Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Wisconsin Fired Head Football Coach Paul Chryst

Earlier this week, head football coach Paul Chryst was fired from Wisconsin.  Chryst was 67-26 in about eight and a half seasons at the helm of the Badgers.  Here is a look at the Wisconsin football program since 2008 (the first year that of complete data I have).  This time period only covers the last five seasons of head football coach Bret Bielema (2008-2012), Gary Anderson (2013-2014), and Paul  Chryst (2015-2022*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Wisconsin Badgers football program during head coach Chryst's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Paul Chryst (2015-2022*) [contract]

2015
Wisconsin finished the regular season at 9-3, and defeated by #51 ranked Southern California in their post-season bowl game by a score of (23-21).  The Badgers played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  An average SOS means that the Badgers' SOS was within plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" SOS.  Wisconsin's best regular season victory was against #58 ranked Illinois (24-13) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Northwestern (7-13).  Wisconsin was the #20 ranked team overall, with the #70 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016 BIG 10 Runner-up
Wisconsin finished the regular season at 10-2, and were defeated by #12 ranked Penn State in their conference title game by a score of (31-38).  Wisconsin was victorious in their post-season bowl game against #8 ranked Western Michigan by a score of (24-16) to finish at 11-3 overall.  The Badgers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  A "tougher" SOS means that the Badgers' SOS was between one and two standard deviations below of the "league" SOS.  Wisconsin's best regular season victory was against #7 ranked LSU (16-14) and their worst loss was to #4 ranked Michigan by a score of  (7-14).  Wisconsin was the #18 ranked team overall, with the #59 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2017 BIG 10 Runner-up
The Badgers finished the regular season 12-0!  They played #2 ranked Ohio State in the Big 10 conference championship game were they were defeated by a score (21-27).  The Badgers played #19 ranked Miami (FL) in their post-season bowl game and were victorious by a score of (34-24) to finish the season at 13-1.  Wisconsin played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Wisconsin's best win was against #9 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (31-14) and they were not defeated during the regular season.  Wisconsin was the #7 ranked team overall, with the #20 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2018
Wisconsin finished the regular season at 7-5, and again defeated by #19 ranked Miami (FL) in their post-season bowl game, this time by a score of (35-3).  The Badgers played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Wisconsin's best regular season victory was against #15 ranked Iowa (28-17) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Northwestern (17-31).  Wisconsin was the #26 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2019 BIG 10 Runner-up
The Badgers finished the regular season at 10-2, where they played #1 ranked Ohio State and were defeated by a score of 921-34).  In their post-season bowl game the Badgers were defeated by #5 ranked Oregon (27-28) .  Wisconsin played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Wisconsin's best win was against #20 ranked Minnesota by a score of (38-17) and their worst loss was to #74 ranked Illinois by a score of (23-24).  Wisconsin was the #12 ranked team overall, with the #15 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Wisconsin finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 3-3, playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  They defeated #48 ranked Wake Forest (42-28) in their post-season bowl game.  Wisconsin's best regular season victory was against #77 ranked Minnesota by a score of (20-17) and their worst loss was to #39 ranked Indiana by a score of (6-14).  Wisconsin was the #61 ranked team overall, with the #92 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
The Badgers finished the regular season at 8-4, and defeated  #47 ranked Arizona State in their post-season bowl game to finish the season at 9-4.  Wisconsin played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Wisconsin's best win was against #37 ranked Purdue by a score of (30-13) and their worst loss was to #40 ranked Minnesota by a score of (13-23).  Wisconsin was the #17 ranked team overall, with the #58 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022*
After the Badgers started at 2-3, Chryst was fired.  Wisconsin currently has played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Wisconsin's best win was against #123 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (66-7) and their current worst loss was #54 ranked Washington State by a score of (14-17).  Wisconsin is currently the #53 ranked team overall, with the #66 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 

2022 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes

Geoff Collins and Georgia Tech
Karl Dorrell and Colorado