Sean Kugler Resigns at UTEP

Earlier today University of Texas at El-Paso (UTEP) head football coach Sean Kugler resigned.  The Miners are currently winless this season, with an 0-5 mark.  With his resignation, let's take a look at the UTEP Miners under Kugler's tenure as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the UTEP Miners football program during Kugler's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   UTEP has been below average each season under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Kugler are after the chart below as well as a link to his contract.

Sean Kugler [2013-2017*] (2015 amended contract)

2013
At the end of the Kugler's first season, the Miners finished 2-10.  UTEP played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" SOS.  The Miners best victory was against #117 New Mexico State (42-21) and their worst loss was to #106 ranked Tulsa by a score of (20-34).  UTEP had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #107 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Miners again finished the regular season at 7-5 and were bowl eligible, but lost their bowl game against #32 ranked Utah State by a score of (6-21).  UTEP played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Miners best regular season game was a victory (24-21) over #74 ranked Middle Tennessee State, and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (26-30).  Overall, the Miners had the #69 ranked team with the #75 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
UTEP finished the regular season overall at 5-7 (bowl ineligible).  UTEP played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Miners best game again was their victory over #101 ranked Florida Atlantic (27-17), and their worst loss was to #105 ranked UTSA (6-25).  UTEP had the #115 ranked team in total production with the #119 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Miners were again bowl ineligible with a 4-8 win/loss record, while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that UTEP had an SOS between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average SOS.  The Miners best win was over #71 ranked UTSA (52-49) and their worst loss was to #124 ranked Rice by a score of (24-44).  UTEP had the #82 ranked team in total production with the #71 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Near the halfway mark of the regular season the Miners were 0-5, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Miners worst loss was to currently ranked #125 Rice by a score of (14-31).  At the time of Kugler's resignation, UTEP had the #130 ranked team in total production (that is the worst team), with the #120 ranked offense and the #128 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Penn State is currently the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank	Team
1	Penn State
2	Washington
3	Alabama
4	Oklahoma
5	Washington State
6	Virginia Tech
7	Clemson
8	Ohio State
9	Oregon
10	West Virginia
11	TCU
12	Wisconsin
13	Wake Forest
14	Mississippi State
15	SMU
16	Notre Dame
17	Texas A&M
18	South Florida
19	USC
20	Louisville
21	Texas Tech
22	Michigan
23	Virginia
24	Georgia
25	New Mexico State

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Chris Brown's Observation about East Carolina

Earlier this month Chris B. Brown tweeted about East Carolina being "atrocious".

Can someone explain to me why East Carolina fired Ruffin McNeil? Always been a fine program, but they look atrocious

— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball) September 11, 2017

Here is my analysis of the Pirates under McNeill's tenure as head football coach. What I found was that the team was on an upward trend during the first five years as head coach, and then had one poor season and was let go.  While I cannot answer why former head coach McNeill was let go, I can confirm that East Carolina is currently "atrocious".

In the following season (2016), East Carolina was 3-9 and in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model the Pirates were ranked #113 out of 128 at the end of the season, with the #114 ranked offense and #100 ranked defense.

And things have gotten worse at the beginning of the 2017 season.  East Carolina after both the second and third full weeks of the season ranked as the worst team in all of the FBS.  Next week is not encouraging as they will face South Florida, which is currently a top 25 team in terms of total production.

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Penn State is currently the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank	Team
1	Penn State
2	Wisconsin
3	Mississippi State
4	Oklahoma State
5	Oklahoma
6	Washington
7	Duke
8	Clemson
9	Oregon
10	Wake Forest
11	South Florida
12	Maryland
13	Minnesota
14	TCU
15	Vanderbilt
16	Washington State
17	Virginia Tech
18	North Carolina State
19	Kansas State
20	UCF
21	Air Force
22	Utah
23	Texas A&M
24	Arizona
25	Texas Tech

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Air Force is currently the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of week #2.  It is still very early in the season, so much will be changing as the season moves forward.

Rank	Team
1	Air Force
2	Oklahoma
3	Clemson
4	Colorado
5	Penn State
6	Texas Tech
7	Kansas State
8	Oklahoma State
9	Miami (Florida)
10	LSU
11	Mississippi State
12	Alabama
13	Ohio
14	Washington
15	UCF
16	Wisconsin
17	Central Michigan
18	Northern Illinois
19	Colorado State
20	Georgia Tech
21	UTSA
22	Mississippi
23	Navy
24	Wake Forest
25	Connecticut

Hugh Freeze Out at Mississippi

The University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) and head football coach Hugh Freeze have parted ways recently.  While much is being made of the circumstances regrading coach Freeze's departure, I want to look at the football programs productivity during coach Freeze's tenure.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Mississippi Rebels football program during Freeze's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Mississippi has been trending upward since 2012 except for last season under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Freeze are after the chart below.

Hugh Freeze (2012 - 2016) [2015 contract]

2012
During Freeze's first year at the helm of the Rebels football team, Mississippi finished the end of the regular season at 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated to #31 Pittsburgh (38-17) to finish 7-6 overall.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi was within one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS.  The Rebels best win was over interstate rival #44 ranked Mississippi State (41-24) in the Egg Bowl, and their worst loss was to #53 ranked Texas by a score of (31-66).  Mississippi had the #45 ranked team in total production with the #48 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2013
At the end of the regular season the Rebels were 7-5 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #43 Georgia Tech (25-17) to finish 8-5 overall.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best victory was against #11 LSU (27-24) and their worst loss was to #47 ranked Mississippi State by a score of (10-17).  Mississippi had the #45 ranked team in total production with the #53 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Rebels again finished the regular season at 9-3 and were bowl eligible, losing to #1 ranked TCU by a score of (3-42).  Mississippi played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best regular season game was a victory (23-17) over #7 Alabama, and their worst loss was to #31 ranked LSU by a score of (3-10).  Overall, the Rebels had the #16 ranked team with the #39 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Mississippi finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #40 ranked Oklahoma State in their post-season bowl game by a score of (48-20) to finish the season at 10-3.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best game again was their victory over #7 ranked Alabama (43-37), and their worst loss was to #48 ranked Florida (10-38).  Mississippi had the #6 ranked team in total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #29 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Rebels were 5-7, and were bowl ineligible for the first time under Freeze's tenure, while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi had an SOS between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best win was over #45 ranked Georgia (45-14) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Arkansas by a score of (30-34).  Mississippi had the #83 ranked team in total production with the #56 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Ranking the Alabama Crimson Tide Under Head Coach Saban

The USA Today recently had an article ranking Alabama over the last ten seasons during Saban's tenure as head coach with the Crimson Tide.  So that prompted me to do the same, except that the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model that I use starts in 2008, so that I will not have anything to say specifically about the 2007 season.  The author of the article (Paul Myerberg) ranks the Crimson Tide teams [by season] as listed below.  I encourage you to read his thoughts in the article linked at the beginning of this blog, and here I will share mine.

Myerberg
2011
2009
2015
2012
2016
2013
2014
2008
2010
2007

First, let me briefly discuss the process about how I came up with the rankings.  To do this, I grabbed all the offense and defense data for all the FBS teams that I use for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from 2008 to 2016 and then I ran an offense regression and a defense regression.  I used the coefficient's from the offense and defense (which were all statistically significant and of the correct sign) and multiplied the actual on-field production to get a offense total value and a defense total value.  The higher the value for offense is a better offense and a lower value for defense is a better defense.  Then I subtracted the defense value from the offense value to get the total value.  The advantage here is that we are comparing those nine Crimson Tide seasons using the same "weights" for each season.

Second, I ranked offense, defense and total values since 2008.  Below is my rankings of the Alabama Crimson Tide (in terms of production) overall, with just offense and with just defense.

Total		Offense		Defense
2016		2016		2011
2012		2012		2009
2011		2014		2016
2009		2015		2012
2015		2013		2010
2010		2010		2008
2014		2009		2015
2013		2011		2013
2008		2008		2014

As you can see since 2008, last season's Crimson Tide was the most productive, and the 2008 team was the least productive (excluding 2007 since I don't have that data).  As you can see of the four national championships during Saban's tenure (2009, 2011, 2012 & 2015) that the 2016 team was actually more productive than the others and last year's team would have won except for that last exceptional drive by Clemson, that the 2016 team would also fit in that group.