Monday, October 28, 2019

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Ohio State University Buckeyes.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Ohio State
2 Penn State
3 Oklahoma
4 Utah
5 Georgia
6 LSU
7 Oregon
8 Baylor
9 UCF
10 Alabama
11 Minnesota
12 Louisiana Tech
13 Louisiana-Lafayette
14 Florida
15 Boise State
16 Clemson
17 Iowa State
18 Appalachian State
19 Indiana
20 Auburn
21 UAB
22 Washington State
23 TCU
24 Tulane
25 Missouri

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4 
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8

Sunday, October 20, 2019

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Ohio State University Buckeyes.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Ohio State
2 Oklahoma
3 Wisconsin
4 Alabama
5 Oregon
6 Penn State
7 LSU
8 Georgia
9 Clemson
10 Utah
11 Baylor
12 Notre Dame
13 Navy
14 Memphis
15 Auburn
16 UCF
17 Florida
18 Minnesota
19 Iowa State
20 Missouri
21 SMU
22 Louisiana-Lafayette
23 Boise State
24 Tulane
25 Air Force

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4 
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Air Force and the Mountain West Conference

Last week head football coach Troy Calhoun made some remarks questioning the continued membership of the Air Force Falcons and their membership in the Mountain West Conference.  From reading the article above, it seems that Calhoun is concerned about travel (away game at Hawai'i) and possibly the level of competition.  Regarding travel, I don't have much to say.  Regarding the level of competition, here are a few observations.

First, let's look at all of the teams (like Air Force) that have been members of the Mountain West Conference since the 2008 season.  Below is a graph of those teams total production ranking using  the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model and the aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  As you can see below, other than San Diego State, Air Force has been one of the more productive teams among Mountain West Conference members with longevity.

But, there have been a number of teams that have been added as members since 2008.  Looking at those teams below shows that Air Force has not performed as well overall.  These numbers also come from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model and the aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.



One last thing to keep in mind.  Currently Army is a football independent and now has a relationship with CBS Sports in which many of the Army games are now televised.  It is possible that Calhoun thinks that following Army to be independent is better for Air Force.  I think this is what Calhoun is thinking, but I do not know any "inside" information - so its just a guess on my part.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Ohio State University Buckeyes.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Ohio State
2 Wisconsin
3 Oregon
4 Penn State
5 Alabama
6 Oklahoma
7 Georgia
8 LSU
9 Utah
10 Clemson
11 Missouri
12 Baylor
13 Navy
14 Notre Dame
15 Tulane
16 Boise State
17 UCF
18 Iowa State
19 Louisiana-Lafayette
20 Memphis
21 Florida
22 Minnesota
23 TCU
24 Indiana
25 Auburn

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4 
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Kansas Fires Offensive Coordinator for the Second Year in a Row

Another season, another offensive coordinator is let go from the University of Kansas.  It was around this time last year that Doug Meacham was fired.   Earlier this week, Les Koenning was fired after six games as the University of Kansas offensive coordinator.   Let's take a look at the Kansas Jayhawks performance on the offensive side of the ball since 2008.  To measure this, I am using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

As you can see in the figure below, the Kansas Jayhawk's offense hasn't been above average since 2009.  So for Kansas to be poor on the offensive side of the ball is a decade long trend.



If we take a look at just the 2019 season, things look a little different.  During weeks 2 through 4, the defense was the star of the show for the Jayhawks', being above average as compared to the rest of the "league", while the offense was below average; and terrible in week 2.  Yet the last two weeks, while the offense has not brightened, its the defense that is now the concern, and at the end of week 6, the offense was finally higher in terms of productivity than the defense.  It is curious that after week 6, when the defense was dropping substantially, is when Les Koenning was fired.



Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Washington State Football Defensive Coordinator Resigns

Last Friday Yahoo! Sports reported that Tracy Claeys resigned as defensive coordinator for the Washington State Cougars.  So, now that I have finished grading four exams, let's take a look at the Washington State Cougars performance on the defensive side of the ball since 2008.  To measure this, I am using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

As you can see in the figure below, the only seasons Washington State's defense was above average was from 2016 to 2018; and Claeys was the defensive coordinator in 2018.  So for Washington State to be poor on the defensive side of the ball is not new.


Turning to this season, we see in the chart below that while the offense is one of the most productive in the nation, defensive production has been declining since week 2 of this season.



Tuesday, October 8, 2019

2019 MLB Attendance Analysis

Today I want to focus on MLB fan behavior by looking at MLB team regular season attendance.  To do this, I grabbed the data off of ESPN’s website.  So let’s look at the 2019 regular season attendance data.  First, a total of 68,478,648 attended (or at least bought tickets) to regular season MLB games this past season.  The LA Dodgers had the highest total attendance (3,974,309 fans) and the Miami Marlins had the lowest total attendance (811,302 fans).  The average number of fans over the season was 2,282,622; with a standard deviation of 762,879.

Compared to the previous season, overall attendance at MLB regular season games was down by over 1.7 million fans with the largest declines by Toronto (-575,137) and Seattle (-507,552).  Those two franchises represent over half of the total decline in MLB regular season attendance alone.  The average decline in fan attendance was (-39,036) from the previous season.  So, was this a (statistically) significant decline in MLB attendance?  To answer that question, I will use a t-test, which is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables and then allows one to determine the degree of confidence that the two variables have to each other.  The t-test for regular season team attendance from the 2018 to 2019 seasons results in 0.3944.  The standard threshold for a t-test to be statistically significant is 0.0500.  Thus since the t-test is above 0.0500, I conclude that while the change in regular season team attendance declined from 2018 to 2019, it did not decline in a statistically significant manner.