Friday, December 24, 2021

2021 Hawai'i Bowl

Today in the Hawai'i Bowl the Memphis Tiger from American Athletic Conference face off against the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors from the Mountain West Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Memphis Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Memphis Tigers (6-6) of American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #25 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #122 currently ranked Temple
Current Total Production Rank:  #74
Current Offense Production Rank:  #68
Current Defense Production Rank:  #81

Hawai'i Rainbowl Warriors (6-7) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #30 currently ranked Frenso State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #115 currently ranked UNLV
Current Total Production Rank:  #94
Current Offense Production Rank:  #51
Current Defense Production Rank:  #110

Posted by at 11:00 AM

Thursday, December 23, 2021

2021 Gasparilla Bowl

Today in the Gasparilla Bowl the UCF Knights from American Athletic Conference face off against the Florida Gators from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Florida Gators.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

UCF Knights (8-4) of American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #54 currently ranked Boise State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #102 currently ranked Navy
Current Total Production Rank:  #49
Current Offense Production Rank:  #34
Current Defense Production Rank:  #66

Florida Gators (6-6) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #24 currently ranked Tennessee
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #100 currently ranked South Carolina
Current Total Production Rank:  #42
Current Offense Production Rank:  #28
Current Defense Production Rank:  #69

Posted by at 10:59 AM

2021 Frisco Football Classic Bowl

Today in the Frisco Football Classic Bowl the Miami (OH) Red Hawks of the Mid American Conference face off against the North Texas Mean Green from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Miami (OH) Red Hawks.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Miami (OH) Red Hawks (6-6) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #35 currently ranked Central Michigan
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #106 currently ranked Ohio
Current Total Production Rank:  #62
Current Offense Production Rank:  #50
Current Defense Production Rank:  #78

North Texas Mean Green (6-6) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #14 currently ranked UTSA
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #101 currently ranked Louisiana Tech
Current Total Production Rank:  #66
Current Offense Production Rank:  #45
Current Defense Production Rank:  #86

Posted by at 10:52 AM

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

2021 Armed Forces Bowl

Today in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl the Army Black Knights [Independent] face off against the Missouri Tigers from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Army Black Knights.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Army Black Knights (8-4) [Independent]
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #9 currently ranked Western Kentucky
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #102 currently ranked Navy
Current Total Production Rank:  #51
Current Offense Production Rank:  #70
Current Defense Production Rank:  #31

Missouri Tigers (6-6) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #35 currently ranked Central Michigan
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #89 currently ranked Boston College
Current Total Production Rank:  #92
Current Offense Production Rank:  #59
Current Defense Production Rank:  #103

Posted by at 10:47 AM

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

2021 Frisco Bowl

Today in the Frisco Bowl the UTSA Roadrunners from Conference USA face off against the San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the UTSA Roadrunners.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

UTSA Roadrunners (12-1) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #9 currently ranked Western Kentucky (twice)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #66 currently ranked North Texas
Current Total Production Rank:  #14
Current Offense Production Rank:  #10
Current Defense Production Rank:  #42

San Diego State Aztecs (11-2) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #6 currently ranked Utah
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #34 currently ranked Utah State
Current Total Production Rank:  #46
Current Offense Production Rank:  #75
Current Defense Production Rank:  #19

Posted by at 12:52 PM

2021 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Today in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl the Kent State Golden Flashes from the Mid American Conference against the Wyoming Cowboys from the Mountain West Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Wyoming Cowboys.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Kent State Golden Flashes (7-6) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #62 currently ranked Miami (OH)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #79 currently ranked Maryland
Current Total Production Rank:  #65
Current Offense Production Rank:  #11
Current Defense Production Rank:  #118

Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #34 currently ranked Utah State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #117 currently ranked New Mexico
Current Total Production Rank:  #63
Current Offense Production Rank:  #82
Current Defense Production Rank:  #41

Posted by at 10:13 AM

Monday, December 20, 2021

2021 Myrtle Beach Bowl

Today in the Myrtle Beach Bowl the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes from the American Athletic Conference against the Old Dominion Monarchs from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Old Dominion Monarchs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (6-6) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #37 currently ranked SMU
Lowest Ranked Loss:  FCS California-Davis
Current Total Production Rank:  #84
Current Offense Production Rank:  #79
Current Defense Production Rank:  #87

Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #70 currently ranked Middle Tennessee State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #95 currently ranked Buffalo
Current Total Production Rank:  #72
Current Offense Production Rank:  #77
Current Defense Production Rank:  #63

Posted by at 12:42 PM

Saturday, December 18, 2021

2021 New Orleans Bowl

Today in the New Orleans Bowl the Louisiana LaFayette Rajun Cajuns from the Sun Belt Conference against the Marshall Thundering Herd from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Louisiana LaFayette Rajun Cajuns.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Louisiana LaFayette Rajun Cajuns (12-1) of the Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #23 currently ranked Appalachian State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #73 currently ranked Texas
Current Total Production Rank:  #16
Current Offense Production Rank:  #16
Current Defense Production Rank:  #33

Marshall Thundering Herd (7-5) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #66 currently ranked North Texas
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #107 currently ranked Charlotte
Current Total Production Rank:  #32
Current Offense Production Rank:  #18
Current Defense Production Rank:  #62

Posted by at 1:19 PM

2021 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Today in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl the Utah State Aggies from the Mountain West Conference against the UTEP Miners from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Utah State Aggies.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Utah State Aggies (10-3) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #21 currently ranked Air Force
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #63 currently ranked Wyoming
Current Total Production Rank:  #34
Current Offense Production Rank:  #17
Current Defense Production Rank:  #75

Oregon State Beavers (7-5) of the Pac 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #6 currently ranked Utah
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #112 currently ranked Colorado
Current Total Production Rank:  #59
Current Offense Production Rank:  #47
Current Defense Production Rank:  #80

Posted by at 1:13 PM

2021 Lending Tree Bowl

Today in the Lending Tree Bowl the Eastern Michigan Eagles from the Mid American Conference against the Liberty Flames [Independent].  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Liberty Flames.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #13 currently ranked Toledo
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #106 currently ranked Ohio
Current Total Production Rank:  #88
Current Offense Production Rank:  #67
Current Defense Production Rank:  #94

Liberty Flames (7-5) [Independent]
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #61 currently ranked UAB
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #109 currently ranked Louisiana-Monroe
Current Total Production Rank:  #50
Current Offense Production Rank:  #60
Current Defense Production Rank:  #30

Posted by at 1:06 PM

2021 Independence Bowl

Today in the Independence Bowl the BYU Cougars (Independent) against the UAB Blazers from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the BYU Cougarss.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

BYU Cougars (10-2) [Independent]
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #6 currently ranked Utah
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #54 currently ranked Boise State
Current Total Production Rank:  #28
Current Offense Production Rank:  #20
Current Defense Production Rank:  #52

UAB Blazers (8-4) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #32 currently ranked Marshall
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #108 currently ranked Rice
Current Total Production Rank:  #61
Current Offense Production Rank:  #64
Current Defense Production Rank:  #55

Posted by at 12:57 PM

2021 New Mexico Bowl

Today in the New Mexico Bowl the Fresno State Bulldogs from the Mountain West Conference against the UTEP Miners from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Fresno State Bulldogs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #18 currently ranked Nevada
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #94 currently ranked Hawai'i
Current Total Production Rank:  #30
Current Offense Production Rank:  #35
Current Defense Production Rank:  #35

UTEP Miners (7-5) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #71 currently ranked Old Dominion
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #83 currently ranked Florida Atlantic
Current Total Production Rank:  #78
Current Offense Production Rank:  #95
Current Defense Production Rank:  #57

Posted by at 12:49 PM

2021 Boca Raton Bowl

Today the Boca Raton Bowl pits the Appalachian State Mountaineers from the Sun Belt Conference against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers from Conference USA.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3) of the Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #8 currently ranked Coastal Carolina
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #31 currently ranked Miami (FL)
Current Total Production Rank:  #23
Current Offense Production Rank:  #33
Current Defense Production Rank:  #37

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #32 currently ranked Marshall
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #123 currently ranked Indiana
Current Total Production Rank:  #9
Current Offense Production Rank:  #2
Current Defense Production Rank:  #85

Posted by at 8:41 AM

Friday, December 17, 2021

2021 Cure Bowl

Today the Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida pits the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from the Sun Belt Conference against the Northern Illinois Huskies from the Mid American Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (10-2) of the Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Much Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #71 currently ranked South Alabama
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #75 currently ranked Georgia State
Current Total Production Rank:  #8
Current Offense Production Rank:  #5
Current Defense Production Rank:  #32

Northern Illinois Huskies (9-4) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #13 currently ranked Toledo
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #65 currently ranked Kent State
Current Total Production Rank:  #96
Current Offense Production Rank:  #44
Current Defense Production Rank:  #117

Posted by at 11:41 AM

2021 Bahamas Bowl

Today the Bahamas Bowl pits the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders from the Conference USA against the Toledo Rockets from the Mid American Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Toledo Rockets.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Middle Tennessee State (6-6) of the Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #32 currently ranked Marshall
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #107 currently ranked Charlotte
Current Total Production Rank:  #70
Current Offense Production Rank:  #72
Current Defense Production Rank:  #68

Toledo Rockets (7-5) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #40 currently ranked Western Michigan
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #96 currently ranked Northern Illinois
Current Total Production Rank:  #13
Current Offense Production Rank:  #29
Current Defense Production Rank:  #9

Posted by at 11:34 AM

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Steve Addazio Fired as Head Football Coach at Colorado State

Steve Addazio was fired earlier this month as the head football coach for the Colorado State Rams.  Addazio was 4-16 in two seasons at the helm of the Rams.  Here is a look at the Colorado State football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last four seasons of head football coach Fairchild (2008-2011), Jim McElwain (2012-2014), Mike Bobo (2015-2019) and Steve Addazio (2020-2021).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Colorado State Rams football program during head coach Addazio's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Steve Addazio 

2020
Colorado State finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 1-3, playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Colorado State's only regular season victory was against #74 ranked Wyoming (34-24) and their worst loss was to #68 ranked Boise State (21-52).  Colorado State was the #983 ranked team overall, with the #124 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
After the Rams finished at 3-9, Addazio was fired.  Colorado State played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Colorado State's best win was against currently ranked #13 Toledo by a score of (22-6) and their current worst loss was to FCS South Dakota State by a score of (23-42).  Colorado State is currently the #90 ranked team overall, with the #97 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
Posted by at 5:00 PM

Monday, December 13, 2021

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the University of Georgia Bulldogs.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Alabama
4 Cincinnati
5 Michigan
6 Utah
7 Pittsburgh
8 Coastal Carolina
9 Western Kentucky
10 Oklahoma State
11 Houston
12 Notre Dame
13 Toledo
14 UTSA
15 Baylor
16 Louisiana-Lafayette
17 Iowa State
18 Nevada
19 Mississippi
20 Wisconsin
21 Air Force
22 North Carolina State
23 Appalachian State
24 Tennessee
25 Mississippi State

Prior 2021 Week Rankings

Posted by at 11:38 AM

Monday, December 6, 2021

David Cutcliffe was fired as head football coach at Duke

At the end of last month, David Cutcliffe was fired as Duke's head football coach.  Here is a look at the Duke football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last fourteen seasons of head football coach Cutcliffe (2008-2021).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Duke Blue Devils football program during head coach Cutcliffe's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

David Cutcliffe

2008
Duke finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Blue Devil's SOS was within plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS.  Duke's best regular season victory was against #41 ranked Navy (41-31) and their worst loss was to #79 ranked North Carolina State (17-27).  Duke was the #81 ranked team overall, with the #88 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2009
Duke finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #74 ranked North Carolina State (49-28) and worst loss was to FCS Richmond (16-24).  Duke was the #82 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #59 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2010
Duke again finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #42 ranked Navy (34-31) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Wake Forest (48-54).  Duke was the #109 ranked team overall, with the #96 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2011
Duke finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Blue Devils SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "leagues" average SOS.  Duke's best regular season victory was against #37 ranked Florida International (31-27) and their worst loss was to FCS Richmond (21-23).  Duke was the #110 ranked team overall, with the #116 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2012
Duke finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they played #8 ranked Cincinnati and were defeated (34-48) to finish 6-7 overall.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #26 ranked North Carolina (33-30) and their worst loss was to #74 ranked Miami (FL) (45-52).  Duke was the #92 ranked team overall, with the #66 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2013 [ACC Runner-Up]
Duke finished the regular season at 10-2, and were played in the ACC conference championship game where they lost to #1 ranked Florida State (7-45) and also lost their bowl game to #32 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (48-52) to finish 10-4 overall. The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #41 ranked North Carolina (27-25) and their worst loss was to #67 ranked Pittsburgh (55-58).  Duke was the #63 ranked team overall, with the #36 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2014
Duke finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #35 ranked Arizona State (31-36) to finish at 9-4 overall.  The Blue Devils played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Blue Devils SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "leagues" average SOS.  Duke's best regular season victory was against #15 ranked Georgia Tech (31-25) and their worst loss was to #98 ranked North Carolina (20-45).  Duke was the #41 ranked team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. 
 
2015
Duke finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #92 ranked Indiana (44-41) to finish at 8-5 overall.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #34 ranked Boston College (9-7) and their worst loss was to #94 ranked Virginia (34-42).  Duke was the #75 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
Duke finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #20 ranked Army (13-6) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Virginia (20-34).  Duke was the #92 ranked team overall, with the #105 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2017
Duke finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #34 ranked Northern Illinois (36-14) to finish at 7-6 overall.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #32 ranked Northwestern (41-17) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Virginia (21-28).  Duke was the #68 ranked team overall, with the #90 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2018
Duke finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible where they defeated #39 ranked Temple (56-27) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Blue Devils played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #18 ranked Army (34-14) and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Wake Forest (7-59).  Duke was the #85 ranked team overall, with the #72 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2019
Duke finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible.  The Blue Devils played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #33 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (27-17) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Syracuse (6-49).  Duke was the #102 ranked team overall, with the #115 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
Duke finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 2-9, playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best regular season victory was against #86 ranked Charlotte (53-19) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Florida State (35-56).  Duke was the #123 ranked team overall, with the #56 ranked offense and the #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
After the Blue Devils finished at 4-8, Cutcliffe was fired.  Duke played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Duke's best win was against currently ranked #111 Northwestern by a score of (30-23) and their current worst loss was to #107 ranked Charlotte by a score of (28-31).  Duke is currently the #92 ranked team overall, with the #105 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Posted by at 10:51 AM

Sunday, December 5, 2021

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the University of Georgia Bulldogs.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Alabama
4 Cincinnati
5 Michigan
6 Utah
7 Pittsburgh
8 Coastal Carolina
9 Western Kentucky
10 Oklahoma State
11 Houston
12 Notre Dame
13 UTSA
14 Toledo
15 Baylor
16 Louisiana-Lafayette
17 Iowa State
18 Nevada
19 Mississippi
20 Air Force
21 Wisconsin
22 Appalachian State
23 North Carolina State
24 Tennessee
25 Oklahoma

Prior 2021 Week Rankings

Posted by at 5:13 PM

Friday, December 3, 2021

Temple Fired Head Football Coach Rod Carey

Earlier this week, Temple fired their head football coach Rod Carey after three seasons at the helm of the Temple Owls.  Here is a look at the Temple football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last three seasons of head football coach Al Golden (2008-2010), Steve Addazio (2011-2012), Matt Rhule (2013-2016), Geoff Collins (2017-2018), and Rod Carey (2019-2021).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Temple Owls football program during head coach Carey's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).


Rod Carey

2019 
Temple finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated #34 ranked North Carolina by a score of (13-55) to finish the season at 8-5 overall.  The Owls played against a “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Owls SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS.  Temple's best regular season victory was against #27 ranked Memphis (30-28) and their worst loss was to #41 ranked SMU (21-45).  Temple was the #71 ranked team overall, with the #84 ranked offense and the #59 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
Temple finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 1-6, playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Temple's best regular season victory was against #116 ranked USF (39-37) and their worst loss was to #117 ranked Navy (29-31).  Temple was the #115 ranked team overall, with the #108 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
After finishing 3-9, Carey was fired.  Temple played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) up to this point in the season.  Temple's best win was against currently ranked #73 Memphis by a score of (34-31) and their worst regular season loss was to #118 ranked USF by a score of (14-34).  Temple is currently the #120 ranked team overall, with the #120 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
Posted by at 1:49 PM

Thursday, December 2, 2021

Doug Martin will not be Renewed as head football coach at New Mexico State

Doug Martin's contract will not be renewed as the head football coach at New Mexico State.  Here is a look at the New Mexico State football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last five seasons of head football coach DeWayne Walker (2008-2012), and Doug Martin (2013-2021).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the New Mexico State Aggies football program during head coach Martin's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Doug Martin [contract]

2013
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 2-10, and were bowl ineligible.  The Aggies played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Bulldogs SOS was between one and  two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #125 ranked Idaho (24-16) and their worst loss was to #116 ranked UTEP (21-42).  New Mexico State was the #117 ranked team overall, with the #92 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense (a top 10 worst defense in all of the FBS) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2014
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 2-10.  The Aggies played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #126 ranked Georgia State (34-31) and their worst loss was to #122 ranked Idaho (17-29).  New Mexico State was the #117 ranked team overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense (a top 10 worst defense in all of the FBS) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. 
 
2015
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Aggies played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #104 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette (37-34) and their worst loss was to #124 ranked Louisiana-Monroe (35-42).  New Mexico State was the #119 ranked team overall, with the #75 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense (a top 10 worst defense in all of the FBS) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Aggies played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Aggies SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS.  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #33 ranked New Mexico (32-31) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Kentucky (42-62).  New Mexico State was the #120 ranked team overall, with the #96 ranked offense and the #120 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2017 
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible for the first time in 57 years, where they defeated #62 ranked Utah State by a score of (26-20) to finish at 7-6 overall.  The Aggies played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #89 ranked Idaho (17-10) and their worst loss was to #108 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette (34-47).  New Mexico State was the #65 ranked team overall, with the #35 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2018
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 3-9.  The Aggies played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #98 ranked LIberty (49-41) and their worst loss was to in-state rival #115 ranked New Mexico (25-42).  New Mexico State was the #124 ranked team overall (a top 10 worst overall FBS program), with the #118 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2019
New Mexico State finished the regular season at 2-10, and were bowl ineligible.  The Aggies played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best regular season victory was against #121 ranked UTEP (44-35) and their worst loss was again to in-state rival #120 ranked New Mexico (52-55).  New Mexico State was the #125 ranked team overall (a top 10 worst overall FBS program), with the #116 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense (a top 10 worst FBS defense) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
New Mexico State finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 1-1 during the Spring of 2021, playing only against two FCS schools (and thus I did not evaluate the Aggies team performance).
 
2021
After finishing at 2-10, head football coach Martin was not renewed/fired.  New Mexico State played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  New Mexico State's best win was against currently ranked #130 Massachusetts by a score of (44-27) and their worst regular season loss was to #119 ranked New Mexico by a score of (25-34).  New Mexico State is currently the #117 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense (a top 10 worst FBS defense) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

 

Posted by at 12:08 PM

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Louisiana Tech Fires Head Football Coach Skip Holtz

Louisiana Tech announced that its has fired Skip Holtz as their head football coach.  Here is a look at the Louisiana Tech football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last two seasons of head football coach Derek Dooley (2008-2009), Sonny Dykes (2010-2012), and Skip Holtz (2013-2021).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs football program during head coach Holtz's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Skip Holtz [contract]

2013
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Bulldogs played against a “much easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Bulldogs SOS was higher than two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #116 ranked UTEP (38-35) and their worst loss was to #114 ranked Kansas (10-13).  Louisiana Tech was the #88 ranked team overall, with the #100 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2014 [CUSA runner-up]
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 8-4, and played in the CUSA Championship game where they were defeated by #5 ranked Marshall and played in a bowl game, where they defeated #93 ranked Illinois (35-18) to finish at 9-5 overall.  The Bulldogs played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Bulldogs SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS.  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #48 ranked Kentucky (59-10) and their worst loss was to FCS Northwestern State (27-30).  Louisiana Tech was the #9 ranked team overall, with the #17 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. 
 
2015
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #77 ranked Arkansas State (47-28) to finish at 9-4 overall.  The Bulldogs played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning the Bulldogs SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #56 ranked Middle Tennessee State (45-16) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Kansas State (33-39).  Louisiana Tech was the #19 ranked team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016 [CUSA runner-up]
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 8-4, and played in the CUSA Championship game where they were defeated by #10 ranked Western Kentucky and played in a bowl game, where they defeated by #40 ranked Navy by a score of (48-45).  The Bulldogs played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #10 ranked Western Kentucky (55-52) and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Texas Tech (45-59).  Louisiana Tech was the #23 ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2017 
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #75 ranked SMU (51-10) to finish at 7-6 overall.  The Bulldogs played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #38 ranked UTSA (20-6) and their worst loss was to #77 ranked North Texas (23-24).  Louisiana Tech was the #54 ranked team overall, with the #49 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2018
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible where they defeated #107 Hawaii (31-14) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Bulldogs played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #38 ranked North Texas (29-27) and their worst loss was to #99 ranked Western Kentucky (15-30).  Louisiana Tech was the #53 ranked team overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2019
Louisiana Tech finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #33 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (14-0) to finish the season at 10-3 overall.  The Bulldogs played against a “much easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #75 ranked Southern Mississippi (45-30) and their worst loss was to #59 ranked Texas (14-45).  Louisiana Tech was the #25 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
Louisiana Tech finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 5-4, playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), and played in a bowl game where they lost to #19 ranked Georgia Southern (3-38).  Louisiana Tech's best regular season victory was against #21 ranked UAB (37-34) and their worst loss was to #36 ranked TCU (10-52).  Louisiana Tech was the #104 ranked team overall, with the #70 ranked offense and the #106 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
After finishing 3-9, Holtz was fired.  Louisiana Tech played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) up to this point in the season.  Louisiana Tech's best win was against currently ranked #66 North Texas by a score of (24-17) and their worst regular season loss was to #114 ranked Southern Mississippi by a score of (19-35).  Louisiana Tech is currently the #98 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 


Posted by at 11:18 AM
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