Team Sports Analysis

Arkansas State & Blake Anderson

Arizona & Kevin Sumlin

Illinois & Lovie Smith

Sunday, December 20, 2020

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is for the second straight week: the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	BYU
3	Clemson
4	Coastal Carolina
5	Cincinnati
6	North Carolina
7	Oklahoma
8	Liberty
9	Notre Dame
10	Florida
11	Iowa State
12	Marshall
13	Appalachian State
14	UCF
15	Louisiana-Lafayette
16	Texas A&M
17	Texas
18	Buffalo
19	Ohio State
20	SMU
21	Tulane
22	UAB
23	San Jose State
24	Miami (Florida)
25	Army

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Illinois Fires Head Football Coach Lovie Smith

Illinois fired head football coach Lovie Smith at the beginning of this week. Head football coach Smith was at the helm of the Illini football program since 2016. So here is a look at the University of Illinois football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model). This time period spans head coach Ron Zook last four seasons with the Illini (2008-2011), Tim Beckman (2012 - 2014), Bill Cubit (2015), and the five seasons under Lovie Smith (2016-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Illinois Illini football program during head coach Smith's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com. (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Lovie Smith [2016-2020]

2016
Illinois finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible. The Illini played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS. Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #72 ranked Michigan State by a score of (31-27) and their worst loss was to #122 ranked Purdue by a score of (31-34). Illinois was the #99 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017

Illinois finished the regular season at 2-10, and were again bowl ineligible. The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS. Illinois' best regular season victory was against #80 ranked Western Kentucky (20-7) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Nebraska (6-28). Illinois was the #125 ranked team overall, with the #129 ranked offense (i.e. 2nd to last) and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Illinois finished the regular season at 4-8, and were again bowl ineligible. The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #81 ranked Minnesota by a score of (55-31) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Purdue by a score of (7-46). Illinois was the #121 ranked team overall, with the #87 ranked offense and the #127 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

Illinois finished the regular season at 6-6, and were now bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #68 California by a score of (20-35) to finish 6-7 overall. The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Illinois' best regular season victory was against #12 ranked Wisconsin (24-23) and their worst loss was to in state rival #99 ranked Northwestern (10-29). Illinois was the #74 ranked team overall, with the #91 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Illinois is currently 2-4 with their best win was over currently #94 ranked Rutgers and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #80 Minnesota. The Illini are currently the #92 ranked offense, the #69 ranked defense and the #98 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

Arkansas State & Blake Anderson

Arizona & Kevin Sumlin

Monday, December 14, 2020

Arizona Fires Head Football Coach Kevin Sumlin

Late last week Arizona fired head football coach Kevin Sumlin. The Arizona Wildcats have lost twelve games in a row (going back to the 2019 season). Here is a look at the University of Arizona football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model). This time period spans head coach Mike Stoops last four seasons with the Wildcats (2008-2011), Rich Rodriguez (2012 - 2017), and the three seasons under Kevin Sumlin (2018-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Arizona Wildcats football program during head coach Sumlin's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com. (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Kevin Sumlin [2018-2020*]

2018
Arizona finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible. The Wildcats' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Arizona's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS. Arizona's best regular season victory was again against #35 ranked Oregon by a score of (44-15) and their worst loss was to #103 ranked UCLA by a score of (30-31). Arizona was the #80 ranked team overall, with the #73 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

Arizona finished the regular season at 4-8, and were again bowl ineligible. The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Arizona's best regular season victory was against #83 ranked Texas Tech (28-14) and their worst loss was to #112 ranked Stanford (31-41). Arizona was the #90 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Arizona is currently 0-5 with their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #63 Washington by the score of (27-44). The Wildcats' are currently the #121 ranked offense, the #62 ranked defense and the #121 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

Arkansas State & Blake Anderson

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is now the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	BYU
3	Clemson
4	Coastal Carolina
5	Cincinnati
6	Notre Dame
7	Liberty
8	North Carolina
9	Oklahoma
10	Iowa State
11	Marshall
12	Florida
13	Appalachian State
14	Louisiana-Lafayette
15	Buffalo
16	Texas A&M
17	Iowa
18	Army
19	UCF
20	Texas
21	Ohio State
22	Tulane
23	SMU
24	UAB
25	Georgia Southern

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Head Football Coach Blake Anderson Leaves Arkansas State for Utah State

Late last week Blake Anderson resigned as head football coach at Arkansas State to take up the same position at Utah State. Here is a look at the Arkansas State football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model). This time period spans head coach Steve Roberts last three seasons with the Red Wolves (2008-2010), Hugh Freeze (2011), Gus Malzhan (2012), Bryan Harsin (2013) and the seven seasons under Blake Anderson (2014-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Arkansas State Red Wolves football program during head coach Anderson's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com. (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Blake Anderson [2014-2020*]

2014
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 4-8 (and bowl eligible) where they were defeated by #42 ranked Toledo by a score of (44-63) to finish the season at 7-6 overall. The Red Wolves' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves (SOS) was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS. Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #32 ranked Utah State by a score of (21-14) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Tennessee by a score of (19-34). Arkansas State was the #50 ranked team overall, with the #26 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
Arkansas State finished the regular season again at 9-3, and played #19 Louisiana Tech in their bowl game, which they lost by a score of (28-47) resulting in a 9-4 overall record. The Red Wolves played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves' SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS. Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #1 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (40-27) and their worst loss was again to #65 ranked Missouri by a score of (20-27). Arkansas State was the #77 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 7-5 (and bowl eligible). This year the Red Wolves were victorious in the bowl game against #66 ranked UCF by a score of (31-13) giving them an 8-5 overall record. The Red Wolves' again played against an “easier” strength of schedule Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #31 ranked Troy by a score of (35-3) and their worst loss was to FCS Central Arkansas by a score of (23-28). Arkansas State was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #63 ranked offense and the #20 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Arkansas State finished the regular season again at 7-4, and were defeated in their bowl game against #69 ranked Middle Tennessee State (30-35) to finish 7-5 overall; while playing against a “much easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves (SOS) was greater than standard deviations of the "leagues" SOS. Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #65 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (37-21) and their worst loss was again to #118 ranked Nebraska by a score of (36-43). Arkansas State was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #52 ranked Nevada by the score (13-16) to finish 8-5 overall. The Red Wolves' played against an “easier” strength of schedule. Arkansas State's best regular season victory was again against #75 ranked Texas State by a score of (33-7) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of (43-47). Arkansas State was the #47 ranked team overall, with the #24 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

Arkansas State finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #87 FIU (34-26) to finish 8-5 overall. The Red Wolves played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS). Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #58 ranked Georgia Southern (38-33) and their worst loss was to #110 ranked Georgia State (38-52). Arkansas State was the #92 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Arkansas State is currently 4-7 with their best win against #68 Georgia State by a score of (59-52) and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #117 Texas State by the score of (45-47). The Red Wolves' are currently the #11 ranked offense, the #126 ranked defense (2nd to last given three teams are currently not playing this Fall) and the #74 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Louisiana Monroe fires head football coach Matt Viator

Louisiana-Monroe fired head football coach Matt Viator after a dismal (0-10) start to the 2020 season. Below is a figure of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks since 2008: under the last two seasons of head football coach Charlie Weatherbie (2008-2009), Todd Berry (2010-2015), and head football coach Matt Viator (2016-2020). As you will notice the Warhawks have been well below average under all five seasons with Viator.

Below is a closer look at the Louisiana-Monroe Warkhawks during head coach Viator's tenure with the program using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Matt Viator [2016-2020]

2016
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 4-8 (and bowl ineligible). The Warhawks' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Warhawks (SOS) was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS. Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #77 ranked South Alabama by a score of (42-35) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (21-23). Louisiana-Monroe was the #127 ranked team overall, with the #121 ranked offense and the #117 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season again at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule. Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #14 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (52-45) and their worst loss was again to #96 ranked South Alabama by a score of (23-33). Louisiana-Monroe was the #109 ranked team overall, with the #37 ranked offense and the #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, but did not merit a bowl invite. The Warhawks' played against an “average” strength of schedule. Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was again against #31 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (44-25) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Georgia State by a score of (14-46). Louisiana-Monroe was the #91 ranked team overall, with the #82 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #81 ranked Coastal Carolina and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Arkansas State. Louisiana-Monroe was the #101 ranked team overall, with the #55 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Louisiana-Monroe is currently 0-10 with their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #117 Texas State by a score of (17-38). The Warhawks' are currently the #73 ranked offense, the #125 ranked defense and the #126 ranked team (2nd to last given three teams are currently not playing this Fall) in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

Monday, December 7, 2020

South Alabama Jaguars fired head football coach Steve Campbell

Sunday the University of South Alabama announced that they had fired their head football coach Steve Campbell. South Alabama currently has a 4-7 win/loss record at the time of head coach Campbell's firing. Below is a figure of the South Alabama Jaguars since 2012 under both head football coach Joey Jones (2012-2017) and head football coach Steve Campbell (2018-2020). As you will notice the Jaguars have been well below average under all three seasons with Campbell.

Below is a closer look at the South Alabama Jaguars during head coach Campbell's tenure with the program using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Steve Campbell [2018 - 2020]

2018
South Alabama finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible. The Jaguars played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that South Alabama's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS for that season. South Alabama's best regular season victory was again against #75 ranked Texas State by a score of (41-31) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette (Louisiana) by a score of (38-48). South Alabama was the #113 ranked team overall, with the #103 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

South Alabama finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). South Alabama's best regular season victory was against #58 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (20-17) and their worst loss was to #119 ranked Texas State by a score of (28-30). South Alabama was the #97 ranked team overall, with the #113 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
South Alabama is currently 4-7. South Alabama's best regular season victory was against #74 ranked Arkansas State by a score of (38-31) and their their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #68 Georgia State by a score of (14-31). The Jaguars are currently the #48 ranked offense, the #119 ranked defense and the #112 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is still the Brigham Young Cougars.

Rank	Team
1	BYU
2	Alabama
3	Clemson
4	Coastal Carolina
5	Cincinnati
6	Notre Dame
7	Liberty
8	Oklahoma
9	Iowa State
10	Marshall
11	Florida
12	North Carolina
13	Appalachian State
14	Louisiana-Lafayette
15	Texas A&M
16	Miami (Florida)
17	Ohio State
18	UCF
19	Army
20	Texas
21	Buffalo
22	Tulane
23	SMU
24	Georgia Southern
25	Iowa

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Vanderbilt Fires Head Football Coach Derek Mason

Earlier today Vanderbilt fired head football coach Derek Mason. The Commodores are currently 0-8 on the 2020 season. Head coach Mason has been at Vanderbilt since the 2014 season. Here is a look at the Vanderbilt Commodores football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts). The figure covers the last two seasons under Bobby Johnson, one season under Robbie Caldwell, the three season with James Franklin and the nearly seven seasons under Derek Mason. As you will notice, Vanderbilt's football program has been below average in terms of relative production during Mason's tenure.

Derek Mason [2014 - 2020*]

2014
Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 3-9 (and bowl ineligible). The Commodores played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning the Commodores' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS. Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was against #78 ranked Old Dominion by a score of (42-28) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Kentucky by a score of (7-17). Vanderbilt was the #124 ranked team overall, with the #125 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 4-8 (and again bowl ineligible). The Commodores' played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning the Commodores' SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "leagues" SOS. Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was against #56 ranked Middle Tennessee State by a score of (17-13) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked South Carolina by a score of (10-19). Vanderbilt was the #89 ranked team overall, with the #123 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 6-6 (and bowl eligible), and were defeated by #27 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (17-41) to finish at 6-7 overall. The Commodores' played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS). Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was against #10 ranked Western Kentucky by a score of (31-30) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked South Carolina by a score of (10-13). Vanderbilt was the #76 ranked team overall, with the #75 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. Mason received a contract extension in the off-season.

2017
Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 5-7, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule. Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was against #59 ranked Kansas State by a score of (14-7) and their worst loss was again to #99 ranked Kentucky by a score of (21-44). Vanderbilt was the #91 ranked team overall, with the #81 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #95 ranked Baylor (38-45). The Commodores' played against an “average” strength of schedule. Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was again against #52 ranked Nevada by a score of (41-10) and their worst loss was to #79 ranked South Carolina by a score of (14-37). Vanderbilt was the #71 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. Mason received a contract extension in the off-season.

2019

Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS). Vanderbilt's best regular season victory was against #30 ranked Missouri by a score of (21-14) and their worst loss was to #107 ranked UNLV by a score of (10-34). Vanderbilt was the #123 ranked team overall, with the #121 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Vanderbilt is currently 0-8 with their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #117 South Carolina by a score of (7-41). The Commodores' are currently the #125 ranked offense, the #80 ranked defense and the #117 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is still the Brigham Young Cougars.

Rank	Team
1	BYU
2	Clemson
3	Alabama
4	Coastal Carolina
5	Cincinnati
6	Liberty
7	Notre Dame
8	Marshall
9	Oklahoma
10	Florida
11	Appalachian State
12	Iowa State
13	Louisiana-Lafayette
14	West Virginia
15	Texas A&M
16	UCF
17	Buffalo
18	North Carolina
19	Army
20	SMU
21	UTSA
22	Nevada
23	Kent State
24	Iowa
25	Florida Atlantic

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, November 22, 2020

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Brigham Young Cougars.

Rank	Team
1	BYU
2	Cincinnati
3	Alabama
4	Clemson
5	Coastal Carolina
6	Marshall
7	Notre Dame
8	Oklahoma
9	Liberty
10	North Carolina
11	Florida
12	West Virginia
13	Iowa State
14	SMU
15	Appalachian State
16	Army
17	Kent State
18	UCF
19	Texas A&M
20	Pittsburgh
21	Buffalo
22	Tulane
23	Florida Atlantic
24	Nevada
25	Miami (Florida)

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Will Muschamp Fired as Head Football Coach at South Carolina

South Carolina announced today that head football coach Will Muschamp has been fired. For his tenure at South Carolina, Muschamp was 28-30 overall. Below is the South Carolina production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. This time period covers the last part of Steve Spurrier's tenure (2008-2015) and Will Muschamp (2016-2020*). Here are more details about the program under former head coach Steve Spurrier.

Here is a look at the South Carolina Gamecocks football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts). As you will notice, South Carolina has been below average (except for 2017 (barely)) during Muschamp's tenure.

Will Muschamp (2016-2020*) [original contract]

2016
South Carolina finished the regular season at 6-6 (and bowl eligible), and were defeated by #21 ranked South Florida by a score of (39-46) to finish at 6-7 overall. The Gamecocks played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning the Gamecocks' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS. South Carolina's best regular season victory was against #65 ranked Tennessee by a score of (24-21) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Kentucky by a score of (10-17). South Carolina was the #91 ranked team overall, with the #93 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
South Carolina finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule, The Gamecocks' and were bowl eligible where they defeated by #48 ranked Michigan by a score of (26-19). South Carolina's best regular season victory was against #33 ranked Missouri by a score of (31-13) and their worst loss was again to #99 ranked Kentucky by a score of (13-23). South Carolina was the #61 ranked team overall, with the #94 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
South Carolina finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #25 ranked Virginia (0-28). The Gamecocks' played against a “tougher” strength of schedule meaning the Gamecocks' SOS was between one and two standard deviation's less than the "league" SOS. South Carolina's best regular season victory was again against #34 ranked Missouri by a score of (37-35) and their worst loss was to #44 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (23-26). South Carolina was the #79 ranked team overall, with the #71 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019

South Carolina finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Gamecocks' SOS was lower than two standard deviations of the "leagues" SOS. South Carolina's best regular season victory was against #7 ranked Georgia by a score of (20-17) and their worst loss was to #53 ranked Tennessee by a score of (21-41). South Carolina was the #77 ranked team overall, with the #108 ranked offense and the #35 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
South Carolina is currently 2-5 with their best win of the season was against currently ranked #46 Auburn and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #106 Tennessee. The Gamecocks are currently the #111 ranked offense, the #51 ranked defense and the #107 ranked team in the FBS.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11

Since not all the teams in the FBS are playing, I have also had to make some changes with the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model in terms of the use of conference fixed effects - specifically deleting all of them. As such, the comparability of this week's models numbers with past years is no longer as accurate. But I have chosen to keep the model going, and with more teams entering, more of the estimated coefficients will become statistically significant.

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Brigham Young Cougars.

Rank	Team
1	BYU
2	Cincinnati
3	Clemson
4	Marshall
5	Alabama
6	Notre Dame
7	Coastal Carolina
8	Liberty
9	Appalachian State
10	Oklahoma
11	North Carolina
12	UCF
13	Florida
14	West Virginia
15	SMU
16	Wisconsin
17	Nevada
18	Kent State
19	Army
20	San Jose State
21	Buffalo
22	Texas A&M
23	San Diego State
24	Western Michigan
25	Indiana

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Monday, November 9, 2020

Gary Andersen Fired as Utah State's Head Football Coach

On Saturday, Gary Andersen was fired as the head football coach at Utah State. Currently Utah State is 0-3 for the 2020 NCAA FBS season. This was Andersen's second stint as head football coach with the Aggies, and he finished 7-9 in the one plus partial season at the helm of the program for 2019-2020. Andersen was 26-24 in his first stint as the Aggies head football coach.

Here is a look at the Utah State Aggies football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts). As you will notice, Utah State had some great seasons, but the teams productivity has been consistently inconsistent.

Below is the Utah State Aggies production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. This time period covers Brent Guys last season only (2008), Gary Andersen (2009-2012), Matt Wells (2013-2018) and Gary Andersen (2019-2020*). More details about the program under each head coach is provided below.

Brent Guy [2005-2008]

2008
Utah State finished the regular season at 3-9, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning the Aggies' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #95 ranked Hawai'i by a score of (30-14) and their worst loss was to #94 ranked UNLV by a score of (17-27). Utah State was the #103 ranked team overall, with the #83 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. Given the poor performance of the program, head coach Guy was fired and Gary Andersen was hired to replace him.

Gary Andersen [2009-2012]

2009
Utah State finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah State's best regular season victory was against #59 ranked Louisiana Tech by a score of (23-21) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (17-20). Utah State was the #78 ranked team overall, with the #39 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2010
Utah State finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #67 ranked BYU by a score of (31-16) and their worst loss was to #97 ranked Louisiana Tech by a score of (6-24). Utah State was the #107 ranked team overall, with the #97 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2011
Utah State finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule, meaning the Aggie's SOS was between one and two standard deviation's greater than the "league" SOS. The Aggie's were bowl eligible and played #32 ranked Ohio where they were defeated by a score of (23-24) to finish the season 7-6 overall. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #34 ranked Nevada by a score of (21-17) and their worst loss was to #106 ranked Colorado State by a score of (34-35). Utah State was the #45 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2012
Utah State finished the regular season at 10-2, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule. The Aggie's were bowl eligible and played #71 ranked Toledo where they were victorious by a score of (41-15) to finish the season 11-2 overall. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #12 ranked San Jose State by a score of (49-27) and their worst loss was to #33 ranked Wisconsin by a score of (14-16). Utah State was the #5 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Matt Wells [2013-2018] [Original Contract] [contract extension]
2013 [Mountain West Runners-Up]
Utah State finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule. Utah State played in the Mountain West Conference Championship game losing to #19 ranked Fresno State by a score of (17-24). The Aggies played #16 ranked Northern Illinois in their bowl game and were victorious by a score of (21-14) to finish off the season at 9-5. The Aggies best regular season victory was against #37 ranked Colorado State by a score of (13-0) and their worst loss was to #78 ranked Utah by a score of (26-30). Utah State was the #23 ranked team overall, with the #50 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014 [Mountain West Runners-Up]
Utah State finished the regular season at 9-3, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule. Again the Aggies played in the Mountain West Conference Championship game (and again lost), but this time to #13 ranked Boise State. The Aggies went on to play #69 ranked UTEP in their bowl games where they defeated the Miner by a score of (21-6). Utah State's best regular season victory was against #21 ranked BYU by a score of (35-20) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Tennessee by a score of (7-38). Utah State was the #32 ranked team overall, with the #52 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
Utah State finished the regular season at 6-6 and bowl eligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule. The Aggies were defeated by #68 ranked Akron by a score of (21-23) to finish 6-7 overall. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #8 ranked Boise State by a score of (52-26) and their worst loss was to #78 ranked New Mexico by a score of (13-14). Utah State was the #62 ranked team overall, with the #79 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Utah State finished the regular season at 3-9 (and bowl ineligible), while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule, meaning the Aggie's SOS was between one and two standard deviation's less than the "league" SOS. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #29 ranked Arkansas State by a score of (34-20) and their worst loss was to #103 ranked Nevada by a score of (21-24). Utah State was the #73 ranked team overall, with the #88 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Utah State finished the regular season at 6-6, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule, The Aggies and were bowl eligible where they were defeated by #65 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (20-26). Utah State's best regular season victory was against #84 ranked UNLV by a score of (52-28) and their worst loss was to #87 ranked Air Force by a score of (35-38). Utah State was the #62 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Utah State finished the regular season at 10-2, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #38 ranked North Texas (52-13). Utah State's best regular season victory was against #40 ranked BYU by a score of (45-20) and their worst loss was to #60 ranked Michigan State by a score of (31-38). Utah State was the #3 ranked team overall, with the #6 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Gary Andersen (2019-2020*) [contract]
2019
Utah State finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule and were bowl eligible where they were defeated by #88 ranked Kent State by a score of (41-51) to finish the season at 7-6. Utah State's best regular season victory was against #23 ranked San Diego State by a score of (23-17) and their worst loss was to #65 ranked Wake Forest by a score of (35-38). Utah State was the #96 ranked team overall, with the #58 ranked offense and the #119 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Utah State is currently 0-3 with their worst loss of the season under Andersen's was to #49 ranked Boise State by a score of (13-42). The Aggies are currently the #110 ranked offense, the #62 ranked defense and the #110 ranked team in the FBS.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes