NHL Goalie Evaluation at the 2012 All-Star Break

Changing gears (just for a today), let's take a look at NHL goalie evaluation at the All-Star Break.

As a reminder of what we are doing, David Berri and I published a paper in the Journal of Sports Economics in 2010 on how GM's evaluate NHL goalies. Basically what we found was that GM's are good at evaluating current player performance by using Vezina voting for the best NHL goalie and using past player performance in setting NHL salaries. Unfortunately, GM's on the whole are not so good at setting salaries in relation to the goalies future performance.

We named our measure of NHL goalie productivity WAA. WAA the absolute value (since a goal against has a negative effect on team wins) of the marginal value of a goal against divided by two (since each win is worth two standings points) times the number of shots on goal that goalie faces times the difference in the save percentage of the goalie and the average save percentage of all goalies for that season (or in this case up to the All-Star Break).

Running the numbers results in the following top 10 NHL goalies up to the All-Star Break.

Rank	Player	Team	WAA	SV%
1	Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	2.876	0.937
2	Jonathan Quick	LAK	2.839	0.934
3	Tim Thomas	BOS	2.082	0.933
4	Pekka Rinne	NSH	1.777	0.925
5	Brian Elliott	STL	1.676	0.938
6	Tuukka Rask	BOS	1.423	0.938
7	Jimmy Howard	DET	1.327	0.924
8	Mike Smith	PHX	1.135	0.922
9	Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	0.914	0.92
10	Cory Schneider	VAN	0.822	0.927

2011-2012 NCAA FBS & Strength of Schedule

Today, let's take a look at conference strength of schedule in 2011-12 season. In a previous post I go through how I measure a team's strength of schedule for a season, and I am using that same measure for each team. I am also including all the bowl games from last season as well. Since I am going to present a conference strength of schedule, I thought that I would explain how I am measuring it - just to be clear.

Conference strength of schedule is measured by taking each team's individual strength of schedule and taking the average of all of those strength of schedules for the team's in their conference. For example, let's suppose the four independent's were a "conference", then for Army, BYU, Navy and Notre Dame I am taking the average of each of the four schools individual strength of schedule measures.

I will also present an average of all the team's strength of schedule, which is 63.13. Why is it not equal to 60.50 - which would be the average of 1 through 120, since there are currently 120 NCAA FBS schools? That is because NCAA FBS teams play teams in the football championship subdivision (FCS) and I do not have a model to rank them, so each FCS school is given a rank of #121 for the season. Given the number of FCS schools on FBS teams schdule, the average for all FBS schools increases to 63.13 from 60.50.

Here are the results - with the Big 12 having the most difficult strength of schedule for the 2011-12 NCAA FBS season.

Conference	SOS
Big12	54.48
SEC	57.38
Big East	58.78
Big10	58.95
Ind	61.04
ACC	61.64
Pac 12	62.64
CUSA	65.91
Mountain West	67.53
MidAmerican	68.43
WAC	68.77
Sun Belt	71.10

2011 NCAA FBS Non-Conference Results

Now that the NCAA FBS bowl season has concluded, let's take a look at how the different NCAA conferences fared when a team in one FBS conference plays against a team in another FBS conference - including the bowl games. How is this done?

I downloaded all the schedule results data from the 2011 NCAA FBS season from www.ncaa.org. It is in an .csv file that you can download and import into a spreadsheet. After calculating each games result as a win or loss, and after listing each team conference and each teams opponent's conference including non-FBS or FCS conference teams (for each game), then I sorted the data to find all the non-conference games by each of the 11 conferences (the 11th being the four independent teams and listing them as a conference). Once that is completed, for each conference I listed out the non-conference games and calculated out their winning percent by the other conferences (and FCS) along with their winning percentage for BCS conferences.

To begin with, let's see how each of the 11 FBS conferences fared against all non-conference games.

ACC

The ACC was 21-22 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.488 winning percentage, and was 12-1 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the ACC was 9-16 for a 0.360 winning percentage. By conference the ACC's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
Big 10 = 0.500 (2-2)
Big 12 = 0.250 (1-3)
Big East = 0.500 (4-4)
CUSA = 0.667 (4-2)
Independent = 0.250 (1-3)
Mid American = 0.500 (1-1)
Mountain West = (no non-conference games were played)
Pac 12 = 0.000 (0-2)
SEC = 0.286 (2-5)
Sun Belt = 1.000 (5-0)
WAC = 1.000 (1-0)

Big 10

The Big 10 conference was 30-18 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.625 winning percentage, and was 9-1 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Big 10 conference was 9-10 for a 0.474 winning percentage. By conference the Big 10's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.500 (2-2)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-3)
Big East = 1.000 (1-0)
CUSA = 0.333 (1-2)
Independent = 0.250 (1-3)
Mid American = 0.917 (11-1)
Mountain West = 1.000 (3-0)
Pac 12 = 0.714 (5-2)
SEC = 0.250 (1-3)
Sun Belt = 0.800 (4-1)
WAC = 0.500 (1-1)

Big 12

The Big 12 conference was 27-5 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.844 winning percentage, and was 6-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Big 12 conference was 12-5 for a 0.706 winning percentage. By conference the Big 12's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.750 (3-1)
Big 10 = 1.000 (3-0)
Big East = 0.500 (1-1)
CUSA = 1.000 (5-0)
Independent = 1.000 (1-0)
Mid American = 1.000 (4-0)
Mountain West = 1.000 (2-0)
Pac 12 = 0.833 (5-1)
SEC = 0.000 (0-2)
Sun Belt = 1.000 (1-0)
WAC = 1.000 (2-0)

Big East

The Big East conference was 21-16 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.568 winning percentage, and was 8-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Big East conference was 7-11 for a 0.389 winning percentage. By conference the Big East's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.500 (4-4)
Big 10 = 0.000 (0-1)
Big 12 = 0.500 (1-1)
CUSA = 0.600 (3-2)
Independent = 0.750 (3-1)
Mid American = 0.889 (8-1)
Mountain West = (no non-conference games were played)
Pac 12 = 0.000 (0-2)
SEC = 0.400 (2-3)
Sun Belt = 0.000 (0-1)
WAC = (no non-conference games were played)

Conference USA (CUSA)

The CUSA conference was 23-28 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.451 winning percentage, and was 7-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the CUSA conference was 5-12 for a 0.294 winning percentage. By conference the CUSA's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.333 (2-4)
Big 10 = 0.667 (2-1)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-5)
Big East = 0.400 (2-3)
Independent = 0.333 (2-4)
Mid American = 0.556 (5-4)
Mountain West = 0.667 (2-1)
Pac 12 = 1.000 (1-0)
SEC = 0.000 (0-2)
Sun Belt = 0.500 (3-3)
WAC = 0.800 (4-1)

Independent's

The Independents (Army, BYU, Navy and Notre Dame) were 21-22 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.488 winning percentage, and was 3-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Independent's were 8-8 for a 0.500 winning percentage. By conference the Independent's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.750 (3-1)
Big 10 = 0.750 (3-1)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-1)
Big East = 0.250 (1-3)
CUSA = 0.667 (4-2)
Mid American = 0.200 (1-4)
Mountain West = 0.200 (1-4)
Pac 12 = 0.250 (1-3)
SEC = 0.333 (1-2)
Sun Belt = 1.000 (1-0)
WAC = 0.833 (5-1)

Mid American Conference

The Mid American Conference was 24-44 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.353 winning percentage, and was 12-1 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Mid American Conference was 2-23 for a 0.080 winning percentage. By conference the Mid American's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.500 (1-1)
Big 10 = 0.083 (1-11)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-4)
Big East = 0.111 (1-8)
CUSA = 0.444 (4-5)
Independent = 0.800 (4-1)
Mountain West = 0.500 (2-2)
Pac 12 = (no non-conference games were played)
SEC = 0.000 (0-7)
Sun Belt = 0.615 (8-5)
WAC = 1.000 (3-0)

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West Conference was 17-19 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.472 winning percentage, and was 7-2 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Mountain West Conference was 3-8 for a 0.273 winning percentage. By conference the Mountain West's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = (no non-conference games were played)
Big 10 = 0.000 (0-3)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-2)
Big East = (no non-conference games were played)
CUSA = 0.333 (1-2)
Independent = 0.800 (4-1)
Mid American = 0.500 (2-2)
Pac 12 = 0.500 (2-2)
SEC = 0.500 (1-1)
Sun Belt = 0.500 (1-1)
WAC = 0.545 (6-5)

Pac 12 Conference

The Pac 12 Conference was 18-16 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.529 winning percentage, and was 7-1 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Pac 12 Conference was 7-13 for a 0.350 winning percentage. By conference the Pac 12's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 1.000 (2-0)
Big 10 = 0.286 (2-5)
Big 12 = 0.167 (1-5)
Big East = 1.000 (2-0)
CUSA = 0.000 (0-1)
Independent = 0.750 (3-1)
Mid American = (no non-conference games were played)
Mountain West = 0.500 (2-2)
SEC = 0.000 (0-1)
Sun Belt = 1.000 (1-0)
WAC = 0.833 (5-1)

Southeastern Conference

The Southeastern Conference was 35-8 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.814 winning percentage, and was 12-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Southeastern Conference was 12-4 for a 0.750 winning percentage. By conference the SEC's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.714 (5-2)
Big 10 = 0.750 (3-1)
Big 12 = 1.000 (2-0)
Big East = 0.600 (3-2)
CUSA = 1.000 (2-0)
Independent = 0.667 (2-1)
Mid American = 1.000 (7-0)
Mountain West = 0.500 (1-1)
Pac 12 = 1.000 (1-0)
Sun Belt = 1.000 (5-0)
WAC = 0.800 (4-1)

Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt Conference was 11-29 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.275 winning percentage, and was 3-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Sun Belt Conference was 2-12 for a 0.143 winning percentage. By conference the Sun Belt's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.000 (0-5)
Big 10 = 0.200 (1-4)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-1)
Big East = 1.000 (1-0)
CUSA = 0.500 (3-3)
Independent = 0.000 (0-1)
Mid American = 0.385 (5-8)
Mountain West = 0.500 (1-1)
Pac 12 = 0.000 (0-1)
SEC = 0.000 (0-5)
WAC = (no non-conference games were played)

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

The Western Athletic Conference was 10-31 against non-conference FBS opponents last season for a 0.244 winning percentage, and was 5-0 against FCS opponents last year. For BCS non-conference opponents the Western Athletic Conference was 7-15 for a 0.318 winning percentage. By conference the WAC's winning percentage (won-lost) was:
ACC = 0.000 (0-1)
Big 10 = 0.500 (1-1)
Big 12 = 0.000 (0-2)
Big East = (no non-conference games were played)
CUSA = 0.200 (1-4)
Independent = 0.167 (1-5)
Mid American = 0.000 (0-3)
Mountain West = 0.455 (5-6)
Pac 12 = 0.167 (1-5)
SEC = 0.200 (1-4)
Sun Belt = (no non-conference games were played)

Oklahoma State Extend Gundy's Contract

Oklahoma State's head football coach Mike Gundy received a contract extension a few weeks ago, so let's take a look at Oklahoma State's production on the field over the last two years.

In 2010, the Cowboys were 11-2 playing against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 60.00, which is slightly more difficult than the average strength of schedule for the 2010 NCAA FBS season. The Cowboys were the #8 ranked team overall with the #4 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense.

At the end of this season the Oklahoma State Cowboys were 12-1 playing against a SOS of 52.92 and finished as the #5 ranked team overall, the #3 most productive offense and the #63 most productive defense.

Notre Dame Extends Head Coaches Contract

Notre Dame head football coach Brian Kelly received a two year contract extension through 2016. Let's take a look at the Fighting Irish over the last two years of head football coach Kelly's tenure.

At the end of this season, Notre Dame was 8-5 (bowl loss to Florida State). Notre Dame played against a strength of schedule (SOS) equal to 47.00 - which is significantly more difficult than the average NCAA FBS team. Notre Dame finished the season with the #51 ranked team, the #50 ranked defense and the #46 ranked offense.

In 2010, Notre Dame also finished 8-5 against a SOS 44.16 (again much more difficult than on average) and finished the season ranked #46 with the #45 most productive offense and the #40 most productive defense.

Virginia Extends Mike London's Contract

The University of Virginia has extended the contract of head football coach Mike London. So let's take a look at how Virginia has performed over the two years of London's tenure at Virginia.

At the end of the season the Virginia Cavaliers were 8-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 65.05. Virginia's best win was against #23 ranked Florida State, and their worst loss was against #79 ranked Auburn (bowl loss). The Cavaliers are the #60 ranked team overall, with the #63 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense.

In 2010 Virginia finished 4-8 (two of those wins against FCS teams). Virginia's SOS was 64.58, and their best wins was over #25 Miami (Florida) and their worst loss was against #111 Duke. Virginia finished with the #75 ranked team overall, the #77 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense.

2011 Final NCAA FBS Production Ranking

The NCAA FBS season is finally over, so I ran the final model and here are the top 25 teams in terms of production. You will notice that Houston is the #1 team and this is primarily due to their #1 ranked offense, that put up big numbers against Penn State's defense in their bowl game. Notice also that Alabama and LSU are next, which is not surprising.

Over the next few weeks, I hope to come back to the 2011 NCAA FBS season and look at strength of schedule along with a few other topics; so keep checking back.

	Team
1	Houston
2	Alabama
3	LSU
4	Wisconsin
5	Oklahoma State
6	Oregon
7	Southern Mississippi
8	Michigan State
9	Georgia
10	Boise State
11	South Carolina
12	West Virginia
13	Oklahoma
14	Northern Illinois
15	Stanford
16	Michigan
17	Cincinnati
18	Baylor
19	Virginia Tech
20	Arkansas State
21	South Florida
22	Missouri
23	Florida State
24	TCU
25	Ohio

2011-2012 NCAA FBS Bowl Results

Congratulations to the University of Alabama Crimson Tide on their victory last night over LSU!

Now that all 35 NCAA FBS bowl games have been played, let's take a look at how well the model performed this season, including the popular version of "confidence points" predictions by ESPN experts Robert Smith, Todd McShea and Ed Cunningham's results.

The model went 24-11 this year, which is about 69%; not great but not bad. When I put together the "confidence points" method, the model ends up with 469 points out of a possible 630 for a 74%, which is better than either of the three ESPN expert predictions.

2012 NCAA FBS National Championship Game

Tonight is the last of the 35 bowls this season and is the "national championship" game as voted by a select number of NCAA FBS coaches, a long list of voters in the Harris Poll and a few "computer" models. The game tonight is a rematch of the game earlier this season between the University of Alabama and Louisiana State University, both of the SEC. So let's take a look at the basic numbers from the NCAA FBS production model to get a fix on tonight's game.

This season the Louisiana State University Tigers are 13-0 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 58.54. LSU's best win was against currently ranked #1 Alabama, and they do not have a worst loss. To date, the Tigers are the #3 ranked team overall, with the #7 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 11-1 with a strength of schedule equal to 61.00. Alabama's best win was against currently ranked #27 Arkansas, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #3 LSU. To date, the Crimson Tide are the #1 ranked team overall, with the #19 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Alabama better than LSU, and hence expect Alabama to win the BCS National Championship Bowl today.

2012 GoDaddy Bowl

Today we have the Arkansas State Red Wolves out of the SunBelt conference facing the Northern Illinois University Huskies out of the Mid-American Conference in the GoDaddy.com Bowl.

This season the Arkansas State Red Wolves are 10-2 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 83.75. Arkansas State's best win was against currently ranked #45 FIU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #48 Illinois. To date, the Red Wolves are the #20 ranked team overall, with the #41 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense.

The Northern Illinois Huskies are 10-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 73.08. Northern Illinois's best win was against currently ranked #17 Toledo, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #120 Kansas (the worst team in the football bowl subdivision). To date, the Huskies are the #50 ranked team overall, with the #10 ranked offense and the #103 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Arkansas State better than Northern Illinois, and hence expect Arkansas State to win the GoDaddy.com Bowl today.

2012 Compass Bowl

In today's Compass Bowl we have the Southern Methodist University (SMU) Mustangs facing the Pittsburgh Panthers of the Big East conference.

This season the SMU Mustangs are 7-5 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 62.33. SMU's best win was against currently ranked #12 TCU, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #49 Navy. To date, the Mustangs are the #60 ranked team overall, with the #72 ranked offense and the #43 ranked defense.

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 61.42. Pittsburgh's best win was against currently ranked #47 South Florida, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #69 Rutgers. To date, the Panthers are the #83 ranked team overall, with the #110 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks SMU better than Pitt, and hence expect SMU to win the Compass Bowl today.

2012 Cotton Bowl

The Cotton Bowl pits Kansas State Wildcats of the Big 12 against Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC.

This season the Kansas State Wildcats are 10-2 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 57.83. Kansas State's best win was against currently ranked #22 Missouri, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #16 Oklahoma. To date, the Wildcats are the #51 ranked team overall, with the #57 ranked offense and the #35 ranked defense.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 10-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 62.50. Arkansas's best win was against currently ranked #7 South Carolina, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #3 LSU (yes, there worst loss was to LSU - the other was to #1 Alabama. To date, the Razorbacks are the #27 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Arkansas better than Kansas State, and hence expect Arkansas to win the Cotton Bowl today.

2012 Orange Bowl

In today's Orange Bowl we have the West Virginia Mountaineers out of the Big East facing the Clemson Tigers out of the ACC.

This season the West Virginia Mountaineers are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 67.33. West Virginia's best win was against currently ranked #19 Cincinnati, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #82 Syracuse. To date, the Mountaineers are the #25 ranked team overall, with the #33 ranked offense and the #29 ranked defense.

The Clemson Tigers are 10-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 51.77. Clemson 's best win was against currently ranked #9 Florida State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #24 North Carolina State. To date, the Tigers are the #68 ranked team overall, with the #46 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks West Virginia better than Clemson, and hence expect West Virginia to win the Orange Bowl today.

2012 Sugar Bowl

The Sugar Bowl has the Michigan Wolverines of the Big 10 conference facing the Virginia Tech Hokies of the ACC.

This season the Michigan Wolverines are 10-2 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.75. Michigan's best win was against currently ranked #23 San Diego State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #54 Iowa. To date, the Wolverines are the #14 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are 11-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 63.69. Virginia Tech's best win was against currently ranked #11 Georgia Tech, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #68 Clemson (twice). To date, the Hokies are the #33 ranked team overall, with the #35 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Michigan better than Virginia Tech, and hence expect Michigan to win the Sugar Bowl today.

2012 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl has one of the most anticipated game with the Stanford Cardinal of the Pac 12 conference facing the Oklahoma State Cowboys of the Big 12 conference.

This season the Stanford Cardinal are 11-1 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 73.08. Standford's best win was against currently ranked #21 USC, and their only loss was against currently ranked #8 Oregon. To date, the Cardinal is the #10 ranked team overall, with the #8 ranked offense and the #47 ranked defense.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 11-1 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.58. Oklahoma State's best win was against currently ranked #16 Oklahoma, and their only loss was against currently ranked #99 Iowa State. To date, the Cowboys are the #2 ranked team overall, with the #2 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Oklahoma State better than Stanford, and hence expect Oklahoma State to win the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl today.

2012 Rose Bowl

The Rose Bowl (called the "Grandaddy of them all" mainly due to the size of its payout) pitting the traditional Big 10 and Pac 10 er, Pac 12 champions, and this year we have the Wisconsin Badgers of the Big 10 (with 12 schools) and the Oregon Ducks of the Pac 12. Given the recent announcement that the Big 10 and the Pac 12 are extending their inter-conference relationship both on the field with more inter conference scheduling and off the field with inter conference academic opportunities, this game is the start of this innovative way of extending each of the two brands and also increasing each conferences revenues.

This season the Wisconsin Badgers are 11-2 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 69.77. Wisconsin's best win was against currently ranked #15 Michigan State in the Big 10 Conference Championship game, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #56 Ohio State. To date, the Badgers are the #5 ranked team overall, with the #3 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense.

The Oregon Ducks are 11-2 with a strength of schedule equal to 65.69. Oregon's best win was against currently ranked #10 Stanford, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #21 USC. To date, the Ducks are the #8 ranked team overall, with the #5 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Wisconsin better than Oregon, and hence expect Wisconsin to win the Rose Bowl today.

2012 Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

The Gator Bowl pits the University of Florida Gators of the SEC against the Ohio State University Buckeyes of the Big 10 conference. According to the NCAA FBS production model this should be a very competitive and close game. Let's take a look at the numbers.

This season the Florida Gators are 6-6 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 54.67. Florida's best win was against currently ranked #36 Vanderbilt, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #80 Auburn. To date, the Gators are the #53 ranked team overall, with the #?? ranked offense and the #?? ranked defense.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 6-6 with a strength of schedule equal to 55.92. Ohio State's best win was against currently ranked #5 Wisconsin, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #90 Purdue. To date, the Buckeyes are the #56 ranked team overall, with the #69 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Florida better than Ohio State, and hence expect Florida to win the Gator Bowl today.

2012 Capital One Bowl

The Capital One Bowl has the South Carolina Gamecocks of the Southeastern conference against the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the Big 10 conference.

This season the South Carolina Gamecocks are 10-2 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 63.33. South Carolina's best win was against currently ranked #28 Georgia, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #80 Auburn. To date, the Gamecocks are the #7 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 9-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 59.58. Nebraska's best win was against currently ranked #15 Michigan State, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #77 Northwestern. To date, the Cornhuskers are the #57 ranked team overall, with the #48 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks South Carolina better than Nebraska, and hence expect South Carolina to win the Capital One Bowl today.

2012 Outback Bowl

The Outback Bowl pits Michigan State Spartans from the Big 10 conference against the Georgia Bulldogs from the Southeastern conference. Both teams are the conference championship runners-up.

This season the Michigan State Spartans are 10-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 64.85. Michigan State's best win was against currently ranked #5 Wisconsin, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #58 Notre Dame. To date, the Spartans are the #15 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense.

The Georgia Bullogs are 10-3 with a strength of schedule equal to 56.77. Georgia's best win was against currently ranked #11 Georgia Tech, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #7 South Carolina. To date, the Bulldogs are the #28 ranked team overall, with the #58 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense. Note: Georgia has three losses (#3 LSU, #6 Boise State and #7 South Carolina - wow!)

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Michigan State better than Georgia, and hence expect Michigan State to win the Outback Bowl today.

2012 TicketCity Bowl

In today's TicketCity Bowl, we have the Penn State Nittany Lions out of the Big 10 against the Houston Cougars from Conference USA.

This season the Penn State Nittany Lions are 9-3 and the NCAA FBS production model's measure of their strength of schedule (SOS) was equal to 59.58. Penn State's best win was against currently ranked #13 Temple, and their worst loss was against currently ranked #57 Nebraska. To date, the Nittany Lions are the #30 ranked team overall, with the #80 ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense.

The Houston Cougars are 12-1 with a strength of schedule equal to 80.85. Houston's best win was against currently ranked #37 Tulsa, and their only loss was against currently ranked #32 Southern Mississippi. To date, the Cougars are the #4 ranked team overall, with the #1 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense.

The NCAA FBS production model ranks Houston better than Penn State, and hence expect Houston to win the TicketCity Bowl today.