Chick-fil-A Bowl 2013

In this years Chick-fil-A bowl we have the Texas A&M Aggies of the SEC playing the Duke Blue Devils of the ACC.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Chick-fil-A Bowl 2013
	Aggies	Blue Devils
Wins	8	10
Losses	4	3
Total	28	65
Offense	6	46
Defense	101	88
SOS	53.50	68.92
Best	33	39
Worst	25	63

Duke finished the regular season at 10-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The best game was against currently ranked #39 Virginia Tech and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #63 Pittsburgh.  Duke finished the regular season as the currently ranked #65 team in total production and the #46 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense.

Texas A&M finished the regular season at  8-4 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule.  The Aggies best game was against #33 Rice and their worst game was against #25 Auburn.  Texas A&M currently has the #6 most productive offense but only the #101 ranked defense leading the #28 ranked team production overall.

Texas A&M is more productive than Duke so the model "predicts" that Texas A&M will be the winner of the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl 2013

AutoZone Liberty Bowl has the Rice Owls of Conference USA against Mississippi State Bulldogs of the SEC.   Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Liberty Bowl 2013
	Owls	Bulldogs
Wins	10	6
Losses	3	6
Total	33	47
Offense	40	58
Defense	34	35
SOS	73.00	46.42
Best	16	10
Worst	34	25

The Rice Owls finished the regular season at 10-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  Rice's best game this season was 41-24 victory over currently ranked #16 Marshall in the Conference USA championship game and their worst game was a 16-28 loss to currently ranked #34 North Texas.  So of their three losses, all were to teams in the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model top 40.  In terms of overall production the Owls finished the regular season as the #33 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #40 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.  Overall, an excellent showing for the Owls this season.

Mississippi State finished the regular season at 6-6 playing against the second most difficult strength of schedule this season.  The Bulldogs SOS was "much tougher" than the "league" average, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations lower than the league average.  The Bulldogs best game was a victory over currently ranked #10 Bowling Green and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #25 Auburn.  Think about that.  The Bulldogs have played seven team that are currently ranked in the top 25 of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  In terms of on-field production, the Bulldogs are currently ranked as the #47 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision with the currently ranked #58 offense and #35 ranked defense.

Given that Rice is ranked higher than Mississippi State, the model "predicts" that Rice will be victorious in the Liberty Bowl.

Sun Bowl 2013

The Sun Bowl this year has the UCLA Bruins of the Pac 12 Conference playing the Virginia Tech Hokies of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Sun Bowl 2013
	Hokies	Bruins
Wins	8	9
Losses	4	3
Total	39	32
Offense	97	33
Defense	5	40
SOS	55.08	61.58
Best	16	12
Worst	72	29

UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Bruins best game was a win over currently ranked #12 Washington and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #29 Stanford.  On the field, UCLA currently has the #32 most productive team overall with the #33 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense.

Virginia Tech finished at 8-4 playing a "tougher" strength of schedule. The Hokies best game was a win over currently ranked #16 Marshall and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #72 Boston College.  On the field, the Hokies currently have the #39 most productive team in the FBS with the #97 ranked offense and the #5 defense.

Given that UCLA is more productive, the model "predicts" that UCLA will be the winner of the Sun Bowl.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl 2013

The AdvoCare V100 Bowl pits the Arizona Wildcats of the Pacific Athletic Conference against the Boston College Eagles of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Here is some information about these two teams regular season in anticipation of this game today using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Below is quick view table of these two teams during this season and then after is more details and a "prediction".

AdvoCare V100 Bowl 2013
	Wildcats	Eagles
Wins	7	7
Losses	5	5
Total	56	72
Offense	57	66
Defense	58	69
SOS	62.58	67.67
Best	5	39
Worst	81	74

The Arizona Wildcats finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS). The Wildcats best game this season (win over highest ranked team) was a 42-16 victory over currently ranked #5 Oregon; and their worst performance (loss over lowest ranked team) was a 17-24 loss to currently ranked #81 Washington State.  On the field Arizona is currently the #56 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the currently ranked #57 offense and #58 defense.


Boston College also finished 7-5, while also playing against an "average" SOS.  The Eagles best game was a 34-27 victory over currently ranked #39 Virginia Tech, and their worst performance was a 31-34 defeat by currently ranked #74 Syracuse.   On the field, the Eagles currently are the #72 most productive team in the FBS, with the currently ranked #66 offense and #69 defense - both just a little below average as compared to the rest of the "league".

 We have two very similar teams in that each has a great running back and each has played a similar schedule with similar results but Arizona has been slightly more productive on both sides of the ball as compared to Boston College.  Thus the model "predicts" that Arizona will be the winner of the AdvoCare V100 Bowl game this year.

Holiday Bowl 2013

In the Holiday Bowl we have the Arizona State Sun Devils of the Pac 12 Conference playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders of the Big 12 Conference.  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Holiday Bowl 2013
	Sun Devils	Red Raiders
Wins	10	7
Losses	3	5
Total	22	71
Offense	19	43
Defense	41	97
SOS	56.92	68.58
Best	8	69
Worst	85	57

Arizona State finished the regular season at 10-3 (including a loss to Stanford in the Pac 12 Conference championship game) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  ASU's best game was that controversial finish against currently ranked #8 Wisconsin and their worst game was a defeat to currently ranked #85 Notre Dame. In terms of production, ASU is currently the #22 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.  They have the #19 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense.

Texas Tech finished the regular season at 7-5 also playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Red Raiders best game was a win against currently ranked #69 TCU and their worst game was a loss to currently ranked #57 Texas.  Texas Tech started at 7-0 (all against teams that were below average) and lost the last five games (all against teams that were above average).  On the field, the Red Raiders are currently the #71 most productive team in the FBS and their offense is currently ranked as the #43 team and their defense is currently ranked #97.

The model "predicts" that Arizona State will be victorious in tonight's Holiday Bowl.

Alamo Bowl 2013

The Alamo Bowl pits the Oregon Ducks of the Pac 12 against the Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 in head football coach Mack Brown's final game at the helm of the Longhorns.  (Here are more details of the Longhorns under Brown since 2008).  Below is an analysis of these two teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and below that is more detailed analysis.

Alamo Bowl 2013
	Ducks	Longhorns
Wins	10	8
Losses	2	4
Total	5	57
Offense	4	67
Defense	22	48
SOS	74.08	65.17
Best	12	30
Worst	56	66

Oregon finished the regular season at10-2 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS).  The Ducks best game was a win against currently ranked #12 Washington and their worst performance was a loss against currently ranked #56 Arizona.  The Ducks currently have the #5 ranked team in total production with the #4 most productive offense and the #22 ranked defense.

Texas finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Longhorns best game was a win in the Red River Rivalry over currently ranked #30 Oklahoma and their worst performance was a loss to currently ranked #66 BYU.  The Longhorn currently have the #57 ranked in total production with the #67 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense.

Look for Oregon to be the victor in the Alamo Bowl today.

Music City Bowl 2013

The Music City Bowl pits the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets of the Atlantic Coast Conference against the Mississippi Rebels of the South Eastern Conference.  So let's take a look at each team during this season to see how each compares for this game using the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.  Below is a quick "tale of the tape" between the two schools, with the details after the table.

Music City Bowl 2013
	Jackets	Rebels
Wins	7	7
Losses	5	5
Total	37	44
Offense	36	48
Defense	46	52
SOS	66.42	55.42
Best	49	9
Worst	66	47

Georgia Tech finished the regular season at 7-5. playing against an "average" strength of schedule.  The Yellow Jackets best game was a victory over currently ranked #49 North Carolina and their worst performance was against currently ranked #66 BYU.  The Yellow Jackets are currently ranked at #37 in total production and their offense is currently ranked #36 and their defense is currently ranked #46.

The Mississippi Rebels also finished the regular season at 7-5, playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule. The Rebels best game was against currently ranked #9 LSU and their worst game was against in-state rival currently ranked #47 Mississippi State.  Mississippi is currently ranked as the #44 team in total production with the #48 ranked offense and #52 ranked defense.

Given the regular season production between the two teams, Georgia Tech is "predicted" to be the winner of the Music City Bowl.