Kevin Sumlin Let Go From Texas A&M

Kevin Sumlin was fired as head football coach earlier this week after going 50-27 after six seasons with the Aggies.  Here is my analysis of the Aggies program during Sumlin's tenure.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Texas A&M Aggies football program during Sumlin's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, the first  season saw a program that was a top ten FBS program and the last three of the four seasons were just average.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Sumlin are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.

Kevin Sumlin [2012 - 2017]

2012
The Aggies were 10-2 (bowl eligible) during coach Sumlin's first season at Texas A&M and defeated #23 ranked Oklahoma (41-13) to finish at 11-2 overall.  The Aggies played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best game again was their victory over #1 ranked Alabama (29-24) and their worst loss was to #14 ranked LSU (19-24).  Texas A&M had the #7 ranked team in total production with the #2 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
The Aggies finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible where they defeated #63 ranked Duke (52-48) to finish overall at 9-4.  The Aggies played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best game again was their victory over #45 ranked Mississippi (41-38) and their worst loss was to #30 ranked Auburn (41-45).  Texas A&M had the #32 ranked team in total production with the #5 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
Texas A&M finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible and defeated #67 ranked West Virginia (45-37) in their post-season bowl game to finish 8-5 overall.  Texas A&M played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best game again was their victory over #22 ranked Arkansas (35-28) and their worst loss was to #31 ranked LSU (17-23).  Texas A&M had the #65 ranked team in total production with the #35 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Aggies finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible, where they lost to #39 ranked Louisville (21-27) to finish 8-5 overall.  Texas A&M again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best game was their victory over #17 ranked Arkansas (34-27) and their worst loss was to #57 ranked Auburn (10-26).  Texas A&M had the #69 ranked team in total production with the #78 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
Texas A&M finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible and lost to #54 ranked Kansas State (28-33).  The Aggies played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best game again was their victory over #14 ranked Auburn (29-16) and their worst loss was again to #83 ranked Mississippi (28-29).  Texas A&M had the #47 ranked team in total production with the #26 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Coach Sumlin was fired at the end of the regular season, where the Aggies finished 6-6 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Aggies best win was against #58 currently ranked South Carolina by a score of (24-17) and their worst loss was to #99 currently ranked Arkansas by a score of (43-50).  At the time of Sumlin's firing, Texas A&M had the #63 ranked team in total production, with the #43 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Tennessee and Butch Jones
UCLA and Jim Mora
South Alabama and Joey Jones
Arkansas and Bret Bielema
Nebraska and Mike Riley
Arizona State and Todd Graham
Kent State and Paul Haynes

Paul Haynes is Out as Kent State's Head Football Coach

Paul Haynes is no longer the head football coach at Kent State.  Here is some analysis of the Kent State Golden Flashes during Haynes' tenure as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Kent State University Golden Flashes football program during Haynes' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, the all four seasons saw a program that was below average. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Haynes are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.

Paul Haynes [2013 - 2017]

2013
The Golden Flashes were 4-8 during the regular season under Haynes' first year at the helm of the football program.  The Golden Flashes were bowl ineligible playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Flashes best game again was their victory over #82 ranked Ohio (44-13) and their worst loss was to #98 ranked Akron (7-16).  Kent State had the #94 ranked team in total production with the #99 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
Kent State finished the regular season at 2-9 and again were bowl ineligible.  Kent State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Flashes best game again was their victory over #87 ranked Akron (27-24) and their worst loss was to #105 ranked Miami (OH) (3-10).  Kent State had the #113 ranked team in total production with the #123 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Golden Flashes were 3-9 during the regular season (bowlin eligible).  Kent State again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Flashes best game again was their victory over #98 ranked Massachusetts (15-10) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Buffalo (17-18).  Kent State had the #107 ranked team in total production with the #127 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
Kent State again finished the regular season at 3-9 and again were bowl ineligible.  The Golden Flashes again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Flashes best game again was their victory over #90 ranked Central Michigan (27-24) and their worst loss was to FCS NC A&T (36-39).  Kent State had the #87 ranked team in total production with the #113 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
At the time of Hayne's departure, Kent State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Flashes best win was  against #68 currently ranked Miami (OH) by a score of (17-14) and their worst loss was to #119 currently ranked Bowling Green by a score of (16-44).  Currently Kent State has the #126 ranked team in total production, with the #130 ranked offense [that would be the worst in all of the FBS] and the #111 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Tennessee and Butch Jones
UCLA and Jim Mora
South Alabama and Joey Jones
Arkansas and Bret Bielema
Nebraska and Mike Riley
Arizona State and Todd Graham

Arizona State Fires Head Football Coach Todd Graham

Yesterday, Todd Graham was fired as the Arizona State Sun Devils head football coach after six seasons.  The Sun Devils were 46-31 during Graham's tenure and was 4-2 against in state rival Arizona Wildcats in the Territorial Cup.  Below is a look at the Sun Devils during since 2012.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Arizona State University Sun Devils football program during Graham' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, the first three season saw a program that was in the top third of the FBS and the last three years was a below average program. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Graham are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.

Todd Graham [2012-2017]

2012
The Sun Devils were 7-5 during the regular season under Graham's first year at the helm of the football program and bowl eligible, where they defeated #66 ranked Navy (62-28) to finish 8-5 overall.  Arizona State played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best game again was their victory over #61 ranked in-state rival Arizona (41-34) and their other five victories were over teams that were ranked 100 or higher.  Arizona State's worst loss was to #93 ranked Missouri (20-24).  Arizona State had the #24 ranked team in total production with the #25 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
The Sun Devils were 10-2 during the regular season under Graham's second year at the helm of the football program; playing #27 ranked Stanford in the PAC-12 conference championship game, losing by a score of (14-38).  The Sun Devils were bowl eligible and lost to #61 ranked Texas State (23-37) to finish 10-4 overall.  Arizona State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best game again was their victory over #9 ranked Wisconsin (32-30) and their worst loss was to #60 ranked Notre Dame (34-37).  Arizona State had the #24 ranked team in total production with the #18 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
Arizona State finished the regular season at 9-3 under Graham's third year at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and defeated #41 Duke (36-31) in their post-season bowl game to finish 10-3 overall.  Arizona State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best game again was their victory over #20 ranked Stanford (26-10) and their worst loss was again to #83 ranked Oregon State (27-35).  Arizona State had the #35 ranked team in total production with the #19 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Sun Devils were 6-6 during the regular season (bowl eligible), and were defeated by #33 ranked West Virginia in their post-season bowl game by a score of (42-43) to finish 6-7 overall.  Arizona State again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best game again was their victory over #26 ranked Washington (27-17) and their worst loss was to #55 ranked Washington State (24-38).  Arizona State had the #81 ranked team in total production with the #40 ranked offense and the #106 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
Arizona State again finished the regular season at 5-7 and was bowl ineligible.  The Sun Devils again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best game again was their victory over #70 ranked UCLA (23-20) and their worst loss was to in-state rival #107 ranked Arizona (21-24).  Arizona State had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #79 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
At the time of Grahams departure, the day after the Sun Devils defeated their in-state rival Arizona and finishing the regular season at 7-5 overall and bowl eligible and playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sun Devils best win was  against #2 currently ranked Washington by a score of (13-7) and their worst loss was to #94 currently ranked UCLA by a score of (37-44).  Currently Arizona State has the #85 ranked team in total production, with the #47 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Tennessee and Butch Jones
UCLA and Jim Mora
South Alabama and Joey Jones
Arkansas and Bret Bielema
Nebraska and Mike Riley

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Alabama is still on top as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Washington
3	Ohio State
4	Penn State
5	Wisconsin
6	Oklahoma
7	UCF
8	Georgia
9	Auburn
10	Clemson
11	Louisville
12	Oklahoma State
13	TCU
14	Miami (Florida)
15	Florida Atlantic
16	San Diego State
17	LSU
18	Memphis
19	Troy
20	Fresno State
21	Mississippi State
22	Boise State
23	Notre Dame
24	Virginia Tech
25	South Florida

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Nebraska Fires Mike Riley as Head Football Coach

Earlier this morning, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln fired their head football coach, Mike Riley after three seasons at the helm of the football program.  Under Riley, the Huskers were 19-19, which was not enough to keep him as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of Nebraska football program during Riley's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).  As you can see below, Nebraska has been below average for two of the three seasons at the helm of the program.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Riley are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.

Mike Riley [2015 - 2017]

2015
The Huskers finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible, but were still able to go "bowling" since not enough schools were bowl eligible, even though other programs were but were not chosen. The Huskers defeated #36 ranked UCLA (37-29) to finish 6-7 overall.  Nebraska played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "league" average SOS.  The Huskers best game was their victory over #30 ranked Southern Mississippi (36-28) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Purdue (45-55).  Nebraska had the #79 ranked team in total production with the #59 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
Nebraska finished the regular season at 9-3 and were bowl eligible and lost to #65 ranked Tennessee (24-38).  The Huskers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Huskers best game again was their victory over #38 ranked Minnesota (24-17) and their worst loss was again to #41 ranked Iowa (10-40).  Nebraska had the #58 ranked team in total production with the #83 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017*
At the time of Riley's firing, the Huskers finished 4-8 and bowl ineligible while and playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Nebraska's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" SOS.  The Huskers best win was their opening game against #32 currently ranked Arkansas State by a score of (43-36) and their worst loss was their last game to #84 currently ranked Iowa by a score of (14-56).  Currently, Nebraska has the #109 ranked team in total production, with the #81 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Tennessee and Butch Jones
UCLA and Jim Mora
South Alabama and Joey Jones
Arkansas and Bret Bielema

Arkansas Fires Head Football Coach Bret Bielema

Arkansas has fired head football coach Bret Bielema just after their loss to Missouri this evening.  So, let's take a look at the Razerbacks during Bielema's tenure.  As you will see below, in terms of overall productivity, Arkansas was a top 25 team in two of the five seasons that Bielema was at the helm of the Razorbacks football program, which playing against a "tougher" or harder strength of schedule for each of the five seasons.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of Arkansas football program during Bielema's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).  As you can see below, Arkansas was extremely productive after a difficult start, but the last two seasons have been below average overall.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Bielema are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.

Bret Bielema [2013 - 2017]

2013
The Razorbacks finished the regular season at 3-9 and bowl ineligible.  Arkansas played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Razorbacks SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Razorbacks best game again was their victory over #52 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette (34-14) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Rutgers (24-28).  Arkansas had the #102 ranked team in total production with the #96 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
Arkansas finished the regular season at 6-6 and were bowl eligible, and defeated by #71 ranked Texas (31-7) in their post-season bowl game to finish 7-6 overall.  The Razorbacks played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Razorbacks best game was their victory over #16 ranked Mississippi (30-0) and their worst loss was again to #65 ranked Texas A&M (28-35).  Arkansas had the #22 ranked team in total production with the #37 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Razorbacks finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible, and defeated #113 ranked Kansas State (45-23).  Arkansas again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Razorbacks best game was again their victory over #6 ranked Mississippi (53-52) and their worst loss was to #90 ranked Texas Tech (24-35).  Arkansas had the #17 ranked team in total production with the #12 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. This was again a top 25 team in terms of overall production, even though the wins did not materialize.

2016
Arkansas finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible and lost to #32 ranked Virginia Tech (24-35).  The Razorbacks again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Razorbacks best game again was their victory over #23 ranked Louisiana Tech (21-20) and their worst loss was again to #68 ranked Missouri (24-28).  Arkansas had the #85 ranked team in total production with the #48 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Bielema was fired immediately after their last regular season game with the Razorbacks finishing 5-7 overall and being bowl ineligible.  Arkansas for the fifth season played against a  "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Razorbacks best win was against #42 currently ranked Texas A&M by a score of (50-43) and their worst loss was to #34 currently ranked South Carolina by a score of (22-48).  At the time of Bielema's firing, Arkansas had the #96 ranked team in total production, with the #72 ranked offense and the #103 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Tennessee and Butch Jones
UCLA and Jim Mora
South Alabama and Joey Jones