Tuesday, September 9, 2014

June Jones Resigns at SMU

SMU has announced that head football coach June Jones has resigned effective yesterday.  Thus we have the first NCAA FBS head coaching change of the season.  As I did last season, I will write up a statistical summary of the team under the former head coach.  So that I do not get too far behind, here is the analysis of the SMU Mustang's under former head football coach Jones' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

First here is the SMU Mustang's ranking using the model above since 2008, Jones' first season as head coach all the way to the end of his tenure which is the second week in 2014.  In the chart below, we have the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team.  As you can see under Jones, the Mustangs started poorly and then had two seasons of improvement through 2010 and then have been a program on the slide since the 2011 season.  (Using the total ranking line in blue).  Below the chart are more details of the SMU Mustangs under now former head football coach June Jones.

2014* Through the second week of the 2014 season.

2008
In Jones' first season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished the regular season at 1-11.  SMU played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviation lower than the "league" average.  The Mustang's only victory was over FCS (at the time) Texas State, and their worst game was a loss to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #115 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense.  This was by far the worst complete season of the Mustang's under Jones' tenure.

2009
In Jones' second season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished overall at 8-5 and played in the first of four consecutive post-season bowl games.  SMU played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #39 ranked East Carolina and their worst game was a loss to #120 ranked Washington State.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #53 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.

2010
This was Jones' best season as head football coach, as the Mustang's finished overall at 7-7.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS measure was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the league average SOS.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #26 ranked Tulsa and their worst game was a loss to #94 ranked UTEP.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #40 ranked team with the #29 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.

2011
Even though the Mustangs improved their overall wins to finish 8-5, this season was not as productive as the previous one.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #9 ranked TCU and their worst game was a loss to #64 ranked Navy.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #54 ranked team with the #69 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2012
SMU finished at 7-6 including playing in a post-season bowl.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #11 ranked Fresno State and their worst game was a loss to #121 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #57 ranked team with the #61 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.

2013
SMU finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #89 ranked Temple.  Their worst loss was to #95 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #80 ranked team with the #78 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only two games coached by June Jones, the Mustangs lost both of the games played by a margin of 6-88.  One of their losses was to currently ranked #1 Baylor and the other was to currently ranked #86 North Texas.  As of the end of the second week, SMU has the #126 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #127 offense and the #121 defense.

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