Baylor Fires Art Briles

Last week Baylor University fired head football coach Art Briles as a result of a report regarding the universities handling of sexual misconduct by football players against other Baylor students.  The incidence report from a third party law firm details problems under former head coach Briles' tenure at Baylor.  While the reasons for firing Briles are shocking and unconscionably, I do still want to look at the football program under Briles tenure as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Baylor Bears football program during Briles' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Baylor's offense has been excellent over the last few years under Briles' tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Briles are after the chart below.

Art Briles (2008 - 2015)

2008
At the end of the Briles first season as head football coach, the Bears were 4-8 (bowl ineligible) while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was between one to two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best win was over #104 ranked Iowa State (38-10) and their worst loss was to #40 ranked Nebraska by a score of (20-32).  Baylor had the #50 ranked team in total production with the #46 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Bears again finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  Baylor again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best regular season game was a victory (40-32) over #47 Missouri and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Iowa State (10-24).  Overall, the Bears had the #103 ranked team with the #105 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Baylor finished the regular season overall at 7-5 (bowl eligible) and were defeated by #18 ranked Illinois in their post-season bowl game by a score of (14-38) to finish the season at 7-6.  Baylor played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that their current strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best game again was their victory over #70 ranked Texas (30-22) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas Tech (38-45).  Baylor had the #51 ranked team in total production with the #27 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
At the end of the regular season the Bears were 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated #70 Washington in a shoot-out in the Alamo Bowl (67-56) to finish 10-3 overall, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best win was over #9 ranked TCU (50-48) and their worst loss was to #61 ranked Kansas State by a score of (35-36).  Baylor had the #26 ranked team in total production with the #3 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Bears were 7-5 (bowl eligible) winning their post-season bowl game over #36 ranked UCLA by a score of (49-26) to finish 8-5 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.   The Bears best win was over #17 ranked Kansas State (52-24) and their worst loss was to #72 ranked Iowa State by a score of (21-35).  Baylor had the #49 ranked team in total production with the #3 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense (2nd from last in all of the FBS) from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of the regular season the Bears were 11-1 (bowl eligible) losing their post-season bowl game to #20 ranked University of Central Florida by a score of (42-53) to finish 11-2 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best win was again over #28 ranked Kansas State (35-25) and their only regular season loss was to #15 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (17-49).  Baylor had the #4 ranked team in total production with the #2 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 
The Bears again finished the regular season at 11-1 and were bowl eligible and again lost their post-season bowl game, this time to #3 ranked Michigan State by a score of (41-42).  Baylor played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best regular season game was a victory (61-58) over #1 ranked TCU and their only regular season loss was to #67 ranked West Virginia (27-41).  Overall, the Bears had the #6 ranked team with the #5 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 
Baylor finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #29 ranked North Carolina in their post-season bowl game by a score of (49-38) to finish the season at 10-3.  Baylor played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was one standard deviation higher than the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best game again was their victory over #33 ranked West Virginia (62-38) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Texas (17-23).  Baylor had the #15 ranked team in total production with the #2 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Gary Pinkel Resigns as Head Football Coach

Gary Pinkel is resigning as head football coach from the University of Missouri due to health related concerns.  Coach Pinkel has been at the helm of the Missouri Tigers football program since 2001.  The model that I use goes back to the 2008 season, so I will only look at the last eight seasons of Pinkel's tenure.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Missouri Tigers football program during Pinkel's tenure as head football coach since the 2008 season, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Missouri has been up and down during the last few years under Pinkel's tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Pinkel are after the chart below, including contract information.

Gary Pinkel [2001-2015]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 9-4 and bowl eligible in which Missouri defeated #54 ranked Northwestern (30-23) to finish the season at 10-4.  Missouri  played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation to the "league's" average SOS.  The Tigers best win was over #32 ranked Nevada by a score of (69-17) and their worst loss was to #42 ranked Kansas by a score of (37-40).  Missouri had the #16 ranked team in total production with the #4 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 8-4 and bowl eligible, but lost to #32 ranked Navy (13-35) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season victory was over #30 ranked Nevada (31-21) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Baylor by a score of (32-40).  Missouri had the #47 ranked team in total production with the #43 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010 
The Tigers again finished the regular season at 10-2 and were again bowl eligible where they were defeated by #17 Iowa by a score of (24-27).  Missouri again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season game was a victory (36-27) over #12 Oklahoma and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (17-24).  Overall, the Tigers had the #14 ranked team with the #30 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011 
Missouri finished the regular season overall at 7-5 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #36 ranked North Carolina in their post-season bowl game by a score of (41-24) to finish the season at 8-5.  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game again was their victory over #33 ranked Texas A&M (38-31) and their worst loss was to #62 ranked Arizona State (30-37).  Missouri had the #31 ranked team in total production with the #17 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012 
Missouri moved from the Big 12 conference to the SEC conference during this season and the Tigers had a rough start in the new conference.  At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 5-7 and were bowl ineligible, while playing against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Missouri's SOS was more than two standard deviations below the "leagues" average SOS.  The Tigers best win was over #19 ranked UCF (21-16) and their worst loss was to #38 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (15-19).  Missouri had the #93 ranked team in total production with the #95 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2013
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 11-2 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #15 Oklahoma State (41-31) to finish 12-2 overall.  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season victory was against #32 Texas A&M (28-21) and their worst loss was to #30 ranked Auburn by a score of (42-59).  Missouri had the #13 ranked team in total production with the #9 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Tigers again finished the regular season at 10-3 and were again bowl eligible, and defeated #45 ranked Minnesota by a score of (33-17).  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season game was a victory (21-14) over #22 Arkansas and their worst loss was to #94 ranked Indiana by a score of (27-31).  Overall, the Tigers had the #27 ranked team with the #46 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Missouri finished the regular season overall at 5-7 and bowl eligible while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game again was their victory over #42 ranked BYU (20-16) and their worst loss was to #89 ranked Vanderbilt (3-10).  Missouri was a contrast in opposites this season, with the #65 ranked team in total production with the #125 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Frank Beamer Retires from Virginia Tech

Last November Virginia Tech's head football coach announced that he was retiring at the end of the season.  Now that the season is over, I have decided to take a look at the last part of coach Beamer at the helm of the Virginia Tech football program in terms of team productivity starting in 2008, since that is when the data I use for the college football production model begins.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Virginia Tech Hokies football program during Beamer's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Virginia Tech has been up and down during the last few years under Beamer's tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Beamer are after the chart below, including contract information.

Frank Beamer [2013 Contract Extension]

2008
In the first year of the model, the Hokies finished the regular season at 9-4 (bowl eligible), and defeated #31 ranked Cincinnati (20-7) to finish at 10-4 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  The Hokies best win was their bowl victory over Cincinnati and their worst loss was to #58 ranked East Carolina by a score of (22-27).  Virginia Tech had the #37 ranked team in total production with the #67 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Hokies again finished the regular season at 9-3 and were bowl eligible, defeating #22 ranked Tennessee (37-14) to finish 10-3 overall.  Virginia Tech played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Virginia Tech's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the average SOS for the "league".  The Hokies best regular season game was a victory (16-15) over #16 Nebraska and their worst loss was to #33 ranked North Carolina (17-20).  Overall, the Hokies had the #6 ranked team with the #21 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Virginia Tech finished the regular season overall at 11-2 (bowl eligible) and were defeated by #11 ranked Stanford in their post-season bowl game by a score of (12-40) to finish the season at 11-3.  Virginia Tech played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hokies best game again was their victory over #23 ranked Florida State (44-33) and their worst loss was to FCS James Madison (16-21).  Virginia Tech had the #19 ranked team in total production with the #14 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
At the end of the regular season the Hokies were again 11-2 (bowl eligible) and again lost their bowl game, this time to #10 ranked Michigan (20-23) to finish 11-3 overall, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hokies best win was over #17 ranked Georgia Tech (37-26) and their worst loss was to #59 ranked Clemson (twice) by a score of (3-23 & 10-38).  Virginia Tech had the #20 ranked team in total production with the #39 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
At the end of the regular season the Hokies were 6-6 (bowl eligible) winning their post-season bowl game over #16 ranked Rutgers by a score of (13-10) to finish 7-6 overall, while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.   The Hokies best win was bowl game victory and their worst loss was to #74 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (22-28).  Virginia Tech had the #68 ranked team in total production with the #83 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of the regular season the Hokies were 8-4 (bowl eligible) losing their post-season bowl game to #26 ranked UCLA by a score of (12-42) to finish 8-5 overall, again playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hokies best win was again over #8 ranked Marshall (29-21) and their worst loss was to #73 ranked Boston College by a score of (27-34).  Virginia Tech had the #54 ranked team in total production with the #95 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Hokies again finished the regular season at 6-6 and were bowl eligible and won their post-season bowl game to #29 ranked Cincinnati by a score of (33-17).  Virginia Tech for a third straight year played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hokies best regular season game was a victory (35-21) over #4 ranked Ohio State and their worst loss was to #119 ranked Wake Forest (3-6).  Overall, the Hokies had the #56 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Virginia Tech finished the regular season overall at 6-6 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #103 ranked Tulsa in their post-season bowl game by a score of (55-52) to finish the season at 7-6.  Virginia Tech played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Hokies best game again was their victory over #34 ranked Boston College (26-10) and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Miami (FL) (20-30).  Virginia Tech had the #71 ranked team in total production with the #74 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 NCAA FBS Competitive Balance

Now that the NCAA FBS season is over, let's take a look at how competitive the "league" was this year. For the 2015 season the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure was 1.564 for all games played.  Here are previous NCAA FBS season's measures of competitive balance (2002-2012) and (2013-2014) for the league as a whole including all the post season games in the NCAA FBS.  For those that are interested in calculating this on their own, here is a step-by-step guide as to how to perform the Noll-Scully competitive balance calculation.

As you can see from the chart above, that competitive balance among NCAA FBS teams has not changed much from one year to the next.  In fact the average Noll-Scully is 1.526 for this time period.  Of those listed only the 2005 and 2014 NCAA FBS seasons were more competitive than the average (i.e. had a Noll-Scully that was less than one standard deviation below the mean) and the 2003 and 2013 NCAA FBS seasons were less competitive than the average (i.e. had a Noll-Scully that was greater than one standard deviation above the mean).

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Final Rankings

With the NCAA FBS season over, here are the Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  I am surprised by the result as well.

Rank	Team
1	Appalachian State
2	Oklahoma
3	Ohio State
4	San Diego State
5	Navy
6	Mississippi
7	Alabama
8	Boise State
9	Houston
10	LSU
11	Clemson
12	Stanford
13	Georgia
14	Western Kentucky
15	Baylor
16	Florida State
17	Arkansas
18	South Florida
19	Louisiana Tech
20	Wisconsin
21	Toledo
22	Iowa
23	Bowling Green
24	Michigan
25	Georgia Southern

Larry Coker Fired by UTSA

Larry Coker has been fired by UTSA.  Coker was the first head football coach at UTSA.  Here is a look at the UTSA program under Coker and well as his contract.

Larry Coker [2012-2015]

2012
In UTSA's first season as a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the Roadrunners finished the regular season at 8-4, but were bowl ineligible since they played four FCS schools going 4-0, but only one of those wins counts towards bowl eligibility, so really the Roadrunners were 4-4 in the FBS.  The Roadrunners played against a “much easier” strength of schedule, meaning the Roadrunners strength of schedule was more than two standard deviation higher than the the "league" average strength of schedule.  UTSA's best regular season victory against in-state rival #99 ranked Texas State by a score of (38-31) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Rice by a score of (14-34).  UTSA finished the season as the #84 ranked team overall, with the #102 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2013
The Roadrunners finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible, but uninvited.  The Roadrunners played against an “average” strength of schedule, meaning that UTSA's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  UTSA's best regular season victory against #33 ranked North Texas by a score of (21-13) and UTSA's worst loss was to #50 ranked Rice by a score of (21-27).  The Roadrunners finished the season as the #66 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
UTSA finished the regular season at 5-7, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule and were bowl ineligible.  UTSA's best regular season victory against #9 ranked Louisiana Tech by a score of (27-20) and their worst loss was to #107 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (37-41).  UTSA finished the season as the #100 ranked team overall, with the #120 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
At the conclusion of the regular season, UTSA fired head football coach Larry Coker after going 3-9.  UTSA played against an “easier” strength of schedule, meaning that the Roadrunners SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "leagues" average SOS.  UTSA's best victory was against #109 ranked Rice by a score of (34-24) and their worst loss was to #126 ranked North Texas by a score of (23-30).  UTSA's production rankings are:  #105 team overall, with the #108 offense and the #89 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Mike London out at Virginia

Mike London is out as head football coach at the University of Virginia after six seasons at the helm of the University of Virginia Cavaliers.  During his time at the helm of the Cavaliers football program, he was 27-46.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of Virginia Cavaliers football program during London's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, the University of Virginia has actually been below average in terms of overall team production over coach London's tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under London are after the chart below, including his contract linked below.

Mike London (2010-2015)

2010
In London's first season as head football coach the University of Virginia Cavaliers finished the regular season at 4-8, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Virginia was plus or minus one standard deviation between the "league's" average SOS.  The Cavaliers best game was a (24-19) victory over #36 ranked Miami (FL) and their worst regular season losses all came against #109 ranked Duke by a score of (48-55).  Overall, Virginia had the #85 ranked team with the #79 ranked offense and the #87 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
The Cavaliers finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible. Virginia lost the Chick-fil-A  bowl to #85 ranked Auburn by a score of (24-43) to finish at 8-5.  This season the Cavaliers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best regular season game was a victory (24-21) over #17 ranked Georgia Tech, their worst regular season loss was to #42 ranked North Carolina by a score of (14-28).  Overall, the Cavaliers had the #74 ranked team with the #83 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
Virginia finished the regular season overall at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cavaliers best game was a victory (17-16) over #34 ranked Penn State and their worst loss (10-16) was to #97 ranked Wake Forest.  Virginia had the #86 ranked team in total production with the #96 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
In terms of wins and losses, this was the low point in London's tenure at the healm of the football program, where Virginia finished the regular season at 2-10, playing against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Virginia was within one to two standard deviation's below the "league's" average SOS.  Their best games was at victory over #38 ranked BYU (19-16) and their worst loss was to #67 ranked Pittsburgh by a score of (3-14).  Overall, Virginia had the #110 ranked team with the #116 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 
The Cavaliers finished the regular season at 5-7 and were again bowl ineligible. This season the Panthers played again against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Cavaliers best game was a victory (23-21) over #19 ranked Louisville, their worst regular season loss was to #98 ranked North Carolina (27-28).  Overall, the Cavaliers had the #68 ranked team with the #93 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 
Virginia finished the regular season overall at 4-8, while playing against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Cavaliers best game was a victory (27-21) was over #63 ranked Georgia Tech and their worst loss (20-23) was to #74 ranked Virginia Tech.  Virginia had the #95 ranked team in total production with the #103 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow 
University of Louisiana-Monroe and Toddy Berry 
Iowa State University and Paul Rhoades 
Syracuse University and Scott Shafer 
Tulane University and Curtis Johnson