Friday, October 30, 2015

Maryland Changes Head Football Coach

On Sunday October 11 the University of Maryland relieved head football coach Randy Edsall of his coaching duties.   So let's take a look at the Maryland Terrapins using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model before (2008-2010 under Ralph Friedgen) and during Edsall's tenure (2011-2015).  I will be starting with the 2008 season and move forward through 2015 up to the point where Edsall's duties were relieved.

Below is a chart of the University of Maryland's offense, defense and total production rankings since 2008 along with the rank of the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during the time period.  As you can see the Maryland Terrapins have not been above average except for the last season with Ralph Friedgen as head football coach since 2008.    More information from the model is presented below.


 

2008
Unfortunately, I do not have all the data to run the model before the 2008 season, so I am unable to show how Maryland performed in the previous seasons with head coach Friedgen.  As such, I can only evaluate based on the data that I have and the model that I am using is the same since the 2008 season.  That said, Maryland finished the 2008 season at 8-5 and bowl eligible and played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Maryland's best game was a victory over #14 ranked California and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Virginia.  Overall, the Terrapin's had the #70 most productive college football team with the #77 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense.

2009
Statistically this was Ralph Friedgen's worst team during this time period.  Maryland finished the regular season at 2-10 and played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Terrapins's best game was a victory over #10 ranked Clemson and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Virginia.  Overall, the Terrapin's had the #107 ranked team in terms of total production with the #105 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense.

2010
Maryland significantly improved their production in this season finishing at 9-4 while playing against a "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Terrapins's best game was a victory over #32 ranked North Carolina State and their worst loss was to #56 ranked Clemson.  Maryland finished the season with the #28 ranked team in overall productivity with the #45 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense.  Unfortunately, this was not enough for Ralph Friedgen to keep his job as head football coach at Maryland.

Randy Edsall as head football coach

2011 

Maryland hired Randy Edsall away from the University of Connecticut during the Summer of 2011.  In Edsall's first season as head football coach the Terrapins finished at 2-10.   Maryland played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  The Terrapin's best game was a victory over #49 ranked Miami (FL) and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Boston College.  The Terrapin's had the #96 ranked team in terms of total production with the #84 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense.

2012
In Edsall's second season as head football coach the Terrapins finished at 4-8 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Terrapin's best game was a victory over #86 ranked Virginia and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Boston College.  Overall, the Terrapin's had the #94 ranked team with the #114 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense.

2013
Maryland finished the season at 7-6 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Terrapins's best game was a victory over #54 ranked Virginia Tech and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Terrapins had the #65 ranked team with the #70 ranked offense and the #42 ranked defense.

2014
Maryland finished the season at 7-6 .  Maryland again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  This season the Terrapins's best game was a victory over #47 ranked Iowa and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Terrapins had the #77 ranked team with the #78 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense.

2015
Maryland extended Edsall's contract during the Summer of 2015, yet only made it through half of the regular season with a 2-4 record.  At the time of Edsall's departure Maryland played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  As of Edsall's departure the Terrapin's best game was a victory over (at the time) #24 ranked South Florida and their worst loss was to (at the time) #84 ranked Bowling Green.  At the time of Edsall's departure Maryland had the #100 ranked team in total production with the #87 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense.

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman

Monday, October 26, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  The Baylor Bears remain as the #1 team according to the Complex Invasion College Football production model.  There has been some movement again this week due to relative changes in offense and defense production.  The top 25 is listed below, with links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.


Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Mississippi
3 Houston
4 TCU
5 Bowling Green
6 Boise State
7 Clemson
8 Oklahoma State
9 Appalachian State
10 Ohio State
11 Oklahoma
12 Iowa
13 Memphis
14 LSU
15 Wisconsin
16 Alabama
17 North Carolina
18 Mississippi State
19 Western Kentucky
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Northern Illinois
22 Duke
23 USC
24 Stanford
25 Michigan State

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #7
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, October 19, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  The Baylor Bears remain as the #1 team according to the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Appalachian State
3 Iowa
4 Ohio State
5 Houston
6 Oklahoma State
7 Stanford
8 Navy
9 Michigan State
10 California
11 Michigan
12 Temple
13 Oklahoma
14 Florida
15 USC
16 Toledo
17 Memphis
18 North Carolina State
19 Utah State
20 TCU
21 South Florida
22 UCLA
23 Illinois
24 Boise State
25 Duke

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #6
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, October 12, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  The Baylor Bears remain as the #1 team according to the production model.  Appalachian State shoots up the Top 25 with another superior performance this past weekend, but is no where even close to Baylor.

We now have two Big Ten teams in the top 4, with Michigan close behind Iowa and Ohio State.  Here are the rest of the rankings as of last week.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Appalachian State
3 Iowa
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan
6 Houston
7 USC
8 Boise State
9 Memphis
10 Ohio
11 Mississippi
12 Michigan State
13 Boston College
14 UCLA
15 Navy
16 California
17 Penn State
18 TCU
19 Cincinnati
20 Washington
21 Texas A&M
22 Temple
23 Florida
24 South Florida
25 Duke

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #5
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2

Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015 MLB Pay and Performance

Yesterday I posted on competitive balance in the MLB and showed that competitive balance in the MLB is getting slightly better in the 2015 season.  So the next step is to look at payroll and performance in MLB during the 2015 season.  I have looked at payroll and performance previously and here is a blog from the end of last season in MLB.  As you can see from that blog that the payroll and performance relationship has been declining since the mid-1990's.  In fact, just taking a look at last season, there is no statistically significant relationship between team payroll and team regular season performance in MLB for the 2014 season.  So, was 2014 a fluke or a trend.  Let's find out by looking at the 2015 MLB regular season.

To do so, first i need the two variables: MLB regular season winning percent, which I grabbed from ESPN and MLB team payrolls which I got from USA Today's MLB team payroll page and second, I need to run the payroll and performance statistical analysis.  (If you are interested in performing your own payroll and performance analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to analyzing payroll and performance.)

What I find is that team payroll for the 2015 MLB season is statistically insignificant, meaning that MLB team payroll has zero effect on MLB team regular season performance during this last season, just like in the 2014 season.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2015 MLB Competitive Balance

With the end of the Major League Baseball season, I have calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance and find that MLB was 1.612 for the 2015 season.  Below is a chart of the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance since 1982.  For the entire time period the average Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance is 1.697, slightly more competitive than the average of 1.700 from 1982 to 2014.   So for this time period, the 2015 MLB season was more competitive than the average since 1982.



If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel.

Monday, October 5, 2015

2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

The latest NCAA FBS top 25 has been updated using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for this season using the data from www.cfbstats.com.  We now have a new #1 team in terms of production and that is the Baylor Bears.  Ole Miss (University of Mississippi) Rebels falls from the #1 team to #13 and Georgia fall from #2 to #14.  Ohio State and Michigan State both have moved up in the rankings, but are currently not the most productive Big 10 team - that goes to Iowa #4.  Rounding out the top four is Memphis and TCU.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Memphis
3 TCU
4 Iowa
5 Ohio State
6 Michigan State
7 Boise State
8 Cincinnati
9 Houston
10 Northwestern
11 Navy
12 Texas A&M
13 Mississippi
14 Georgia
15 Oklahoma State
16 Ohio
17 Illinois
18 Oklahoma
19 California
20 USC
21 North Carolina
22 Western Kentucky
23 Michigan
24 Boston College
25 Florida

Previous 2015 Top 25 Rankings
2015 Top 25 for Week #4
2015 Top 25 for Week #3
2015 Top 25 for Week #2