Ron Turner has been Relieved of Duties at Florida International University

Florida International University announced that head football coach Ron Turner has been relieved of duties last weekend. Ron Turner finished at FIU with a 10-30 mark.  So with the change in the head coach, let's take a look at the productivity of the Florida International University Panthers under head coach Turner's tenure.  I will also briefly look at the program under the last five of the six years under the previous head football coach, Mario Cristobal.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Florida International University football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, FIU has been below average for most of this time period. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.

Ron Turner (2013 - 2016*)

2013
On January 4, Florida International University hired head football coach Ron Turner.   The Panthers  finished their first season under the helm of head coach Turner at 1-11, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Florida International was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the leagues average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #121 ranked Southern Mississippi and their worst loss was to FCS Bethune-Cookman.  Overall, FIU had the #123 ranked team with the #125 ranked offense (the worst in the league) and the #99 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
FIU finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  The Panthers again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Panthers best game was a victory over #73 ranked UAB their worst loss was again to FCS Bethune-Cookman.  Overall, the Panthers had the #82 ranked team with the #111 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Panthers finished overall at 5-7 while playing against a "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS and again were bowl ineligible.  The Panthers best game was a victory was over #93 ranked Old Dominion and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Florida Atlantic.  FIU had the #95 ranked team in total production with the #101 ranked offense and the #74 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Turner's departure, the Panthers were 0-4 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that FIU's current SOS is more than one standard deviation below the mean of the leagues average SOS.  To date, the Panthers worst loss was to #108 ranked Massachusetts.  FIU at the time of Turner's departure had the #123 ranked team in total production with the #121 ranked offense and the #115 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Mario Cristobal
From 2007 to the end of the 2012 season, Mario Cristobal was the head coach of the Panthers.  During his tenure the team went 27-47 overall.  The only season the team finished above average was in 2011, where the team was 8-5 and finished as the #37 most productive team in total production.  Each of the other four seasons since 2008, the team finished below average in total production.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
LSU and Les Miles

Baylor and Art Briles

Les Miles Dismissed as Head Football Coach at LSU

LSU has dismissed head football coach Les Miles after four games into the 2016 NCAA FBS football season.  Coach Miles has served as head football coach at LSU since the 2005 season going 114-34. So let's take a look at the LSU program during Les Miles tenure.  Unfortunately, I only have complete data starting with the 2008 football season (yes, the year after LSU won the national championship).  Miles was originally hired by LSU on January 21, 2005 and paid a base salary of $3,600,000 per year, with additional payments of $600,000 for media appearances and $350,000 from the Tiger Athletic Foundation, plus bonuses detailed in the first contract. So here is a look at the Louisiana State University football program since 2008.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the LSU football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, LSU has been above average in terms of total production and defense for each season except for this partial 2016 season, and for offense except the 2009 season. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.

 

2008
After finishing the 2007 season as national champions, LSU rewarded head football coach Les Miles with a contract amendment with regard to termination.  The following season LSU finished at 8-5.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one  standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #17 ranked Troy and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Arkansas.  Overall, the Tigers had the #38 most productive college football team with the #38 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Tigers finished the regular season at 9-4. LSU now played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that LSU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #24 ranked Arkansas and their worst game was to #29 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, the Tigers had the #43 ranked team in terms of total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
LSU finished with a 11-2 mark for the season.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #5 ranked Alabama and their worst game was to #21 ranked Arkansas.  LSU finished the season with the #34 ranked team in overall productivity and the #54 ranked offense and the #2712 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
At the beginning of the season, head football coach Les Miles contract was amended.  The Tigers finished at 13-1.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a their regular season victory over #1 ranked Alabama and their only loss was to #1 ranked Alabama in the national championship game.  LSU had the #3 ranked team in terms of total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
The Tigers finished the season again at 10-3. LSU played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #7 ranked Texas A&M and their worst loss was in their bowl game to #18 ranked Clemson.  Overall, LSU had the #14 ranked team with the #50 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
On January 1, LSU extended Les Miles contract (as well as adjusting some bonuses).   LSU again finished at 10-3.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #30 ranked Auburn and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, LSU had the #11 ranked team with the #21 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
LSU finished the regular season at 8-4, and lost to #64 Notre Dame in their post season bowl game to end the season at 8-5.  LSU again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Tigers best game was a victory over #10 ranked Wisconsin at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to Notre Dame in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.  Overall, the Tigers had the #31 ranked team with the #62 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
During the 2015 season, rumors about head coach Les Miles being terminated abounded.   Even sill the Tigers finished overall a bowl eligible team at 9-3 while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory was over #14 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was to #17 ranked Arkansas.  LSU had the #10 ranked team in total production with the #27 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Yes, LSU was a top 10 team with a coach on the hot seat for most of the season.  This gives anecdotal evidence for Humphreys, Paul & Weinbach's research that coaches are fired not because of actual performance, but rather not attaining expected performance.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Miles departure, the Tiger were 2-2 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  To date, the Tigers best game was a victory was over #38 ranked Mississippi State (at the end of LSU's fourth game) and their worst loss was to #44 ranked Auburn.  LSU at the time of Miles departure had the #84 ranked team in total production with the #91 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
Baylor and Art Briles

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Louisville has jumped up to the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Louisville
2	Ohio State
3	Washington
4	Miami (Florida)
5	Michigan
6	Memphis
7	Alabama
8	Missouri
9	Toledo
10	Colorado
11	Texas A&M
12	Clemson
13	Florida
14	TCU
15	Nebraska
16	Troy
17	Southern Mississippi
18	Western Michigan
19	South Florida
20	Boise State
21	Maryland
22	Baylor
23	Houston
24	Virginia Tech
25	Central Michigan

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

WNBA Competitive Balance in 2016

The question at hand for today is how competitive is the WNBA?  Since the regular season ended on Sunday night, I thought I would take a look at the leagues level of competitiveness using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.  Specifically, the Noll-Scully measure captures how far a particular sport or league’s distribution of wins deviates from the purely random outcome.  For those interested in doing your own analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate this on your own.  So now that we have a simple measure of competitive balance, let's take a look at the WNBA and then think about some other leagues level of competitiveness using the same measure.

I grabbed the data on end of the regular season standings from the WNBA website.  After calculating the Noll-Scully I found that for the 2016 season, that the league was a 1.935, which is less competitive than over the last three seasons.  For more details here is a link to the analysis for a number of seasons in the WNBA.

For comparison purposes, here is the Noll-Scully for the NBA over a similar time period.  Notice that the men's league is less balanced than the women's league. 

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

With week #3 in the books (if we count the Cal-Hawai'i game as week #0), listed below is the Top 25 teams in terms of their overall production using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Louisville has jumped up to the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Miami (Florida)
3	Louisville
4	Washington
5	Toledo
6	Florida
7	Colorado
8	South Florida
9	Baylor
10	Central Michigan
11	Texas A&M
12	Nebraska
13	Michigan
14	Southern Mississippi
15	Georgia Southern
16	Army
17	Clemson
18	Maryland
19	Middle Tennessee
20	Alabama
21	Western Michigan
22	TCU
23	North Carolina State
24	Oregon
25	Texas Tech

Previous 2016 Top 25 
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

The first NCAA FBS top 25 for the 2016 season using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using the data from www.cfbstats.com is here. While it is very early in the process, below is a list of the most productive teams according to the model.  While there are some teams that we expect to be there (Ohio State and Alabama) there are also a number of teams that we would not expect to be there as well.  As the season progresses, the model will converge to the true estimates for on field activities for the season, and we should expect the most productive teams to be somewhat different than what we have now.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Georgia Southern
3	Ohio State
4	Miami (Florida)
5	Alabama
6	Toledo
7	South Florida
8	Texas A&M
9	Baylor
10	Michigan State
11	Central Michigan
12	Washington
13	Indiana
14	Stanford
15	Nebraska
16	LSU
17	Troy
18	Duke
19	Michigan
20	Kansas
21	Oklahoma
22	Army
23	Navy
24	Missouri
25	Louisville