		W
11/5/2011		Alabama		9		6		4		W
11/12/2011		Western Ky.		42		9		97		W
11/19/2011		Ole Miss		52		3		112		W
11/25/2011		Arkansas

Arkansas is currently 10-1, with their only loss to Alabama. From the NCAA FBS production model, the University of Arkansas is the #20 ranked team overall with the #17 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense. Arkansas has played against a strength of schedule equal to 69.5 - again easier than the average strength of schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Missouri St.		51		7		121		W
9/10/2011		New Mexico		52		3		119		W
9/17/2011		Troy		38		28		95		W
9/24/2011		Alabama		14		38		4		L
10/1/2011		Texas A&M		42		38		47		W
10/8/2011		Auburn		38		14		80		W
10/22/2011		Ole Miss		29		24		112		W
10/29/2011		Vanderbilt		31		28		39		W
11/5/2011		South Carolina		44		28		11		W
11/12/2011		Tennessee		49		7		73		W
11/19/2011		Mississippi St.		44		17		63		W
11/25/2011		LSU

Thus in terms of the production model, LSU is the better team on defense relative to Arkansas' defense and thus from the data and the model's weights, LSU is expected to win.

Texas and Texas A&M in 2011

Texas and Texas A&M may be playing today for the last time in a while since Texas A&M is moving from the Big 12 conference to the SEC next year. So, let's take a look at this Thanksgiving game through the eyes of the NCAA FBS production model.

Texas is currently 6-4 playing as of last week against a strength of schedule of 65.7. Texas in the NCAA production model is currently the #32 ranked team overall, with their offense ranked #69 and their defense ranked #12. For a quick overview of the Longhorns season, here is their regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Rice		34		9		104		W
9/10/2011		BYU		17		16		40		W
9/17/2011		UCLA		49		20		66		W
10/1/2011		Iowa St.		37		14		96		W
10/8/2011		Oklahoma		17		55		10		L
10/15/2011		Oklahoma St.		26		38		7		L
10/29/2011		Kansas		43		0		120		W
11/5/2011		Texas Tech		52		20		99		W
11/12/2011		Missouri		5		17		41		L
11/19/2011		Kansas St.		13		17		74		L
11/24/2011		Texas A&M
12/3/2011		Baylor

Texas A&M is currently 6-5 against a strength of schedule of 61.2. The Texas A&M Aggies are currently ranked as the #47 team overall, with an offense ranked at #32 and their defense ranked at #57.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/4/2011		SMU		46		14		64		W
9/17/2011		Idaho		37		7		108		W
9/24/2011		Oklahoma St.		29		30		7		L
10/1/2011		Arkansas		38		42		20		L
10/8/2011		Texas Tech		45		40		99		W
10/15/2011		Baylor		55		28		34		W
10/22/2011		Iowa St.		33		17		96		W
10/29/2011		Missouri		31		38		41		L
11/5/2011		Oklahoma		25		41		10		L
11/12/2011		Kansas St.		50		53		74		L
11/19/2011		Kansas		61		7		120		W
11/24/2011		Texas

So in terms of the model, Texas is slightly more productive than Texas A&M, and thus from the model's viewpoint is favored in today's game.