Georgia Southern Fires Head Football Coach Chad Lunsford

Yesterday, the Georgia Southern Eagles fired their head football coach Chad Lunsford after a 1-3 start to the 2021 season.  Here is a look at the Georgia Southern Eagles football program since 2014 (the first year the Eagles were in the Football Bowl Subdivision using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans the last two seasons under head coach Willie Fritz (2014-2015), head coach Tyson Summers (2016-2017), and Chad Lunsford (2018-2021*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Georgia Southern Eagles football program during head coach Lunsford's tenure (starting with the 2018 season) based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Chad Lunsford [contract]

2018

Georgia Southern finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #36 ranked Eastern Michigan (36-31) to finish 10-3 overall.  The Eagles played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Eagles' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Georgia Southern's best regular season victory was against #6 ranked Appalachian State (34-14) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Louisiana-Monroe (25-44).  Georgia Southern was the #31 ranked team overall, with the #42 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2019 

Georgia Southern finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by the #45 ranked Liberty by a score of (16-23) to finished the season at 7-6 overall.  The Eagles played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Georgia Southern's best regular season victory was against #11 ranked Appalachian State (24-21) and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Arkansas State (33-38).  Georgia Southern was the #58 ranked team overall, with the #90 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2020

Georgia Southern finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 7-5, where they were bowl eligible and defeated #104 ranked Louisiana Tech (38-3) to finish at 8-5 overall.  The Eagles played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Georgia Southern's best regular season victory was against #50 ranked Troy (20-13) and their worst loss was to #49 ranked Georgia State.  Georgia Southern was the #19 ranked team overall, with the #25 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2021*

After a 1-3 start to the 2021 season Lunsford is no longer with the football program.  Georgia Southern played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Georgia Southern only wins was against FCS Gardener-Webb (30-25) and their current worst loss was to #85 ranked Florida Atlantic (6-38).  Georgia Southern is currently the #127 ranked team overall, with the #122 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2021 FBS Head Coaching Changes

Randy Edsall and Connecticut

Clay Helton and Southern California

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

 Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the University of Georgia Bulldogs.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Georgia
2	Coastal Carolina
3	Auburn
4	Michigan
5	Arkansas
6	Mississippi
7	Maryland
8	Oklahoma
9	Oregon
10	Iowa State
11	Rutgers
12	Arizona State
13	Ohio State
14	Iowa
15	Baylor
16	Pittsburgh
17	Liberty
18	San Diego State
19	Michigan State
20	UTSA
21	Florida
22	Texas
23	Fresno State
24	Alabama
25	Purdue

Prior 2021 Week Rankings

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

 

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Fresno State University Bulldogs.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Fresno State
2	Baylor
3	Arkansas
4	Maryland
5	Georgia
6	SMU
7	Oklahoma
8	Auburn
9	Michigan
10	Mississippi
11	Michigan State
12	Tennessee
13	Pittsburgh
14	UTSA
15	Mississippi State
16	Liberty
17	UCF
18	Oregon State
19	Coastal Carolina
20	Texas A&M
21	Wyoming
22	Rutgers
23	Clemson
24	Penn State
25	Texas

Prior 2021 Week Rankings 

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Southern California Fires Head Football Coach Clay Helton

Yesterday, head football coach Clay Helton was fired from his job at Southern California.  The Trojans were 40-27 during Helton's tenure as head football coach. 

Here is a look at the Southern California Trojans football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans the last two seasons under head coach Pete Carroll (2008-2010), head coach Lane Kiffen (2010-2013), head coach Steve Sarkisian (2014-2015), and Clay Helton (2016-2021*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Southern California Trojans football program during head coach Helton's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Clay Helton (2016 - 2021*)

2016

USC finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #12 ranked Penn State to finish at 10-3 overall.  The Trojans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Trojans' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS for that season.  USC's best regular season victory was against #2 ranked Washington (26-13) and their worst loss was to #57 ranked Stanford (10-27).  USC was the #28 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2017

USC finished the regular season at 11-2, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #2 ranked Ohio State by a score of (7-24) to finish at 11-3 overall.  The Trojans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) for that season.  USC's best regular season victory was against #30 ranked Utah (28-27) and their worst loss was to #46 ranked Washington State (27-30).  USC was the #24 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2018

USC finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible.  The Trojans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  USC's best regular season victory was against #33 ranked Washington State (39-36) and their worst loss was to #103 ranked UCLA (27-34).  USC was the #77 ranked team overall, with the #91 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2019 

USC finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by the #21 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes by a score of (24-49) to finished the season at 8-5 overall.  The Trojans played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Trojans' SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  USC's best regular season victory was against #8 ranked Utah (30-23) and their worst loss was to #61 ranked BYU (27-30).  USC was the #52 ranked team overall, with the #29 ranked offense and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2020

USC finished the COVID-19 shortened regular season at 5-1.  The Trojans played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  USC's best regular season victory was against #44 ranked UCLA (43-38) and their only loss was to #59 ranked Oregon.  USC was the #51 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2021

After games of the 2021 season Helton is no longer with the football program.  USC played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  USC defeated #93 ranked San Jose State (30-7) and lost to #108 ranked Stanford (28-42).  USC is currently the #101 ranked team overall, with the #79 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2021 FBS Head Coaching Changes

Randy Edsall and Connecticut

Navy Fires Offensive Coordinator Ivin Jasper

It has been reported that the US Naval Academy has fired their football offensive coordinator this past weekend.  Navy is currently 0-2 this season, and currently has scored the fewest total points in all the FBS.  Navy is currently ranked the #129 (out of 130) offenses in all of the FBS.

Here is a look at the Navy Midshipmen football program since Jasper took over as offensive coordinator in 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model and data from www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent Jasper's firing).  If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

 

As you can see, the bottom fell out with the Navy offense both for all of last year and has worsened during the first two games of this season. 

2021 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Fresno State University Bulldogs (and not because their head coach is a former student of mine).

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Fresno State
2	Auburn
3	Maryland
4	Oklahoma
5	Nebraska
6	Arizona State
7	Alabama
8	Pittsburgh
9	SMU
10	Virginia
11	Georgia
12	Purdue
13	Baylor
14	UTSA
15	Nevada
16	Arkansas
17	Coastal Carolina
18	Michigan State
19	Penn State
20	Marshall
21	San Diego State
22	Wake Forest
23	Liberty
24	Boston College
25	Mississippi

Head Football Coach Randy Edsall Out at Connecticut

A day after head football coach Randy Edsall announced that he would retire at the end of the 2021 season, Connecticut announced that Edsall is no longer with the program.  I will leave it up to you as to whether he retired or was fired.  Either way, Connecticut was 6-31 during Edsall's second tenure at the helm of the Connecticut Huskies football program.

Here is a look at the Connecticut Huskies football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans the last three seasons under head coach Randy Edsall's first time as the Huskies head coach (2008-2010), head coach Paul Pasqualoni (2011-2013), head coach Bob Diaco (2014-2016), and the second time as head coach for Randy Edsall (2017-2021*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Connecticut Huskies football program during head coach Edsall's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Randy Edsall (Original Contract)

2017

Connecticut finished the regular season at 3-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Huskies played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Huskies' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS for that season.  Connecticut's best regular season victory was against #81 ranked Temple (28-24) and their worst loss was to #103 ranked Cincinnati (21-22).  Connecticut was the #117 ranked team overall, with the #83 ranked offense and the #121 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

 

2018

Connecticut finished the regular season at 1-11, and were bowl ineligible.  The Huskies played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Huskies' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS for that season.  Connecticut's only regular season victory was against FCS Rhode Island (56-49) and their worst loss was to #119 ranked East Carolina (21-55).  Connecticut was the #130 ranked team overall (the least productive team), with the #122 ranked offense and the #130 ranked defense (the least productive defense) using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  I wrote about Connecticut's defense halfway through the 2018 season being the worst as well.

 

2019 

Connecticut finished the regular season at 2-10, and were bowl ineligible.  The Huskies played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Huskies' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS for that season.  Connecticut's best regular season victory was against #130 ranked Massachusetts (56-35) and their worst loss was to #106 ranked Houston (17-24).  Connecticut was the #129 ranked team overall (second least productive team), with the #124 ranked offense and the #128 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Connecticut was one of three FBS football programs not to play any games due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2021

After the first week of the 2021 season (but game two for Connecticut) Edsall is no longer with the football program.  Connecticut lost both games while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Jayhawks' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS for that season.  Connecticut's worst loss was to FCS Holy Cross (28-38).  Connecticu was the #129 ranked team overall (or the second least productive teams), with the #122 ranked offense and the #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.