Thursday, January 22, 2026

Best NCAA FBS Team since 2008 (excluding 2020) is Indiana University in 2025

Now that the 2025 NCAA FBS season has finished, I was curious as to how productive teams have been from 2008 (the first season that I have all the data I use to estimate NCAA FBS team production) to 2025.    The last time I evaluated the league was 2019, so it seems like this is a good time to update the analysis.

How did I make these calculations: 

1. I created a model of NCAA FBS team production, (here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model).

2. I downloaded the NCAA FBS team offense and defense data from www.cfbstats.com.

3. I made a few decisions:  

one, was not to include the 2020 COVID-19 season as some teams did not play at all and most teams played a significantly reduced schedule of games;

two, I estimated both the offense and defense models as a panel (i.e. both cross-sectional and time series)

three, I clustered the standard errors of the model by conference, since most teams play the majority of their games against teams from their conference.

4. Then I ranked them by the team with this highest overall team production (i.e. offense production - defense production).  The ranking is below for the top 25 most productive teams since 2008 (excluding 2020). 

Name
Season
Indiana
2025
Clemson
2019
Florida State
2013
Clemson
2018
Ohio State
2019
Georgia
2021
Michigan
2023
Florida
2008
LSU
2019
Georgia
2022
Oregon
2023
Alabama
2016
Ohio State
2025
Houston
2011
Boise State
2010
Ohio State
2024
Texas Tech
2025
Alabama
2018
Indiana
2024
Alabama
2012
Alabama
2017
Baylor
2013
TCU
2010
Alabama
2019
Alabama
2011

Posted by at 9:33 AM

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

2025 NCAA FBS Top 25 Final Ranking

Congrats to the Indiana University Hoosiers on winning the National Championship in FBS Football!  

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model has the Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Texas Tech
3 Ohio State
4 Vanderbilt
5 Connecticut
6 Notre Dame
7 Oregon
8 Kansas State
9 James Madison
10 Boise State
11 Miami (Florida)
12 Toledo
13 Texas State
14 UCF
15 North Texas
16 Utah
17 Utah State
18 Arizona State
19 Old Dominion
20 Washington
21 Arizona
22 Mississippi
23 Wyoming
24 Georgia
25 Oklahoma

2025 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings


Posted by at 11:29 AM

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Kyle Whittingham Retires from Utah and then is Hired at Michigan

Earlier this month Kyle Whittingham retired as head football coach at Utah after 21 seasons at the helm of the Utes, and then yesterday was hired as the head football coach at Michigan.  The Utah Utes were 163-73 during Whittingham's tenure with the Utes.  Following the production rank chart below is a short overview of the Utah Utes football program during his tenure as head football coach based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Kyle Whittingham [2005-2025]

2008
The Utes finished the regular season at 12-0 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #11 ranked Alabama by a score of (31-17) in their post-season bowl game to finish at 13-0 overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the average SOS for the "league". Utah's best regular season win was against #6 ranked TCU by a score of (13-10) and they did not lose any games this season.  Utah was the #8 ranked team overall, with the #19 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2009
The Utes finished the regular season at 9-3 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #35 ranked California by a score of (37-27) making the Utes finish the season with a 10-3 win-loss record overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #12 ranked Air Force by a score of (23-16) and their worst regular season loss was to #18 ranked BYU by a score of (23-26).  Utah was the #23 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2010
The Utes finished the regular season at 10-2 making them bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #1 ranked Boise State by a score of (3-26) in their post-season bowl game to finish at 10-3 overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #24 ranked San Diego State by a score of (38-34) and their worst regular season loss was to #39 ranked Notre Dame by a score of (3-28).  Utah was the #22 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2011
The Utes finished the regular season at 7-5 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #17 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (30-27) finishing with an 8-5 win-loss record overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #28 ranked BYU by a score of (54-10) and their worst regular season loss was to #116 ranked Colorado by a score of (14-17).  Utah was the #48 ranked team overall, with the #71 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2012
The Utes finished the regular season at 5-7 making them post-season bowl ineligible. The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best win was against #22 ranked BYU by a score of (24-21) and their worst regular season loss was to #61 ranked Arizona by a score of (24-34).  Utah was the #80 ranked team overall, with the #99 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2013
The Utes finished the regular season at 5-7 making them post-season bowl ineligible.  The Utes played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was between one standard and two standard deviations lower than the average SOS for the "league". Utah's best regular season win was against #23 ranked Utah State by a score of (30-26) and their worst regular season loss was to #81 ranked Washington State by a score of (37-49).  Utah was the #78 ranked team overall, with the #90 ranked offense and the #56 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2014
The Utes finished the regular season at 8-4 making them bowl eligible where they defeated #39 ranked Colorado State by a score of (45-20) to finish the season with a won-loss record of 9-4.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #20 ranked Stanford by a score of (20-17) and their worst regular season loss was to #96 ranked Washington State by a score of (27-28).  Utah was the #62 ranked team overall, with the #68 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Utes finished the regular season at 9-3 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #42 ranked BYU by a score of (35-28) in their post-season bowl game to finish at 10-3 overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #24 ranked Michigan by a score of (24-17) and their worst regular season loss was to #70 ranked Arizona by a score of (30-37).  Utah was the #49 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Utes finished the regular season at 8-4 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #64 ranked Indiana by a score of (26-24) making the Utes 9-4 overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #28 ranked Southern California by a score of (31-27) and their worst regular season loss was to #105 ranked Oregon by a score of (28-30).  Utah was the #43 ranked team overall, with the #49 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2017
The Utes finished the regular season at 7-5 and were post-season bowl eligible, where they defeated #76 ranked West Virginia by a score of (30-14) to finish the season at 8-5 overall. The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best win was against #46 ranked Washington State by a score of (33-25) and their worst regular season loss was to #83 ranked Arizona State by a score of (10-30).  Utah was the #30 ranked team overall, with the #56 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2018 Pac 12 Runner-Up
The Utes finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Pac 12 Conference championship game where they were defeated by #12 ranked Washington by a score of (3-10).  The Utes were also post-season bowl eligible where they were defeated by #84 ranked Northwestern by a score of (20-31) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 9-5.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #35 ranked Oregon by a score of (32-25) and their worst regular season loss was to #55 ranked Arizona State by a score of (20-38).  Utah was the #30 ranked team overall, with the #50 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2019 Pac 12 Runner-Up
The Utes finished the regular season at 11-1 and played in the Pac 12 Conference championship game where they were defeated by #5 ranked Oregon by a score of (15-37)!  The Utes were also post-season bowl eligible where they were defeated by #59 ranked Texas by a score of (10-38) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 11-3.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #31 ranked Washington by a score of (33-28) and their only regular season loss was to #52 ranked Southern California by a score of (23-30).  Utah was the #8 ranked team overall, with the #14 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
The Utes finished the COVID-19 regular season at 3-2 palying against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was between one standard and two standard deviations higher than the average SOS for the "league". Utah's best regular season win was against #75 ranked Colorado by a score of (38-21) and their worst regular season loss was to #73 ranked Washington by a score of (21-24).  Utah was the #62 ranked team overall, with the #106 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021 Pac 12 Champions
The Utes finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Pac 12 Conference championship game where they defeated #38 ranked Oregon by a score of (38-10)!  The Utes were also post-season bowl eligible but were defeated by #2 ranked Ohio State by a score of (45-48) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 10-4.  The Utes played against a “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #38 ranked Oregon by a score of (38-7) and their worst regular season loss was to #65 ranked Oregon State by a score of (34-42).  Utah was the #9 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 Pac 12 Champions
The Utes finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Pac 12 Conference championship game where they defeated #27 ranked Southern California by a score of (47-24)!  The Utes were also post-season bowl eligible where they were defeated by #5 ranked Penn State by a score of (21-35) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 10-4. The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best win was against #21 ranked Oregon State by a score of (42-16) and their worst regular season loss was to #59 ranked Florida by a score of (26-29).  Utah was the #10 ranked team overall, with the #6 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2023
The Utes finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible where they were defeated by #76 ranked Northwestern by a score of (7-14) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 8-5 overall.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #25 ranked UCLA by a score of (14-7) and their worst regular season loss was to #39 ranked Oregon State by a score of (7-21). Utah was the #61 ranked team overall, with the #92 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
The Utes finished the regular season at 5-7 and were post-season bowl game ineligible.  The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Utah's best regular season win was against #42 ranked Baylor by a score of (23-12) and their worst regular season loss was to #118 ranked Houston by a score of (14-17).  Utah was the #78 ranked team overall, with the #117 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2025
The Utes were 10-2 at the time of Whittingham's departure. The Utes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) to this point in the season. Utah's best win was against #54 ranked Kansas State and their worst regular season loss was to #16 ranked BYU by a score of (21-24).  Utah was the #10 ranked team overall, with the #7 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
Posted by at 9:20 AM

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Ohio Fired Head Football Coach Brian Smith

Brian Smith has been fired as head football coach at Ohio University after only one season at the helm of the Bobcats.  Here is a look at the Ohio Bobcats football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model) and covers all but the first three seasons under Frank Solich (2008-2020), Tim Albin (2021-2024), and Brian Smith (2025).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Ohio Bobcats football program during head coach Smith's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Brian Smith [2025]

2025 
The Bobcats finish the regular season at 8-4 making them bowl eligible at the time of Smith's firing. The Bobcats played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the SOS for Ohio was between one and two standard deviations higher than the average for the "league". At the time of Smith's firing, Ohio's best win was against currently ranked #47 Miami (OH) by a score of (24-20) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #128 Ball State by a score of (14-20).  Ohio was the #49 ranked team overall, with the #42 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
Posted by at 10:19 AM

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Ryan Beard Departs from Missouri State for Coastal Carolina

Ryan Beard has departed as the head football coach at Missouri State for the same position at Coastal Carolina.  The Missouri State Bears were 7-5 during his brief stay with the program.  Below is a little more information about the Missouri State Bears while he was head football coach.

Ryan Beard [2025]

2025
The Bears were 7-5 at the time of Beard's departure. The Bears played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) to this point in the season. Missouri State's best win was against currently #69 ranked Marshall by a score of (21-20) and their worst loss was to currently #75 ranked Kennesaw State by a score of (34-41).  Missouri State was the #80 ranked team overall, with the #68 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2025 NCAA FBS Head Coach Quits

Jason Candle from Toledo
Posted by at 12:11 PM

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Chris Klieman Retires from Kansas State

Chris Klieman has retired as head football coach at Kansas State.   The Wildcats football program has a win-loss record of 54-27 during his tenure at Kansas State.  Here is a look at the Kansas State Wildcats football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model) and covers the final season under Ron Prince (2008), Bill Snyder (2009-2018), and Chris Klieman (2019-2025).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Kansas State Wildcats football program during head coach Klieman's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Chris Klieman [2019-2025]

2019
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 8-4 making them bowl eligible where they were defeated by #10 ranked Navy by a score of (17-20) to finish with a win-loss record of 8-5.  The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Wildcats SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the average SOS for the "league". Kansas State's best regular season win was against #18 ranked Oklahoma by a score of (48-41) and their worst regular season loss was to #113 ranked West Virginia by a score of (20-24).  Kansas State was the #42 ranked team overall, with the #52 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2020
The Wildcats finished the COVID-19 regular season at 4-6.  The Wildcats played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Wildcats SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower that the average SOS for the "league". Kansas State's best regular season win was against #6 ranked Oklahoma by a score of (38-35) and their worst regular season loss was to #100 ranked Baylor by a score of (31-32).  Kansas State was the #97 ranked team overall, with the #61 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2021
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 7-5 making them bowl eligible where they defeated #90 ranked LSU by a score of (42-20) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 8-5 overall.  The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Kansas State's best regular season win was against #28 ranked Nevada by a score of (38-17) and their worst regular season loss was to #72 ranked Texas by a score of (17-22).  Kansas State was the #33 ranked team overall, with the #70 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 Big 12 Conference Champions
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Big 12 Conference championship game where they defeated #26 ranked TCU by a score of (38-28)!  The Wildcats then played in the FBS Playoff game but were defeated by #4 ranked Alabama by a score of (20-45) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 10-3. The Wildcats played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS). Kansas State's best regular season win was against #46 ranked Baylor by a score of (31-3) and their worst regular season loss was to #26 ranked TCU by a score of (28-38).  Kansas State was the #18 ranked team overall, with the #14 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2023
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 8-4 and were bowl eligible where they were defeated by #52 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (28-19) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 9-4 overall.  The Wildcats played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS). Kansas State's best regular season win was against #10 ranked Troy by a score of (42-13) and their worst regular season loss was to #62 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (21-19). Kansas State was the #17 ranked team overall, with the #16 ranked offense and the #33 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 8-4 and played in their post-season bowl game where they defeated #71 ranked Rutgers by a score of (44-41) to finish the season with a win-loss record of 9-4 overall.  The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Kansas State's best regular season win was against #22 ranked Tulane by a score of (34-27) and their worst regular season loss was to #118 ranked Houston by a score of (19-24).  Kansas State was the #36 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
 
2025
The Wildcats were 6-6 at the time of Klieman's retirement. The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) to this point in the season. Kansas State's best win was against #41 ranked TCU and their worst regular season loss was to #102 ranked Baylor.  Kansas State was the  54 ranked team overall, with the #61 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.
Posted by at 10:42 AM

Monday, December 15, 2025

2025 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has the Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Texas Tech
3 Ohio State
4 Oregon
5 Notre Dame
6 James Madison
7 North Texas
8 Toledo
9 Miami (Florida)
10 Georgia
11 Utah
12 Washington
13 Mississippi
14 Vanderbilt
15 South Florida
16 Arizona
17 Old Dominion
18 Missouri
19 East Carolina
20 BYU
21 Oklahoma
22 USC
23 Tennessee
24 Virginia
25 Connecticut

2025 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Posted by at 9:55 AM
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