Friday, September 29, 2023

Mel Tucker Fired from Head Football coaching duties at Michigan State

Earlier this week, Mel Tucker was fired as head football coach for the Michigan State Spartans after being suspended after the second game of the season.  Tucker's tenure at Michigan State was 20-14.

Mel Tucker was the head football coach at Michigan State for three seasons plus two games this season.  Here is a look at the Michigan State Spartans football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts).  Other than Tucker, the only other coach at Michigan State was Mark Dantonio.  As you will notice, Michigan State was fairly average during Tucker's tenure.

Below is the Michigan State Spartans production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  More details about the program under Tucker is provided below.

Mel Tucker [2020 - 2023] contract

2020
Michigan State finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 2-5 overall.  The Spartans played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was between one and two standard deviation less than the "leagues" average SOS.  Michigan State's best regular season victory was against #34 ranked Northwestern by a score of (29-20) and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Rutgers by a score of (27-38).  Michigan State was the #119 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
The Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2,while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State defeated #7 ranked Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl by a score of (31-21) to finish overall at 11-2.  Michigan State's best win was against #6 ranked Michigan by a score of (37-33) and their worst loss was to #37 ranked Purdue by a score of (29-40).  Michigan State was the #64 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022
Michigan State finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl game ineligible.  Michigan State played against a " tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State's best win was over #12 ranked Illinois (23-15) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Indiana by a score of (31-39).  Michigan State was the #102 ranked team overall, with the #100 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023*
Head coach Tucker was suspended after allegations emerged against him after the second game of the season; the Spartans were 2-0 at that time.  The Spartans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS through week 2 of the season.  During those two weeks, Michigan State's best win was against #97 ranked Central Michigan by a score of (31-7).  At the end of week 2 Michigan State was  the #16 ranked team overall, with the #40 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Southern California!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 USC
2 Penn State
3 Syracuse
4 Oklahoma
5 Oregon
6 Notre Dame
7 Washington
8 Miami (Florida)
9 Toledo
10 Oregon State
11 Kentucky
12 Texas A&M
13 Liberty
14 Wisconsin
15 Duke
16 Georgia
17 Maryland
18 Mississippi
19 Ohio State
20 Michigan
21 Tennessee
22 Colorado
23 California
24 UCLA
25 Louisville

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, September 17, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 03

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Notre Dame!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame
2 Syracuse
3 Oklahoma
4 Washington
5 USC
6 UCLA
7 Oregon
8 Memphis
9 Penn State
10 Duke
11 Ohio State
12 Oregon State
13 Clemson
14 Mississippi
15 Michigan
16 UCF
17 Miami (Florida)
18 Georgia State
19 Air Force
20 Auburn
21 Arkansas
22 Toledo
23 LSU
24 Wake Forest
25 TCU

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 02

Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 02

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Southern California!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 USC
2 Syracuse
3 Notre Dame
4 Washington
5 Penn State
6 Oregon State
7 Arkansas
8 Georgia
9 Mississippi
10 Oregon
11 Oklahoma
12 Tennessee
13 Memphis
14 Toledo
15 Maryland
16 Michigan State
17 Western Kentucky
18 Colorado
19 Texas
20 Kansas State
21 Cincinnati
22 Washington State
23 Liberty
24 Miami (Florida)
25 Auburn

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

none at this time

Tuesday, September 5, 2023

NCAA Clock Rule Change in Football

This year the NCAA has changed the rule regarding the stoppage (or rather the non-stoppage) of the play clock after a football team makes a first down (except with less than two minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarter).  This has led some to question if this is having an impact of the number of plays during a game.  It has, but not by much.  Below is the data since the 2015 season (excluding the COVID-19 season of 2020).  The columns are first, the season, second the average number of plays per game through week 1 for each season (yes, it can be more than one game if teams play in week "0"); the difference from the prior season (or since 2019 for the 2021 row) and whether the difference is statistically significant using a Welch's t-test among successive time periods.  As you can see the rule has resulted in about 1.6 fewer plays, but that is not even the largest drop.  So I am left to conclude that through week 1, the there are fewer plays, but I am unable to say that the rule change has had a statistically significant impact.

Season W1 Ave. Plays Difference Stat. Sign.?
2015 73.556

2016 72.039 -1.52 NO
2017 73.067 1.03 NO
2018 74.197 1.13 NO
2019 73.335 -0.86 NO
2021 70.738 -2.60 NO
2022 70.527 -0.21 NO
2023 68.936 -1.59 NO