Monday, December 30, 2024

North Carolina Fired Head Football Coach Mack Brown

At the end of last month, Mack Brown was fired as head football coach at North Carolina, but was given the opportunity to coach in their post-season bowl game.  Brown was 45-33 in six season at the helm of the Tar Heels.  Here is a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last three seasons of head football coach Butch Davis (2008-2010), Everette Withers (2011),  Larry Fedora (2012-2018) and Mack Brown (2019-2024).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the North Carolina Tar Heels football program during head coach Brown's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Mack Brown [2019-2024]

2019
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 6-6 and played #71 ranked Temple in their post-season bowl where they won by a score of (55-13) to finish at 7-6 overall. North Carolina played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that North Carolina's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  North Carolina's best win was against #33 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (28-25) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Virginia by a score of (31-38).  North Carolina was the #34 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
The Tar Heels finished the COVID shortened regular season at 8-3, and played their post-season bowl game against #11 ranked Texas A&M where they lost by a score of (27-41) to finish at 8-4 overall.  North Carolina played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). North Carolina's best win was against #23 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (62-26) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Florida State by a score of (28-31).  North Carolina was the #9 ranked team overall, with the #3 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
North Carolina finished the regular season at 6-6,while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  North Carolina was defeated by #92 ranked South Carolina in the post-season by a score of (21-38) to finish the season at 6-7 overall. The Tar Heels' best win was against #27 ranked Wake Forest by a score of (58-55) and their worst loss was to #104 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (22-45).  North Carolina was the #60 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 ACC Runner-Up
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 9-3, and then lost in the ACC Championship game to #40 ranked Clemson by a score of (10-39) and then lost their post-season bowl game to #11 ranked Oregon by a score of (27-28) to finish the season at 9-5 overall. The Tar Heels played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  North Carolina's best win was against #32 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (63-61) and their worst loss was to #98 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (17-21).  North Carolina was the #79 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  They were defeated by #53 ranked West Virginia by a score of (10-30) in their post-season bowl game to finish the season overall at 8-5. North Carolina's best win was against #28 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (41-31) and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Virginia by a score of (27-31).  North Carolina was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
Head coach Brown was fired at the end of the regular season where the Tar Heels were 7-5, but was allowed to coach the team in their post-season bowl game, where they were defeated by currently #40 ranked Connecticut by a score of (14-27) to finish at 7-6 overall.  The Tar Heels played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  At the time of Brown's firing North Carolina's best win was against #23 ranked Minnesota (19-17) and their worst loss was again to #89 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (30-35).  North Carolina currently is the #80 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #87 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

Posted by at 9:34 PM

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Purdue Fired Head Football Coach Ryan Walters

At the beginning of this month, Ryan Walters was fired as head football coach at Purdue.  Walters was 5-19 in two season at the helm of the Purdue Boilermakers.  Here is a look at the Purdue Boilermakers football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last season of head football coach Joe Tiller (19977-2008), Danny Hope (2009-2012), Darrell Hazell (2013-2016), Jeff Brohm (2017-2022) and Ryan Walters (2023-2024).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Purdue Boilermakers football program during head coach Walters' tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Ryan Walters [2023-2024]

2023
The Boilermakers finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Purdue's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  Purdue's best win was against #50 ranked Virginia Tech by a score of (24-17) and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Northwestern by a score of (15-23).  Purdue was the #84 ranked team overall, with the #83 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
Head coach Walters was fired at the end of the regular season where the Boilermakers were 1-11 overall.  The Boilermakers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "leagues" average SOS.  At the time of Walters' firing Purdue's best (only) win was against FCS Indiana State by a score of (49-0) and their worst loss was again to #102 ranked Northwestern by a score of (20-26).  Purdue was the #132 ranked team overall, with the #129 ranked offense and the #127 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

Posted by at 9:38 AM

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

FIU fired head coach Mike MacIntyre

At the beginning of this month, Mike MacIntyre was fired as head football coach at Florida International (FIU).  MacIntyre was 12-24 in three season at the helm of the Florida International Panthers.  Here is a look at the FIU Panthers football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last five seasons of head football coach Mario Cristobal (2007-2012), Ron Turner (2013-2016), Butch Davis (2017-2021) and Mike MacIntyre (2022-2024).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the FIU Panthers football program during head coach MacIntyre's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Mike MacIntyre [2022-2024]

2022
The Panthers finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that the Panthers SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  FIU's best win was against #43 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (21-7) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked UTEP by a score of (6-40).  FIU was the #124 ranked team overall, with the #121 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
The Panthers finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  FIU's best win was against #93 ranked North Texas by a score of (46-39) and their worst loss was to #110 ranked UTEP by a score of (14-27).  FIU was the #128 ranked team overall, with the #119 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
Head coach MacIntyre was fired at the end of the regular season where the Panthers were 4-8 overall.  The Panthers played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" SOS.  At the time of MacIntrye's firing FIU's best win was against #85 ranked Louisiana Tech by a score of (17-10) and their worst loss was again to FCS Monmouth (42-45).  FIU was the #79 ranked team overall, with the #84 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

Posted by at 10:26 AM

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

West Virginia fires head football coach Neal Brown

At the beginning of this month, Neal Brown was fired as head football coach at West Virginia.  Brown was 37-34 in six season at the helm of the Mountaineers.  Here is a look at the West Virginia Mountaineers football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last three seasons of head football coach Bill Stewart (2007-2010), Dana Holgorsen (2011-2018),  and Neal Brown (2019-2024).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the West Virginia Mountaineers football program during head coach Brown's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Neal Brown [2019-2024]

2019
The Mountaineers finished the regular season at 5-7, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that West Virginia's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  West Virginia's best win was against #42 ranked Kansas State by a score of (24-20) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (17-38).  West Virginia was the #113 ranked team overall, with the #120 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
The Mountaineers finished the COVID shortened regular season at 5-4, and played their post-season bowl game against #26 Army where they won by a score of (24-21).  West Virginia played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). West Virginia's best win was against #36 ranked TCU by a score of (24-6) and their worst loss was to #82 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (27-34).  West Virginia was the #33 ranked team overall, with the #47 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
West Virginia finished the regular season at 6-6,while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  West Virginia was defeated by #40 ranked Minnesota in the post-season by a score of (6-18) to finish the season at 6-7 overall. The Mountaineers' best win was against #14 ranked Iowa State by a score of (38-31) and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (20-23).  West Virginia was the #67 ranked team overall, with the #85 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022
The Mountaineers finished the regular season at 5-7, while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that the Chippewas SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "leagues" average SOS.  West Virginia's best win was against #46 ranked Baylor by a score of (43-40) and their worst loss (for the fourth year in a row) was to #72 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (10-48).  West Virginia was the #104 ranked team overall, with the #80 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
The Mountaineers finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  They defeated #29 ranked North Carolina by a score of (30-10) in their post-season bowl game to finish the season overall at 9-4. West Virginia's best win was against #40 ranked UCF by a score of (41-28) and their worst loss was to #116 ranked Houston by a score of (39-41).  West Virginia was the #53 ranked team overall, with the #47 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
Head coach Brown was fired at the end of the regular season where the Mountaineers were 6-6 overall.  The Mountaineers played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  At the time of Brown's firing West Virginia's best win was against #55 ranked UCF and their worst loss was again to #80 ranked Texas Tech.  West Virginia was the #104 ranked team overall, with the #79 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
Posted by at 10:45 AM

Monday, December 16, 2024

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Mississippi
3 Notre Dame
4 Ohio State
5 Texas
6 Tennessee
7 Miami (Florida)
8 Penn State
9 Oregon
10 Boise State
11 Alabama
12 SMU
13 Clemson
14 Tulane
15 Army
16 Georgia
17 Ohio
18 Arizona State
19 UNLV
20 BYU
21 Colorado
22 Minnesota
23 Memphis
24 Jacksonville State
25 Texas State

2024 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Posted by at 9:11 AM

Sunday, December 8, 2024

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Mississippi
3 Notre Dame
4 Tennessee
5 Texas
6 Ohio State
7 Miami (Florida)
8 Penn State
9 Oregon
10 Boise State
11 SMU
12 Alabama
13 Army
14 Clemson
15 Tulane
16 Georgia
17 UNLV
18 Ohio
19 Arizona State
20 Colorado
21 BYU
22 Jacksonville State
23 Minnesota
24 Memphis
25 Texas State

2024 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Posted by at 8:52 AM

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Jim McElwain Retires at Central Michigan

Last month Jim McElwain announced that this would be retiring from head coaching.  McElwain was 33-36 in six season at the helm of the Chippewas.  Here is a look at the Central Michigan Chippewas football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last two seasons of head football coach Butch Jones (2007-2009), Dan Enos (2010-2014), John Bonamego (2015-2018) and Jim McElwain (2019-2024).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Central Michigan Chippewas football program during head coach McElwain's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Jim McElwain [2019-2024]

2019 Mid-American Conference Runner-Up
The Chippewas finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Central Michigan's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  Central Michigan's played in their conference championship game where they were defeated by #108 ranked Miami (OH) by a score of (21-26).  The Chippewas played their post-season bowl game against #23 ranked San Diego State and were defeated by a score of (11-48) to finish the season at 8-6 overall.  Central Michigan's best win was against #51 ranked Ball State by a score of (45-44) and their worst loss was to #46 ranked Western Michigan by a score of (15-31).  Central Michigan was the #66 ranked team overall, with the #46 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
The Chippewas finished the COVID shortened regular season at 3-3, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Central Michigan's best win was against #67 ranked Ohio by a score of (30-27) and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Western Michigan by a score of (44-52).  Central Michigan was the #69 ranked team overall, with the #90 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
Central Michigan finished the regular season at 8-4,while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that the Chippewas SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  Central Michigan defeated #61 ranked Washington State by a score of (24-21) to finish the season at 9-4 overall. The Chippewas' best win was against #15 ranked Toledo by a score of (26-23) and their worst loss was to #90 ranked LSU by a score of (21-49).  Central Michigan was the #34 ranked team overall, with the #26 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022
The Chippewas finished the regular season at 4-8, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  Central Michigan's best win was against #99 ranked Northern Illinois by a score of (35-22) and their worst loss was to #114 ranked Bowling Green by a score of (18-34).  Central Michigan was the #101 ranked team overall, with the #107 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
The Chippewas finished the regular season at 5-7, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Central Michigan's best win was against #20 ranked South Alabama by a score of (34-30) and their worst loss was to #129 ranked Michigan State by a score of (7-31).  Central Michigan was the #102 ranked team overall, with the #101 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
Head coach McElwain retired at the end of season where the Chippewas were 4-8 overall.  The Chippewas played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Central Michigan's best win was against #76 ranked Western Michigan and their worst loss was to #115 ranked Eastern Michigan (34-38).  Central Michigan is currently the #103 ranked team overall, with the #115 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 

Posted by at 5:07 PM

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Gus Malzahn Resigns from UCF

Yesterday it was announced that Gus Malzahn resigned as head football coach at UCF.  Malzahn was 27-24 in four season at the helm of the Knights.  Here is a look at the UCF Knights football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last nine seasons of head football coach George O'Leary (2004-2015), Scott Frost (2016-2017), Josh Heupel (2018-2020) and Gus Malzahn (2021-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the UCF Knights football program during head coach Malzahn's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Gus Malzahn [2021-2024]

2021
UCF finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated the #42 ranked Florida Gators by a score of (29-17).  The Knights played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #52 ranked Boise State by a score of (36-31) and their worst  regular season loss was to #102 ranked Navy (30-34).  UCF was the #39 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 AAC Conference Runner-Up
UCF finished the regular season at 9-3, and were played in the AAC Championship game where they lost to #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (28-45).  Then the Knights played #36 ranked Duke in their post-season bowl game and lost by a score (13-30) to finish 9-5 overall. The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (38-31) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Navy (14-17).  UCF was the #38 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
Tulsa finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #63 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (17-30) to finish the regular season at 6-7.  The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #33 ranked Boise State by a score of (18-16) and their worst regular season loss was to #121 ranked Baylor (35-36).  UCF was the #40 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
UCF finished the 2024 season at 4-8. UCF has played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  UCF's best victory was against currently #38 ranked Sam Houston State by a score of (45-14) and their current worst loss was to #104 ranked West Virginia by a score of (21-31).  UCF is currently the #55 ranked team overall, with the #48 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes

Posted by at 4:51 PM

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Mississippi
3 Penn State
4 Texas
5 Ohio State
6 Notre Dame
7 Tennessee
8 Miami (Florida)
9 Oregon
10 Boise State
11 Tulane
12 Alabama
13 SMU
14 Clemson
15 Army
16 UNLV
17 Georgia
18 Louisiana-Lafayette
19 Iowa State
20 BYU
21 Minnesota
22 Colorado
23 Memphis
24 Texas State
25 Iowa

2024 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

 

Posted by at 8:12 AM
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