Monday, December 11, 2023

Monday, December 4, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Georgia
4 Florida State
5 SMU
6 Penn State
7 Ohio State
8 Liberty
9 Notre Dame
10 Oklahoma
11 Alabama
12 James Madison
13 Texas
14 LSU
15 Troy
16 Kansas State
17 Toledo
18 Washington
19 Louisville
20 Clemson
21 Tennessee
22 North Carolina
23 Boise State
24 Arizona
25 Oregon State

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Monday, November 27, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is now the University of Oregon!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Michigan
3 Georgia
4 Penn State
5 Ohio State
6 Florida State
7 SMU
8 Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma
10 Liberty
11 LSU
12 Texas
13 Kansas State
14 Toledo
15 Louisville
16 Washington
17 Tennessee
18 Clemson
19 Arizona
20 Oregon State
21 Appalachian State
22 Missouri
23 Mississippi
24 Miami (Florida)
25 Jacksonville State

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Monday, November 20, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is again the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Ohio State
4 Georgia
5 Penn State
6 Oklahoma
7 Florida State
8 SMU
9 Notre Dame
10 Kansas State
11 Liberty
12 Alabama
13 LSU
14 Toledo
15 Washington
16 Oregon State
17 James Madison
18 North Carolina
19 Troy
20 Louisville
21 Texas A&M
22 Jacksonville State
23 Tennessee
24 Clemson
25 Texas

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

 

 

Monday, November 13, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is again the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Georgia
4 Ohio State
5 Oklahoma
6 Penn State
7 SMU
8 Kansas State
9 Florida State
10 Liberty
11 Oregon State
12 Notre Dame
13 James Madison
14 North Carolina
15 Alabama
16 Toledo
17 Tennessee
18 LSU
19 Washington
20 Louisville
21 Troy
22 Clemson
23 Texas
24 Texas A&M
25 Air Force

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is again the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Penn State
4 Georgia
5 SMU
6 Ohio State
7 Notre Dame
8 Oklahoma
9 Tennessee
10 Florida State
11 Liberty
12 North Carolina
13 Kansas State
14 Washington
15 Louisville
16 LSU
17 Oregon State
18 Toledo
19 Alabama
20 Mississippi
21 Air Force
22 James Madison
23 Troy
24 Texas
25 Miami (Florida)

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, October 29, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is again the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Georgia
4 Penn State
5 Notre Dame
6 Oklahoma
7 SMU
8 LSU
9 Ohio State
10 Kansas State
11 Liberty
12 Air Force
13 Florida State
14 Washington
15 UCLA
16 Mississippi
17 Miami (Florida)
18 Alabama
19 Tennessee
20 Texas
21 Oregon State
22 Louisville
23 Toledo
24 USC
25 North Carolina

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

 

Sunday, October 22, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is again the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Penn State
4 Oklahoma
5 LSU
6 Georgia
7 Ohio State
8 Notre Dame
9 Washington
10 Liberty
11 Alabama
12 UCLA
13 Air Force
14 Florida State
15 Miami (Florida)
16 SMU
17 Kansas State
18 Tennessee
19 Toledo
20 Texas
21 Oregon State
22 North Carolina
23 Missouri
24 South Alabama
25 Maryland

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Michigan!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 Oregon
3 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
5 Penn State
6 Notre Dame
7 Washington
8 Ohio State
9 LSU
10 Oregon State
11 Tennessee
12 Liberty
13 USC
14 TCU
15 Toledo
16 Alabama
17 Maryland
18 Duke
19 Florida State
20 Miami (Florida)
21 Louisville
22 Air Force
23 North Carolina
24 Fresno State
25 Mississippi

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Monday, October 9, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Oklahoma!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Oklahoma
2 Oregon
3 Georgia
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 USC
7 Notre Dame
8 Penn State
9 Miami (Florida)
10 Ohio State
11 Louisville
12 Syracuse
13 Mississippi
14 Maryland
15 Toledo
16 LSU
17 Alabama
18 Liberty
19 Oregon State
20 Texas
21 Tennessee
22 Clemson
23 Texas State
24 Fresno State
25 Air Force

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, October 1, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Oregon!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Oklahoma
3 Notre Dame
4 Penn State
5 Fresno State
6 Miami (Florida)
7 Louisville
8 USC
9 Washington
10 Syracuse
11 Michigan
12 Georgia
13 Texas
14 Maryland
15 Air Force
16 Tennessee
17 Alabama
18 Ohio State
19 Kentucky
20 Clemson
21 Mississippi
22 Duke
23 Oregon State
24 Liberty
25 Texas State

 2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Friday, September 29, 2023

Mel Tucker Fired from Head Football coaching duties at Michigan State

Earlier this week, Mel Tucker was fired as head football coach for the Michigan State Spartans after being suspended after the second game of the season.  Tucker's tenure at Michigan State was 20-14.

Mel Tucker was the head football coach at Michigan State for three seasons plus two games this season.  Here is a look at the Michigan State Spartans football team since 2008 (the year in which the data I use to model FBS production starts).  Other than Tucker, the only other coach at Michigan State was Mark Dantonio.  As you will notice, Michigan State was fairly average during Tucker's tenure.

Below is the Michigan State Spartans production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst teams) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  More details about the program under Tucker is provided below.

Mel Tucker [2020 - 2023] contract

2020
Michigan State finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 2-5 overall.  The Spartans played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was between one and two standard deviation less than the "leagues" average SOS.  Michigan State's best regular season victory was against #34 ranked Northwestern by a score of (29-20) and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Rutgers by a score of (27-38).  Michigan State was the #119 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
The Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2,while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State defeated #7 ranked Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl by a score of (31-21) to finish overall at 11-2.  Michigan State's best win was against #6 ranked Michigan by a score of (37-33) and their worst loss was to #37 ranked Purdue by a score of (29-40).  Michigan State was the #64 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022
Michigan State finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl game ineligible.  Michigan State played against a " tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Michigan State's best win was over #12 ranked Illinois (23-15) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Indiana by a score of (31-39).  Michigan State was the #102 ranked team overall, with the #100 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023*
Head coach Tucker was suspended after allegations emerged against him after the second game of the season; the Spartans were 2-0 at that time.  The Spartans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS); meaning that Michigan State's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS through week 2 of the season.  During those two weeks, Michigan State's best win was against #97 ranked Central Michigan by a score of (31-7).  At the end of week 2 Michigan State was  the #16 ranked team overall, with the #40 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Southern California!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 USC
2 Penn State
3 Syracuse
4 Oklahoma
5 Oregon
6 Notre Dame
7 Washington
8 Miami (Florida)
9 Toledo
10 Oregon State
11 Kentucky
12 Texas A&M
13 Liberty
14 Wisconsin
15 Duke
16 Georgia
17 Maryland
18 Mississippi
19 Ohio State
20 Michigan
21 Tennessee
22 Colorado
23 California
24 UCLA
25 Louisville

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, September 17, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 03

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Notre Dame!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Notre Dame
2 Syracuse
3 Oklahoma
4 Washington
5 USC
6 UCLA
7 Oregon
8 Memphis
9 Penn State
10 Duke
11 Ohio State
12 Oregon State
13 Clemson
14 Mississippi
15 Michigan
16 UCF
17 Miami (Florida)
18 Georgia State
19 Air Force
20 Auburn
21 Arkansas
22 Toledo
23 LSU
24 Wake Forest
25 TCU

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 02

Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 02

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Southern California!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 USC
2 Syracuse
3 Notre Dame
4 Washington
5 Penn State
6 Oregon State
7 Arkansas
8 Georgia
9 Mississippi
10 Oregon
11 Oklahoma
12 Tennessee
13 Memphis
14 Toledo
15 Maryland
16 Michigan State
17 Western Kentucky
18 Colorado
19 Texas
20 Kansas State
21 Cincinnati
22 Washington State
23 Liberty
24 Miami (Florida)
25 Auburn

2023 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

none at this time

Tuesday, September 5, 2023

NCAA Clock Rule Change in Football

This year the NCAA has changed the rule regarding the stoppage (or rather the non-stoppage) of the play clock after a football team makes a first down (except with less than two minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarter).  This has led some to question if this is having an impact of the number of plays during a game.  It has, but not by much.  Below is the data since the 2015 season (excluding the COVID-19 season of 2020).  The columns are first, the season, second the average number of plays per game through week 1 for each season (yes, it can be more than one game if teams play in week "0"); the difference from the prior season (or since 2019 for the 2021 row) and whether the difference is statistically significant using a Welch's t-test among successive time periods.  As you can see the rule has resulted in about 1.6 fewer plays, but that is not even the largest drop.  So I am left to conclude that through week 1, the there are fewer plays, but I am unable to say that the rule change has had a statistically significant impact.

Season W1 Ave. Plays Difference Stat. Sign.?
2015 73.556

2016 72.039 -1.52 NO
2017 73.067 1.03 NO
2018 74.197 1.13 NO
2019 73.335 -0.86 NO
2021 70.738 -2.60 NO
2022 70.527 -0.21 NO
2023 68.936 -1.59 NO

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

2022 NCAA FBS Top 25 Final Ranking

Congratulations to the University of Georgia, for a dominant win in the final FBS game of the 2022 season.  Here is the final NCAA FBS Top 25 using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com. The Complex Invasion College Football Production Model's most productive NCAA FBS team is the University of Georgia!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Ohio State
4 Alabama
5 Penn State
6 Tennessee
7 Minnesota
8 Western Kentucky
9 Florida State
10 Utah
11 Oregon
12 Illinois
13 Tulane
14 Air Force
15 Texas
16 Washington
17 Boise State
18 Kansas State
19 Mississippi
20 Troy
21 Oregon State
22 Fresno State
23 LSU
24 James Madison
25 South Alabama

 

2022 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2022 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2