Friday, September 29, 2023

Mel Tucker Fired from Head Football coaching duties at Michigan State

Earlier this week, Mel Tucker was fired as head football coach for the Michigan State Spartans after being suspended after the second game of the season.  Tucker's tenure at Michigan State was 20-14.

Mel Tucker was the head football coach at Michigan State for three seasons plus two games this season.  Here is a look at the Michigan State Spartans football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts).  Other than Tucker, the only other coach at Michigan State was Mark Dantonio.  As you will notice, Michigan State was fairly average during Tucker's tenure.

Below is the Michigan State Spartans production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  More details about the program under Tucker is provided below.

Mel Tucker [2020 - 2023] contract

2020
Michigan State finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 2-5 overall.  The Spartans played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was between one and two standard deviation less than the "leagues" average SOS.  Michigan State's best regular season victory was against #34 ranked Northwestern by a score of (29-20) and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Rutgers by a score of (27-38).  Michigan State was the #119 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
The Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2,while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State defeated #7 ranked Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl by a score of (31-21) to finish overall at 11-2.  Michigan State's best win was against #6 ranked Michigan by a score of (37-33) and their worst loss was to #37 ranked Purdue by a score of (29-40).  Michigan State was the #64 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022
Michigan State finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl game ineligible.  Michigan State played against a " tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State's best win was over #12 ranked Illinois (23-15) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Indiana by a score of (31-39).  Michigan State was the #102 ranked team overall, with the #100 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023*
Head coach Tucker was suspended after allegations emerged against him after the second game of the season; the Spartans were 2-0 at that time.  The Spartans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS through week 2 of the season.  During those two weeks, Michigan State's best win was against #97 ranked Central Michigan by a score of (31-7).  At the end of week 2 Michigan State was  the #16 ranked team overall, with the #40 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

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