Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Does the English Premier League have a Competitive Balance Problem?

Recently, the Wall Street Journal addressed concerns about the competitiveness of the English Premier League (paywall).  So let's take a look at the numbers.  First, I calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance for the last decade in the English Premier League.

Since the English Premier League has "draws" or ties, the Noll-Scully competitive balance measure must be calculated with the trinomial distribution, which as Richardson shows in his Eastern Economic Journal article, the idealized standard deviation is [(1-p)4n]^(1/2); where n is the number of games played and p is the probability of balanced teams tying.  The number of games played is simple, its 38.  The calculation of p is not as simple.  Here, I have to make a determination.  What I did was to look at the last (approximately) 20% of the season, and calculate the number of games teams that finished 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th in the EPL final table, in which those teams tied.  Then I took the average of those four teams to calculate p.

Using data from [https://datahub.io/sports-data/english-premier-league#resource-season-1819], the Noll-Scully Competitve Balance measure reveals the following:


As you can see, the English Premier League has been becoming less competitive since the 2015/16 season.  Yet, is it a problem?  That is much harder to definitively answer.  Overall, it seems to me that an economic problem exists if the league becoming less competitive results in a significant decrease in attendance, revenues and viewership.  That doesn't seem to be the case, so even with the EPL recently becoming less competitive, it is not a problem.

For those interested in the actual numbers, see below.

Season Noll-Scully
2009/10 3.104
2010/11 2.469
2011/12 3.178
2012/13 3.141
2013/14 3.808
2014/15 3.066
2015/16 2.826
2016/17 3.507
2017/18 3.584
2018/19 4.086