Dave Berri on the Oklahoma City Thunder

Check out Dave Berri's thoughts on the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Dave is the lead author of The Wages of Wins.

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9

Here is the top 25 using the complex invasion college (FBS) football model using data from college football stats.  As you can see, Florida State has re-taken the #1 spot, now just slightly ahead of Alabama in the absolute measure of production.

Rank	Team
1	Florida State
2	Alabama
3	Kansas State
4	LSU
5	North Carolina
6	Fresno State
7	Ohio State
8	Texas A&M
9	Oregon
10	Georgia
11	Oklahoma
12	Nebraska
13	Texas Tech
14	Florida
15	Boise State
16	Clemson
17	Oklahoma State
18	South Carolina
19	Tulsa
20	Mississippi State
21	UCF
22	Michigan
23	Utah State
24	San Diego State
25	Notre Dame

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

2012 Notre Dame - Oklahoma Preview

Thought that I would look at the Notre Dame - Oklahoma game this weekend using the NCAA FBS model.

Notre Dame is ranked in my model as the #11 team in the nation, with the 82nd best offense (below average) and the #2 defense in the nation - yes they are really that good.  For those interested in strength of schedule (SOS), I have Notre Dame's current SOS at 58.86.  The average SOS as of last week was 69.51, so Notre Dame has had a stronger strength of schedule.  Notre Dame's best opponent so far has been Michigan - currently ranked #30 overall (won).

Oklahoma is ranked as the #5 team using my model and have the #17 offense and the #8 best defense.  Oklahoma's SOS is a 68.33, which is closer to the average.  Oklahoma has played tougher opponents (Kansas State currently #3 overall (loss) and Texas Tech currently #8 overall (won)).

So in terms of the game (from the model's perspective) it looks as if Notre Dame's offense has a difficult road against such a relatively more productive Oklahoma defense.  Thus the model would predict that Oklahoma will be the winner, but who actually knows - that's the fun of sports.

Idaho Head Football Coach Robb Akey Fired

The first head football coach casualty took place earlier this week with the University of Idaho firing head coach Robb Akey.  That got me thinking about how the University of Idaho has fared using the complex invasion college football production model during Akey's tenure at Idaho.  (Actually, I am not including his first year - 2007 - since the data that I use in the model does not go back that far.)  So with that issue mentioned upfront, let's take a look at Idaho using the lens of the NCAA production model.

Starting in 2008, Idaho finished ranked #117 (out of 120 teams overall), with the #111th best offense and the #118th best defense; a fairly poor performance.

In 2009, Idaho finished ranked #76 overall, with the #26th best offense and the #115th best defense; a much improved performance, although still below average.

In 2010, Idaho finished ranked #79 overall, with the #61st best offense and the #91st best defense.  The overall performance has not changed much, with a loss on the ability to score points and a gain on the ability to deter their opponent to score points.

In 2011, Idaho finished ranked #77 overall, with the #113th best offense and the #44th best defense.  The overall performance has not changed much.  Again, Idaho's points score performance is sliding and their points scored against is rising.

For this year (2012) through eight games, Idaho is currently ranked #124 (out of 124 teams overall), with the #115th best offense and the #124th best defense; a very poor performance.

Value of College Athletes Images

Roger Noll (of the Noll-Scully competitive balance measure) has estimated the value of college athletes images.

2012 NCAA FBS Week 8

Here is the latest top 25 using the complex invasion sport model for college football (FBS) using the data from college football stats.  Notice that Alabama is now the most productive team in the nation and that Florida State is now #2.

 

Rank	Team
1	Alabama
2	Florida State
3	Kansas State
4	Oregon
5	Oklahoma
6	Rutgers
7	LSU
8	Texas Tech
9	Northern Illinois
10	Cincinnati
11	Notre Dame
12	Mississippi State
13	Florida
14	Ohio State
15	USC
16	Utah State
17	North Carolina
18	Georgia
19	Fresno State
20	Louisiana Tech
21	Oklahoma State
22	South Carolina
23	Texas A&M
24	Nebraska
25	Louisville

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

2012 NCAA FBS Week 7

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the sixth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  Thanks to the college football stats website.

For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.

Rank	Team	BCS
1	Florida State	(14)
2	Oregon	(3)
3	Northern Illinois	(NR)
4	Alabama	(1)
5	North Carolina	(--)
6	South Carolina	(7)
7	Kansas State	(4)
8	Ohio State	(--)
9	Texas A&M	(18)
10	LSU	(6)
11	Fresno State	(NR)
12	Arizona State	(NR)
13	Texas Tech	(17)
14	UCLA	(NR)
15	Nevada	(NR)
16	Tulsa	(NR)
17	Georgia	(11)
18	San Diego State	(NR)
19	Ohio	(NR)
20	Mississippi	(NR)
21	TCU	(23)
22	Mississippi State	(12)
23	Nebraska	(NR)
24	Florida	(2)
25	Georgia Tech	(NR)

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Dave Berri on MLB Payroll & Performance

Article by my friend and co-author - David Berri - on the relationship between payroll and performance in MLB over the last 25 years.

Congrats!

Congrats to the three teams that are now FBS bowl eligible for the 2012-2013 bowl season:  Ohio University, University of Oregon and University of South Carolina.

2012 NCAA FBS Week 6

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the fifth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  Yes, FSU lost last week, but given their superior performance relative to the other teams, they still have a slight lead over the new #2 team - South Carolina.

For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Florida State
2	South Carolina
3	Kansas State
4	Alabama
5	Oregon
6	Rutgers
7	Ohio State
8	Notre Dame
9	LSU
10	Fresno State
11	North Carolina
12	Texas A&M
13	Mississippi State
14	Arizona State
15	West Virginia
16	Georgia
17	Florida
18	TCU
19	Cincinnati
20	Texas Tech
21	Oklahoma
22	BYU
23	Boise State
24	Iowa
25	Louisiana Tech

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

MLB Regular Season: Cabrera vs Trout

I had someone tweet me a few days ago asking who is better Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout.  Well, given the Cabrera just won the triple crown - something that has not occurred since before I was born, it should be Cabrera by a mile - right?  Not exactly.

So, since we are comparing batters in the same season, the easiest method is to use the Blass Runs Produced measure of MLB batters.  So, that is what I am doing.  Now for the disclaimer:  since I have not had time to download and run the regression on the MLB 2012 season, I will use the weights for the statistics for the 2000-2011 regular seasons to evaluate the two players performance.  Each year, I try to tackle this in February when I get the itch for baseball (and the Lehman database is posted on the internet).

Given this disclaimer of using the 2000-2011 statistical weights from the runs scored linear regression, I calculate that Miguel Cabrera is slightly more productive than Mike Trout.  Cabrera comes in at 111.98 and Trout at 109.51, or a difference of just only about two and a half runs produced.  In the scheme of things, this is not a large difference.

For the details on how I made this calculation:

MLB Team Runs Productivity
MLB Batter Runs Productivity

Week 5: Best Defenses in NCAA Football

Yesterday I posted on the Top 25 NCAA FBS offense teams in terms of the complex invasion sports model. Today I am going to look at the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of points against (or defense). Thus I am only looking at points against using the four key factors of NCAA FBS production: acquiring the ball, maintaining possession, moving the ball and scoring efficiency. I also make allowances for different conferences.

Here is the list of the 2012 Top 25 NCAA "defenses" through week #5.

Rank Name   1 Notre Dame 2 TCU 3 Texas Tech 4 Alabama 5 South Carolina 6 Stanford 7 Rutgers 8 Florida State 9 Oklahoma 10 UTSA 11 Texas A&M 12 Mississippi State 13 BYU 14 Boise State 15 LSU 16 Washington 17 Florida 18 Penn State 19 Cincinnati 20 Maryland 21 Michigan State 22 Kansas State 23 Arizona State 24 Temple 25 USC

Week 5: Best Offenses in NCAA Football

Yesterday I posted on the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of the complex invasion sports model.  Today I am going to look at the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of scoring (or offense).  Thus I am only looking at points scored using the four key factors of NCAA FBS production:  acquiring the ball, maintaining possession, moving the ball and scoring efficiency.  I also make allowances for different conferences.  I do not adjust for strength of schedule for reasons stated previously.  For those wondering about last season, here is the blog on strength of schedule and NCAA team performance.

Here is the list of the 2012 Top 25 NCAA "offenses" through week #5.

Rank Name   1 Georgia 2 Florida State 3 Nevada 4 Oregon 5 Fresno State 6 UCLA 7 West Virginia 8 Clemson 9 Oklahoma State 10 Tennessee 11 Nebraska 12 Baylor 13 Marshall 14 North Carolina 15 Georgia Tech 16 Tulsa 17 Louisiana Tech 18 Arizona 19 LSU 20 Texas A&M 21 Miami (Florida) 22 Ohio State 23 Alabama 24 Ball State 25 Akron

2012 NCAA FBS Week 5

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the fourth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.

Rank Team 1 Florida State 2 Alabama 3 Texas Tech 4 Georgia 5 LSU 6 Texas A&M 7 South Carolina 8 Oregon 9 Nebraska 10 UCLA 11 Arizona State 12 Ohio State 13 West Virginia 14 TCU 15 Fresno State 16 North Carolina 17 Kansas State 18 Mississippi State 19 BYU 20 Oklahoma State 21 Notre Dame 22 Nevada 23 Rutgers 24 Ohio 25 Clemson

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2