Given I have all the data I use in the model starting with the 2008 season, I will examine the Florida Gators under the last three seasons with head football coach Urban Meyer and the first three seasons under head football coach Will Muschamp. Here is a brief analysis of the Florida Gators under Urban Meyer at the time of his stepping down as head coach.
Below is a chart of the Florida Gators offense, defense and total production rankings since 2008 along with the rank of the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during the time period. More information from the model is presented below.
2008
This is Florida's national championship season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and defeating both Alabama in the SEC championship game and Oklahoma in the national championship game. Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS. Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#3 Oklahoma, #11 Alabama and #22 Georgia - all wins and a loss to #18 Mississippi).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #18 ranked Mississippi. Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.
2009
Statistically Florida was the most productive team again in 2009. Florida finished the regular season at 12-0. Florida lost the SEC championship game to #2 ranked Alabama and finished out the post season with a victory over #11 ranked Cincinnati to end the season at 13-1. Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS. Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#11 Cincinnati, #22 Tennessee and #24 Arkansas - all wins and a loss to #2 Alabama).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #2 ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game. Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.
Yes, Florida actually improved over their previous season on the defensive side of the ball, and finished as the most productive team in the nation, but were not considered national champions.
2010
In what ended up as Urban Meyer's last season as head football coach at Florida, the Gator's were not the same team as the last two seasons, slipping in production on both sides of the ball. Florida finished the regular season at 7-5. Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS. Florida was 0-3 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#5 Alabama, #20 Mississippi State and #23 Florida State - all losses).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #37 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was to #34 ranked LSU. Overall, the Gator's had the #46 ranked team with the #58 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense.
2011
With Muschamp taking over as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 6-6 and finished overall at 7-6 with their bowl victory over #44 ranked Ohio State. Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS. Florida was 0-5 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#1 Alabama, #3 LSU, #11 South Carolina, #14 Florida State and #21 Georgia - all losses).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #35 ranked Vanderbilt and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Auburn. Overall, the Gator's had the #54 ranked team with the #96 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.
2012
Muschamp's second season has been the most productive of the three season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and finished overall at 11-2 with their bowl loss to #27 ranked Louisville. Florida played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was greater than two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS. Florida was 4-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with victories over (#2 Florida State, #7 Texas A&M, #14 LSU, and #20 South Carolina, and a loss to #4 Georgia).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #2 ranked Florida State and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Louisville. Overall, the Gator's had the #13 ranked team with the #72 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.
2013
In Muschamp's third season as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible. Florida played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS. Florida was 0-4 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with losses to (#1 Florida State, #11 LSU, #13 Missouri, and #14 South Carolina).
The Gator's best game was a victory over #53 ranked Toledo and their worst loss was to FCS Georgia Southern. Overall, the Gator's had the #79 ranked team with the #114 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.
As you can see, Florida has been on a downward trend since the end of the 2009/10 season.