Thursday, November 25, 2010

Ohio State - Boise State Debate

Recently the presidents of Ohio State and Boise State have made public comments about the worthiness of their respective football teams to play in the NCAA FBS championship game in January. The main issue seems to revolve around each teams strength of schedule. About as recently, I have been writing about the measurement of NCAA FBS strength of schedule and whether strength of schedule is important in regard to a teams winning percent. I conclude that my measure of strength of schedule is not a statistically significant (and therefore) important factor in determining a teams winning percent when taking into account team productivity.

Now we have this debate come up again, so I thought that I would look into the two conferences and the two teams strength of schedule as of November 20, 2010. Let's take them in order.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) of the Big Ten vs. Western Athletic Conference

Now there is a difference between the two conferences, and the Big Ten has an overall stronger conference schedule than the Western Athletic Conference. Here are the two conference teams winning percent and strength of schedule as I measured them using the methodology I outlined in a previous blog.

Team
SOS
Winpct
Illinois
59.455
0.545
Indiana
58.182
0.364
Iowa
57.727
0.636
Michigan
61.909
0.636
Michigan St.
61.545
0.909
Minnesota
53.636
0.182
Northwestern
77.545
0.636
Ohio St.
63.273
0.909
Penn St.
53.000
0.636
Purdue
54.727
0.400
Wisconsin
71.364
0.909
Big Ten Ave.
61.124






Boise St.
73.700
1.000
Fresno St.
70.000
0.667
Hawaii
72.500
0.800
Idaho
61.500
0.400
La.-Lafayette
66.818
0.182
Nevada
84.400
0.900
New Mexico St.
74.455
0.200
San Jose St.
59.200
0.111
Utah St.
66.727
0.364
WAC Average
69.922


Notice that the difference in strength of schedule is higher (easier) for Big Ten teams on average than for Western Athletic Teams. So Gee's comment that teams that play in the Big Ten play more challenging teams on average than teams in the Western Athletic Conference. But just because the Big Ten's strength of schedule is harder than the Western Athletic Conference does not make Ohio State more worthy than Boise State. So let's turn to the two teams themselves.

Strength of Schedule (SOS): Ohio State vs. Boise State

Listed below are the two teams 2010 schedules and the two teams opponents strength of schedule as of November 20th. Notice that both teams have played very poor teams, such as Boise State playing Wyoming, New Mexico State and San Jose State. Ohio State has played some fairly low productive teams such as Eastern Michigan, Purdue and Indiana. In fairness, Boise State plays their strongest opponent (Nevada - currently ranked #5 in overall productivity) this week and then follows with a very weak Utah State (#99 in overall productivity), while Ohio State plays an above average Michigan (currently ranked #37) in overall productivity.

Team Opponent SOS
Boise St. Virginia Tech 18
Boise St. Wyoming 108
Boise St. Oregon St. 67
Boise St. New Mexico St. 118
Boise St. Toledo 50
Boise St. San Jose St. 116
Boise St. Louisiana Tech 84
Boise St. Hawaii 11
Boise St. Idaho 85
Boise St. Fresno St. 80
Boise St. Nevada DNP
Boise St. Utah St. DNP



Ohio St. Marshall 95
Ohio St. Miami (FL) 17
Ohio St. Ohio 43
Ohio St. Eastern Mich. 114
Ohio St. Illinois 49
Ohio St. Indiana 97
Ohio St. Wisconsin 9
Ohio St. Purdue 100
Ohio St. Minnesota 94
Ohio St. Penn St. 68
Ohio St. Iowa 10
Ohio St. Michigan DNP

Yet all of this does not refute the overall productivity of the two teams. Taking this into account, we see that in terms of team productivity, Boise State is the most productive team in the land (ranked #1 in overall productivity) while Ohio State is ranked #6 in overall productivity. So even though Ohio State has a tougher schedule than Boise State, I have adjusted for conferences in the estimation of team overall productivity and found that Boise State is the more productive team. Additionally, when explaining the factors that drive winning percentage, my measure of strength of schedule is not statistically significant when controlling for points scored and points surrendered; point spread; or total productivity.

Full disclosure: I am an employee of a Big Ten university.