Kansas Jayhawks under Charlie Weis

ESPN reports that the Kansas Jayhawk's have fired head football coach Charlie Weis who was in the third year of a five year contract.  Here is my analysis of the Kansas Jayhawk's under former head football coach Weis' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

In the chart below, I have graphed the Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings since 2008 by the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team in the "league".  The first two seasons (2008 & 2009) were under Mark Mangino, the next two seasons (2010 & 2011) were under Turner Gill, and the last three seasons were under Charlie Weis.  As you can tell from the production rankings, Kansas has been a very poor performing football program for a number of seasons.

 

2014* Through the fifth week of the 2014 season.

I am only going to focus on Kansas under Charlie Weis for this blog.  I hope to come back and go back to the 2008 season at a later time.

2012
In his first season at the helm of the Kansas Jayhawks football program the Jayhawks finished at 1-11 and were bowl ineligible.  This season the Jayhawks again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Jayhawk's only victory was over FCS South Dakota State and their worst game was a loss to #72 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawks had the #117 ranked team with the #106 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense out of 124 FBS teams.

2013
Kansas finished the regular season at 3-9 and were again bowl ineligible.  Kansas again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning they were plus or minus one standard deviation from the league average SOS.  Kansas's best game was their victory over #88 ranked Louisiana Tech and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawk's had the #114 ranked team with the #122 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only four games coached by Charlie Weis, the Jayhawks were 2-2.  As of the end of the fifth week, Kansas has the #112 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #123 offense and the #86 defense.


2014 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes (to date):
June Jones at SMU

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Week number 5 is in the books and we have a new #1 team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com in the Texas A&M Aggies.  The Aggies are followed by Baylor, Michigan State and LSU as the top 4 teams in overall production.  Marshall who was #1 last week has dropped to #6 in terms of overall team production.  Expect teams to move up and down each week.

Rank	Team
1	Texas A&M
2	Baylor
3	Michigan State
4	LSU
5	Nebraska
6	Marshall
7	East Carolina
8	Mississippi
9	Auburn
10	Oklahoma
11	Oregon
12	TCU
13	Alabama
14	Georgia Southern
15	Louisville
16	Wisconsin
17	Houston
18	UCLA
19	Duke
20	Maryland
21	Mississippi State
22	Memphis
23	Georgia
24	Cincinnati
25	UAB

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Competitive Balance in MLB

With the end of the Major League Baseball season, I have calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance and find that MLB was 1.509 for the 2014 season.  Below is a chart of the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance since 1982.  For the entire time period the average Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance is 1.700.   So for this time period, the 2014 MLB season was more competitive than the average since 1982.

If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel.

Ticket Revenue Analysis

Today in my Sports Economics course I am presenting our paper "Stars at the Gate" published in the Journal of Sports Economics about the drivers of NBA gate revenues.  Given its timeliness, I noticed the following article on generating data insights in ticket revenues.

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Well a quarter of the regular season is now in the books.  I have again estimated the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com.  This week we have a new #1 team - the Marshall Thundering Herd.  Baylor has dropped to #5 (the bubble team in the new college football playoff format).  Thus the four most productive teams using my model are:  Marshall, Alabama, Duke and Mississippi.

Notice that seven of the top 10 teams are in the SEC!

Will this change?  Yes - probably, as the season progresses and as the teams production relative to the rest of the league changes.   Here is this week's top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Alabama
3	Duke
4	Mississippi
5	Baylor
6	Texas A&M
7	Georgia
8	LSU
9	Mississippi State
10	Auburn
11	Pittsburgh
12	Louisville
13	North Carolina State
14	Stanford
15	Arkansas
16	TCU
17	Michigan State
18	Missouri
19	Cincinnati
20	Nebraska
21	Oklahoma
22	Oregon
23	UAB
24	Wisconsin
25	East Carolina

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

With another week of the season in the books, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking.  Again the data is from cfbstats.com - worthwhile to check out.  As you can see, Baylor remains the most productive team in all of college football based on the model.  Also note that even though Florida State was idle last week, they have now cracked the top 25 in the model's ranking.

Rank	Team
1	Baylor
2	Pittsburgh
3	Duke
4	TCU
5	Marshall
6	Nebraska
7	LSU
8	Mississippi
9	Florida
10	Texas A&M
11	Oregon
12	Cincinnati
13	Mississippi State
14	Alabama
15	Oklahoma
16	UAB
17	Clemson
18	Louisville
19	Miami (Florida)
20	Memphis
21	Notre Dame
22	Georgia Southern
23	Florida State
24	Arizona State
25	Utah

Previous 2014 Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

June Jones Resigns at SMU

SMU has announced that head football coach June Jones has resigned effective yesterday.  Thus we have the first NCAA FBS head coaching change of the season.  As I did last season, I will write up a statistical summary of the team under the former head coach.  So that I do not get too far behind, here is the analysis of the SMU Mustang's under former head football coach Jones' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

First here is the SMU Mustang's ranking using the model above since 2008, Jones' first season as head coach all the way to the end of his tenure which is the second week in 2014.  In the chart below, we have the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team.  As you can see under Jones, the Mustangs started poorly and then had two seasons of improvement through 2010 and then have been a program on the slide since the 2011 season.  (Using the total ranking line in blue).  Below the chart are more details of the SMU Mustangs under now former head football coach June Jones.

2014* Through the second week of the 2014 season.

2008
In Jones' first season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished the regular season at 1-11.  SMU played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviation lower than the "league" average.  The Mustang's only victory was over FCS (at the time) Texas State, and their worst game was a loss to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #115 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #113 ranked defense.  This was by far the worst complete season of the Mustang's under Jones' tenure.

2009
In Jones' second season as head football coach, the Mustangs finished overall at 8-5 and played in the first of four consecutive post-season bowl games.  SMU played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #39 ranked East Carolina and their worst game was a loss to #120 ranked Washington State.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #53 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense.

2010
This was Jones' best season as head football coach, as the Mustang's finished overall at 7-7.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that SMU's SOS measure was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the league average SOS.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #26 ranked Tulsa and their worst game was a loss to #94 ranked UTEP.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #40 ranked team with the #29 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense.

2011
Even though the Mustangs improved their overall wins to finish 8-5, this season was not as productive as the previous one.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Mustang's best game was a victory over #9 ranked TCU and their worst game was a loss to #64 ranked Navy.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #54 ranked team with the #69 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

2012
SMU finished at 7-6 including playing in a post-season bowl.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #11 ranked Fresno State and their worst game was a loss to #121 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Mustangs had the #57 ranked team with the #61 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense.

2013
SMU finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  SMU again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  SMU's best game was their victory over #89 ranked Temple.  Their worst loss was to #95 ranked Rutgers.  Overall, the Mustang's had the #80 ranked team with the #78 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only two games coached by June Jones, the Mustangs lost both of the games played by a margin of 6-88.  One of their losses was to currently ranked #1 Baylor and the other was to currently ranked #86 North Texas.  As of the end of the second week, SMU has the #126 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #127 offense and the #121 defense.

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

I have started my NCAA FBS Top 25 rankings for this season.  As always, I am using data from cfbstats.com, which I highly recommend that you take a look at.  I am continuing to rank teams based on the results from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model that I have been using for the last few years.  Here are the rankings of teams based on their current on-field actions for the past two weeks.
 

Rank	Team
1	Baylor
2	Florida
3	Pittsburgh
4	Georgia Southern
5	Notre Dame
6	Texas State
7	LSU
8	Oregon
9	Oklahoma
10	Texas A&M
11	Arizona State
12	Kentucky
13	Marshall
14	Northern Illinois
15	Utah
16	Arizona
17	Auburn
18	Louisville
19	Tennessee
20	Alabama
21	Nebraska
22	BYU
23	Mississippi State
24	Clemson
25	Missouri

As you can see there are some surprises.  One is that Florida State is not in the Top 25 (currently ranked #53).  I suspect they will rise over the next few weeks as teams at the top now will be falling.

Each week I will be posting the top 25 based on the model.  So check back to see how the model ranks teams soley based on cumulative on-field production.

NFL Fan Geography

Interesting map by Facebook "Likes" for which team has the most fans.  What would be also interesting is not just what team has the most, but where is the competition for fans by geographic region.

Florida Gators Since 2008

Since the Florida Gator's opening game against the Idaho Vandal's was cancelled due to weather last week, I thought that I would take a look at the Gator's using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.   The model looks at how team on field actions affect points scored and also points surrendered.  From that I am able to rank each team using the statistically significant weights of the various on field actions.  All rankings are based on the end of season.

Given I have all the data I use in the model starting with the 2008 season, I will examine the Florida Gators under the last three seasons with head football coach Urban Meyer and the first three seasons under head football coach Will Muschamp.  Here is a brief analysis of the Florida Gators under Urban Meyer at the time of his stepping down as head coach.

Below is a chart of the Florida Gators offense, defense and total production rankings since 2008 along with the rank of the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during the time period.   More information from the model is presented below.

2008
This is Florida's national championship season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and defeating both Alabama in the SEC championship game and Oklahoma in the national championship game.   Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#3 Oklahoma, #11 Alabama and #22 Georgia - all wins and a loss to #18 Mississippi).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #18 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.

2009
Statistically Florida was the most productive team again in 2009.  Florida finished the regular season at 12-0.  Florida lost the SEC championship game to #2 ranked Alabama and finished out the post season with a victory over #11 ranked Cincinnati to end the season at 13-1.  Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 3-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#11 Cincinnati, #22 Tennessee and #24 Arkansas - all wins and a loss to #2 Alabama).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #3 ranked Oklahoma and their only loss was to #2 ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game.  Overall, the Gator's had the #1 ranked team with the #3 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.

Yes, Florida actually improved over their previous season on the defensive side of the ball, and finished as the most productive team in the nation, but were not considered national champions.

2010
In what ended up as Urban Meyer's last season as head football coach at Florida, the Gator's were not the same team as the last two seasons, slipping in production on both sides of the ball. Florida finished the regular season at 7-5.   Florida played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-3 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#5 Alabama, #20 Mississippi State and #23 Florida State - all losses).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #37 ranked Georgia and their worst loss was to #34 ranked LSU.  Overall, the Gator's had the #46 ranked team with the #58 ranked offense and the #31 ranked defense.

2011
With Muschamp taking over as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 6-6 and finished overall at 7-6 with their bowl victory over #44 ranked Ohio State.   Florida played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-5 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings (#1 Alabama, #3 LSU,  #11 South Carolina, #14 Florida State and #21 Georgia - all losses).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #35 ranked Vanderbilt and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Auburn.  Overall, the Gator's had the #54 ranked team with the #96 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense.

2012
Muschamp's second season has been the most productive of the three season with the Gator's finishing the regular season at 11-1 and finished overall at 11-2 with their bowl loss to #27 ranked Louisville.   Florida played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was greater than two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 4-1 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with victories over (#2 Florida State, #7 Texas A&M, #14 LSU, and #20 South Carolina, and a loss to #4 Georgia).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #2 ranked Florida State and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Louisville.  Overall, the Gator's had the #13 ranked team with the #72 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.

2013
In Muschamp's third season as head football coach the Florida Gator's finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.   Florida played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Florida was 0-4 against teams in the top 25 of the end of season Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings with losses to (#1 Florida State, #11 LSU, #13 Missouri, and #14 South Carolina).

The Gator's best game was a victory over #53 ranked Toledo and their worst loss was to FCS Georgia Southern.  Overall, the Gator's had the #79 ranked team with the #114 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense.

As you can see, Florida has been on a downward trend since the end of the 2009/10 season.