Friday, September 14, 2012

NHL and Competitive Balance

With the National Hockey League (NHL) a little over 24 hours from locking out their employees for the next season, and given that the NHL commissioner has stated that "[w]e've had seven years of incredible competitive balance", I thought that I would look at this statement.  Since the cancelled 2004-05 NHL season, here is the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using the binomial and trinomial distribution for both a sample and the population.


Binomial Distribution


Season Sample
Population
2005-06 1.637
1.610
2006-07 1.600
1.573
2007-08 1.037
1.020
2008-09 1.369
1.346
2009-10 1.274
1.253
2010-11 1.308
1.286
2011-12 1.154
1.135
Trinomial Distribution


Season Sample
Population
2005-06 1.993
1.959
2006-07 1.947
1.915
2007-08 1.258
1.237
2008-09 1.667
1.639
2009-10 1.562
1.536
2010-11 1.601
1.574
2011-12 1.415
1.391

Recently the NHL has been more competitive, thus supporting the NHL commissioner's statement.