In terms of the amount, we can use the estimated coefficient
from the regression to answer this question.
In the regression that I ran, I find that the coefficient (marginal
effect) is equal to 0.072997. This
number is interpreted as follows: a one
unit increase in relative payroll on average yields a 0.072997 increase in
regular season winning percent. So how
much is a one unit increase in relative payroll? Relative payroll is average payroll during
each season. Over the 2011 to 2018
seasons, relative payroll equals $128,432,967.
So the regression tells us that if a team increases their team payroll
by $128,432,967 that the average team’s regular season winning percent
increases from 0.500 to 0.507, which over a 162 game regular season means that
teams would win an additional 11.82 games. Another way of looking at it, is
that each win would result in an additional $10,860,711 spent on payroll. Now for an average team that does not seem
like a good deal, but for teams “on the bubble” of making or not making the
post-season, this might be a serious consideration.
Finally, how much does relative payroll explain regular
season winning percentage? In other
words, even if relative payroll is positive and statistically significant, how
much does the variation in relative payroll relate to the variation in regular
season winning percent? To answer that
question, we use the regression’s R2. From the regression results, the R2 is equal
to 0.1302, which I interpret as relative payroll “explains” only 13.02% of
regular season winning percent. Hence,
the explanatory power of relative payroll seems to be not very strong. Think of it this way, if the weather forecast
states there is a 13% chance of rain, will you wear rain boots, a rain coat and
carry an umbrella for just a 13% chance?
I would not. In the same way,
should MLB general managers spend $128 million dollars to increase winning
percent 7%, when the “weather forecast” of rain is 13%?