Indiana University Athletic Department Finances

In a recent article in the Indy Star, there is a question regarding Indiana University's recent release of a $13 million athletic department surplus (last line in the Table below) from IU's MFRS reports.

A classic example of "everybody's broke": https://t.co/VnVXMaPSRq

"The vast majority of that [surplus]... gets eaten up in our expenditures on capital projects. In essence, there is no surplus. We’re pretty much spending all the revenue and the resources we accumulate."

— Andy Schwarz (@andyhre) January 25, 2020

Here is a longer view of Indiana University's athletic department's total revenue, total expenses, the surplus/deficit and debt service.

AY	FY		Total Revenue		Total Exp.		Surplus/Deficit		Ath. Debt Service
2004	2005		$37,968,912		$38,805,232		-$836,320		$0
2005	2006		$41,508,845		$41,434,508		$74,337		$0
2006	2007		$46,425,225		$43,212,993		$3,212,232		$7,290,541
2007	2008		$57,155,333		$50,920,826		$6,234,507		$771,000
2008	2009		$61,136,237		$55,652,636		$5,483,601		$3,316,000
2009	2010		$69,287,811		$65,796,415		$3,491,396		$3,321,000
2010	2011		$71,017,355		$69,314,511		$1,702,844		$3,325,000
2011	2012		$72,973,954		$69,915,060		$3,058,894		$3,841,000
2012	2013		$76,660,265		$72,597,053		$4,063,212		$4,424,805
2013	2014		$84,668,779		$80,386,732		$4,282,047		$4,428,448
2014	2015		$88,362,421		$88,330,530		$31,891		$4,651,886
2015	2016		$95,216,762		$94,190,256		$1,026,506		$6,007,186
2016	2017		$106,139,192		$106,131,819		$7,373		$6,863,227
2017	2018		$122,933,136		$116,277,652		$6,655,484		$9,157,519
2018	2019		$127,832,628		$114,822,135		$13,010,493		$9,230,540

For those who prefer a visual of this data, see below.

Competitve Balance in the NCAA FBS

Yesterday, this article was posted positing that NCAA FBS is broken because the same top teams are in contention for the national championship game year after year.  Yet in terms of analysis the article is severely lacking. 

So, here is one take on this idea, and that is with regard to the overall level of competitive balance in all of the NCAA FBS.  I am using the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure.  The Noll-Scully Competitive Balance calculates the actual standard deviation of winning percent to an idealized standard deviation of winning percent, where the idealized standard deviation is measured as if wins and losses are randomly determined.  The closer the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure is to one, the greater the league's competitive balance.  For those that are interested in calculating this on their own, here is a step-by-step guide as to how to perform the Noll-Scully competitive balance calculation.

For a viewpoint of more than one season, I have looked at the data since 1996 (the season that overtime was instituted - and ties no longer take place).  This allows for the win/loss competitive balance measure to be used and compared from season to season.  As you can see in the chart below, competitive balance has remained rather stable since 1996, calling into question the hypothesis that college football is broke.

Top 25 Ranked NCAA FBS Teams (2008 - 2019)

Scott Cunningham asked on Twitter:

Do football fans ever create rankings of “best teams” across seasons? If so, where does this years LSU fit in the distribution of best teams? Is Alabama at its best iow going to win or lose last night?

— scott cunningham (@causalinf) January 14, 2020

So I thought I would tackle part of the question - where does LSU fit in the distribution of teams across seasons.  I am using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model (except since I am estimating all the seasons since 2008 - I used a panel data regression with clustered standard errors by conference).

Below is the results for the Top 25 NCAA FBS best team's since 2008.  For those interested, LSU in 2019 was ranked #6 out of 1503.

Rank	Season		Name
1	2013		Florida State
2	2019		Clemson
3	2019		Ohio State
4	2018		Clemson
5	2008		Florida
6	2019		LSU
7	2016		Alabama
8	2010		Boise State
9	2011		Houston
10	2018		Alabama
11	2013		Baylor
12	2017		Alabama
13	2019		Alabama
14	2012		Alabama
15	2010		TCU
16	2008		USC
17	2011		Alabama
18	2016		Washington
19	2014		Oregon
20	2008		Oklahoma
21	2013		Louisville
22	2009		Florida
23	2014		TCU
24	2013		Oregon
25	2011		LSU

Top 25 Ranked Defense (2008 - 2019)

Scott Cunningham asked on Twitter:

Do football fans ever create rankings of “best teams” across seasons? If so, where does this years LSU fit in the distribution of best teams? Is Alabama at its best iow going to win or lose last night?

— scott cunningham (@causalinf) January 14, 2020

So I thought I would tackle part of the question - where does LSU fit in the distribution of teams across seasons.  I am using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model (except since I am estimating all the seasons since 2008 - I used a panel data regression with clustered standard errors by conference).

Tomorrow, I will give an answer to Prof. Cunningham's question about "best teams" since 2008.

Below is the results for the Top 25 NCAA FBS best (most productive) Defense's since 2008.  For those interested, LSU in 2019 was ranked #610 out of 1503.

Rank	Season		Name
1	2011		Alabama
2	2011		LSU
3	2013		Louisville
4	2018		Mississippi State
5	2009		Alabama
6	2008		USC
7	2009		Florida
8	2017		Alabama
9	2009		Ohio State
10	2009		Nebraska
11	2008		TCU
12	2010		Ohio State
13	2016		Michigan
14	2008		Tennessee
15	2010		Boise State
16	2013		Michigan State
17	2009		Air Force
18	2008		Florida
19	2009		Penn State
20	2016		Alabama
21	2010		TCU
22	2016		Ohio State
23	2012		Alabama
24	2012		Florida
25	2011		South Carolina

Top 25 Ranked Offense (2008 - 2019)

Scott Cunningham asked on Twitter:

Do football fans ever create rankings of “best teams” across seasons? If so, where does this years LSU fit in the distribution of best teams? Is Alabama at its best iow going to win or lose last night?

— scott cunningham (@causalinf) January 14, 2020

So I thought I would tackle part of the question - where does LSU fit in the distribution of teams across seasons.  I am using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model (except since I am estimating all the seasons since 2008 - I used a panel data regression with clustered standard errors by conference).

Tomorrow, I will post the top 25 best (most productive) defensive teams and the following day I will give an answer to Prof. Cunningham's question about "best teams" since 2008.

Below is the results for the Top 25 NCAA FBS best (most productive) Offense's since 2008.  As you can see, LSU had the #1 most productive offense since 2008!

Rank	Season		Name
1	2019		LSU
2	2011		Houston
3	2014		Oregon
4	2019		Clemson
5	2018		Clemson
6	2013		Florida State
7	2008		Oklahoma
8	2013		Baylor
9	2018		Alabama
10	2019		Ohio State
11	2018		Oklahoma
12	2014		Ohio State
13	2017		Oklahoma
14	2014		Marshall
15	2009		Houston
16	2008		Tulsa
17	2018		Ohio State
18	2015		Baylor
19	2011		Oklahoma State
20	2015		Western Kentucky
21	2011		Baylor
22	2013		Ohio State
23	2016		Clemson
24	2015		Clemson
25	2010		Hawai'i

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Final Ranking

Congratulations to the LSU Tigers for winning the National Championship game on Monday night.  With the final NCAA FBS post season game played, the final NCAA FBS rankings are now finalized.  According to the model, Ohio State was the most productive team in all of the FBS, even after losing to Clemson.  Clemson was more productive than LSU, but LSU won the national championship.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Clemson
3	Alabama
4	LSU
5	Oregon
6	Notre Dame
7	Georgia
8	Utah
9	UCF
10	Navy
11	Appalachian State
12	Wisconsin
13	Penn State
14	Florida
15	Buffalo
16	Baylor
17	Louisiana-Lafayette
18	Oklahoma
19	Air Force
20	Minnesota
21	Iowa
22	Auburn
23	San Diego State
24	Florida Atlantic
25	Louisiana Tech

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4 
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #13
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #14
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #15
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #16

2019 NCAA FBS National Champtionship Game

Today's NCAA FBS National Championship Game pits the Clemson Tigers of the ACC against the LSU Tigers of the SEC.  Here is the "tale of the tape" for the game tonight.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Clemson Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Clemson Tigers (14-0) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #1 currently ranked Ohio State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #2
Current Offense Production Rank:  #3
Current Defense Production Rank:  #1

LSU Tigers (14-0) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Alabama
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #3
Current Offense Production Rank:  #2
Current Defense Production Rank:  #35

2019 Lending Tree Bowl

Today in the Lending Tree Bowl the Louisiana (LaFayette) Rajun Cajuns from the Sun Belt Conference are pitted against the Miami (OH) Redhawks from Mid American Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Louisiana-LaFayette Rajun Cajuns.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns (10-3) of the Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #32 currently ranked Ohio
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #65 currently ranked Mississippi State
Current Total Production Rank:  #15
Current Offense Production Rank:  #6
Current Defense Production Rank:  #53

Miami (OH) Redhawks (8-5) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #20 currently ranked Buffalo
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #58 currently ranked Ball State
Current Total Production Rank:  #102
Current Offense Production Rank:  #108
Current Defense Production Rank:  #79

Joe Moorhead Fired from Mississippi State

Last Friday, Joe Moorhead was fired as Mississippi State's head football coach.  Moorhead was the head football coach at Mississippi State for two seasons where the Bulldogs were 14-12 during that time period.  Here is a look at the Mississippi State Bulldogs football team since 2008; under three different head coaches - Croom (partial), Mullen and Moorhead.  As you will notice, Mississippi State had a great 2018 defense under Moorhead, but the teams productivity has fallen off this season.

Below is the Mississippi State Bulldogs production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com, as well as lines for head coaching firing.  More details about the program under Moorhead is provided below.

Joe Moorhead [2018-2019]

2018
At the end of Moorhead's first season at the helm of the Mississippi State football program, the Bulldogs finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #15 ranked Iowa by a score of (22-27) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Bulldogs played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Mississippi State's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Mississippi State's best regular season victory was against #29 ranked Auburn by a score of (23-9) and their worst loss was to #32 ranked Kentucky by a score of (7-28).  The Bulldogs finished the season as the #5 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019
Mississippi State finished the regular season at 6-6, while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule and were bowl eligible where they were defeated by #75 ranked Louisville in the Music City Bowl by a score of (28-38).  Mississippi State's best regular season victory was against #15 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette by a score of (38-28) and their worst loss was to #62 ranked Tennessee by a score of (10-20).  Mississippi State (at the time of Moorhead's firing) was the #65 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #87 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Today in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl the Southern Mississippi from Conference USA is pitted against the Tulane Green Wave from American Athletic Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Tulane Green Wave.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #49 currently ranked UAB
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #65 currently ranked Mississippi State
Current Total Production Rank:  #77
Current Offense Production Rank:  #82
Current Defense Production Rank:  #68

Tulane Green Wave (6-6) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #34 currently ranked Army
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #53 currently ranked Temple
Current Total Production Rank:  #48
Current Offense Production Rank:  #39
Current Defense Production Rank:  #62

2019 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

In today's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl pits the Nevada Wolfpack from the Mountain West Conference against the Ohio Bobcats from Mid American Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Ohio Bobcats.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Nevada Wolfpack (7-5) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #20 currently ranked Buffalo
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #102 currently ranked Miami (OH)
Current Total Production Rank:  #32
Current Offense Production Rank:  #21
Current Defense Production Rank:  #64

Ohio Bobcats (6-6) of the Mid American Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #33 currently ranked San Diego State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #108 currently ranked UNLV
Current Total Production Rank:  #112
Current Offense Production Rank:  #111
Current Defense Production Rank:  #92

2019 Taxslayer Gator Bowl

Later tonight in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl the Indiana Hoosiers from the Big 10 Conference against the Tennessee Volunteers from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Indiana Hoosiers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #58 currently ranked Ball State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #69 currently ranked Michigan State
Current Total Production Rank:  #30
Current Offense Production Rank:  #35
Current Defense Production Rank:  #41

Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #36 currently ranked Missouri
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #91 currently ranked Georgia State
Current Total Production Rank:  #62
Current Offense Production Rank:  #94
Current Defense Production Rank:  #25

2019 TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Today in the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl pits the Cincinnati Bearcats from American Athletic Conference against the Boston College Eagles from Atlantic Coast Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives a slight edge to the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #11 currently ranked UCF
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #21 currently ranked Memphis
Current Total Production Rank:  #38
Current Offense Production Rank:  #44
Current Defense Production Rank:  #50

Boston College Eagles (6-6) of Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #39 currently ranked Virginia Tech
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #122 currently ranked Kansas
Current Total Production Rank:  #83
Current Offense Production Rank:  #56
Current Defense Production Rank:  #100

2019 AllState Sugar Bowl

In today's AllState Sugar Bowl the Georgia Bulldogs from the Southeastern Conference face the Baylor Bears from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Georgia Bulldogs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #12 currently ranked Notre Dame
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #90 currently ranked South Carolina
Current Total Production Rank:  #9
Current Offense Production Rank:  #24
Current Defense Production Rank:  #3

Baylor Bears (11-2) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #29 currently ranked Iowa State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #7 currently ranked Oklahoma
Current Total Production Rank:  #10
Current Offense Production Rank:  #9
Current Defense Production Rank:  #22

2019 Rose Bowl

In today's Rose Bowl the Wisconsin Badgers from the Big 10 Conference face the Oregon Ducks from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Oregon Ducks.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #24 currently ranked Minnesota
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #79 currently ranked Illinois
Current Total Production Rank:  #8
Current Offense Production Rank:  #11
Current Defense Production Rank:  #13

Oregon Ducks (11-2) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #6 currently ranked Utah
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #63 currently ranked Arizona State
Current Total Production Rank:  #5
Current Offense Production Rank:  #8
Current Defense Production Rank:  #10

2019 VRBO Citrus Bowl

In today's VRBO Citrus Bowl the Alabama Crimson Tide from the Southeastern Conference face the Michigan Wolverines from the Big 10 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #50 currently ranked Texas A&M
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #19 currently ranked Auburn
Current Total Production Rank:  #4
Current Offense Production Rank:  #5
Current Defense Production Rank:  #9

Michigan Wolverines (9-3) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Much Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #12 currently ranked Notre Dame
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #16 currently ranked Penn State
Current Total Production Rank:  #26
Current Offense Production Rank:  #37
Current Defense Production Rank:  #24

2019 Outback Bowl

In today's Outback Bowl the Minnesota Golden Gophers from the Big 10 Conference face the Auburn Tigers from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Auburn Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #16 currently ranked Penn State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #28 currently ranked Iowa
Current Total Production Rank:  #24
Current Offense Production Rank:  #31
Current Defense Production Rank:  #23

Auburn Tigers (9-3) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Alabama
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #13 currently rankedFlorida
Current Total Production Rank:  #19
Current Offense Production Rank:  #27
Current Defense Production Rank:  #18