2014 NFL Payroll and Performance

With the NFL regular season in the books, let me turn my attention to the relationship between team payrolls and team performance.  As we discuss in our book The Wages of Wins, while there tends to be a positive and statistically significant relationship between relative payroll and team performance, the relationship is not really very large enough to conclude that spending by teams is related to on-field performance.  While the book was published in 2006 (and updated in 2007), I like to try to keep up to date on these topics and thus the reason for this blog post.

So, I downloaded the NFL regular season team standings data and NFL team payroll data to run this analysis for just the 2014 season.  Before I present the results, I want to discuss the payroll data.  Using the link above you can see that I am using "cash" and not there salary cap option.  The reason is that I want to focus on actual spending by the team on the players as opposed to how money is attributed to payroll regulations.  For those interested in doing this on there own, here is a step-by-step guide to payroll and performance analysis in Microsoft Excel.

So for the 2014 NFL regular season team payroll and performance is positive and statistically significant, but the amount that payroll explains team performance is about 25%.  Meaning that there is 75% unexplained.  If I wanted to know why teams wins, using only payroll seems to be a limited resource.

NFL Competitive Balance 2014

Now that the NFL regular season is wrapped up, it is time to take a look at how competitively balanced the NFL was last season.  In order to do this, I am going to look at the NFL season statistically as a sample and as a population - mainly for comparison purposes.  Additionally, I will take a look at the conferences separately in terms of competitive balance.  The data comes from profootball-reference.com.

There are a lot of ways to measure competitive balance, and I have chosen to use a simple measure called the Noll-Scully Competitive balance measure.  By competitive balance we are looking at how well a league's standings are in relation to a league where wins and losses are determined randomly.  Here is a step-by-step guide if you want to calculate this on your own.  As a reference, here is the Noll-Scully using a sample or a population for the NFL from 1981 to 2012.

For the NFL in 2014 the Noll-Scully was 1.562 (population) and 1.587 (sample).  If you click on the link in the last sentence above, you will notice that the NFL's competitive balance for this past season is very similar to recent seasons. 

Since the 2000 NFL season, competitive balance in the NFL has been fairly stable as shown below:

 

 

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 16

With only one game this past weekend, it may not matter much whether this game is included in the overall dataset, but I thought that I would be through as I have been in the past so I have included the latest rankings after the Army-Navy game.  So using the data from cfbstats.com here is the last regular season ranking for 2014.  As you can see the ranking is similar to the previous week's ranking, with Oregon still the most productive team in all of college football.  So here is the final regular season top 25 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Rank	Team
1	Oregon
2	Marshall
3	TCU
4	Baylor
5	Ohio State
6	Michigan State
7	Alabama
8	Georgia
9	Louisiana Tech
10	Boise State
11	Mississippi State
12	Georgia Southern
13	Georgia Tech
14	Northern Illinois
15	Wisconsin
16	East Carolina
17	Mississippi
18	Memphis
19	Florida State
20	BYU
21	Arizona
22	Cincinnati
23	Oklahoma
24	USC
25	Western Kentucky

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 15
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 14
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 15

The college football regular season has now finished week 15.  As you can see the Oregon Ducks are the most productive team in all of college football using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.

Of the top 4, the model only has one of those chosen by the College Football Playoff committee - Oregon.  Ohio State is #5, Alabama is #7 and Florida State is #19 in terms of overall productivity.

Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Oregon
2	Marshall
3	TCU
4	Baylor
5	Ohio State
6	Michigan State
7	Alabama
8	Georgia
9	Louisiana Tech
10	Boise State
11	Mississippi State
12	Georgia Southern
13	Georgia Tech
14	Northern Illinois
15	Mississippi
16	Wisconsin
17	East Carolina
18	Memphis
19	Florida State
20	BYU
21	Arizona
22	Cincinnati
23	Oklahoma
24	USC
25	Western Kentucky

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 14
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Jim McElwain Departs Colorado State for Florida

Jim McElwain has quit as head football coach at Colorado State to take the same position at Florida.  The chart below shows the Colorado State Rams production rank while both Steve Fairchild (2008-2011) and Jim McElwain (2012-2014) were at the helm of the program, with the vertical lines representing coaching changes.  After the chart below is some more details during McElwain's time as the head football coach at Colorado State.

Jim McElwain [2012-2014]

2012

The Rams finished the regular season at 4-8 making them post-season bowl ineligible. The Rams played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Colorado State's best win was against #96 ranked New Mexico by a score of (24-20) and their worst regular season loss was to FCS North Dakota State by a score of (7-22).  Colorado State was the #98 ranked team overall, with the #97 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2013

The Rams finished the regular season at 7-6 making them post-season bowl eligible, where they defeated #81 ranked Washington State by a score of (48-45) to finish the season with a won-loss record of 8-6.  The Rams played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was between one standard and two standard deviations higher than the average SOS for the "league". Colorado State's best regular season win was against #75 ranked Wyoming by a score of (52-22) and their worst regular season loss was to #106 ranked Tulsa by a score of (27-30).  Colorado State was the #37 ranked team overall, with the #17 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

 

2014

At the time of McElwain's departure to Florida, the Rams were 10-2.  The Rams played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS). Colorado State's best regular season win was against #34 ranked Utah State by a score of (16-13) and their worst regular season loss was to #56 ranked Air Force by a score of (24-27).  Colorado State was the #28 ranked team overall, with the #23 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Florida Fired Will Muschamp as Head Football Coach

Last month the University of Florida fired head football coach Wil Muschamp, but let him finish the regular season at the helm of the Gators football program.  After the chart is a more detailed look at the Florida Gators since 2008 (first year that I have complete FBS production data) and covers the last three season under head football coach Urban Meyer (2008-2010) and the four seasons under Wil Muschamp (2011-2014).  In the chart below, the vertical lines represent seasons that head coaches changed.

Wil Muschamp [2011-2014]

2011

The Gators finished the regular season at 6-6 making them bowl eligible, where they defeated #44 ranked Ohio State by a score of (24-17) finishing with an 7-6 win-loss record overall.  The Gators played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the average SOS for the "league". Florida's best regular season win was against #35 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (26-21) and their worst regular season loss was to #85 ranked Auburn by a score of (6-17).  Florida was the #55 ranked team overall, with the #98 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

 

2012

The Gators finished the regular season at 11-1 making them post-season bowl eligible, but were defeated by #27 ranked Louisville by a score of (23-33) to finish with a win-loss record of 11-2. The Gators played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Florida's SOS was lower than two standard deviations of the average SOS for the "league". Florida's best win was against #2 ranked Florida State by a score of (37-26) and their only regular season loss was to #4 ranked Georgia by a score of (9-17).  Florida was the #13 ranked team overall, with the #72 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2013

The Gators finished the regular season at 4-8 making them post-season bowl ineligible. The Gators played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that their SOS was between one standard and two standard deviations lower than the average SOS for the "league". Florida's best regular season win was against #53 ranked Toledo by a score of (24-6) and their worst regular season loss was to #126 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (20-26). Florida was the #79 ranked team overall, with the #114 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

 

2014

At the time of Florida's decision regarding Muschamp's future with the program, the Gators were 5-4, but Muschamp was allowed to finish the regular season, and the Gators finished at 6-5 making them bowl eligible.  The Gators played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS). Florida's best regular season win was against #8 ranked Georgia by a score of (38-20) and their worst regular season loss was to #79 ranked South Carolina by a score of (20-23).  Florida was the #51 ranked team overall, with the #93 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 14

The college football regular season has now finished week 14.  As you can see we have a new #1 team in all of college football using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com - the Oregon Ducks.

Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Oregon
2	Marshall
3	Michigan State
4	Baylor
5	TCU
6	Georgia
7	Alabama
8	Wisconsin
9	Ohio State
10	Mississippi State
11	Georgia Southern
12	Louisiana Tech
13	Mississippi
14	Memphis
15	Georgia Tech
16	Arizona
17	BYU
18	East Carolina
19	Boise State
20	Western Kentucky
21	Louisville
22	USC
23	Florida State
24	Auburn
25	Missouri

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

College Football Conference Distributions

One of the topics in my First Year Seminar on College Football is about conferences.  Economically, conferences allow schools to lower costs and create consumer demand to generate higher revenues.  Last year the Big 12 conference distributed millions of dollars to the member schools and here is an article listing the amounts distributed since 1997.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 13

The college football regular season has now finished week 13.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Oregon
3	Michigan State
4	Georgia
5	Baylor
6	Wisconsin
7	Alabama
8	TCU
9	Mississippi State
10	Ohio State
11	Georgia Southern
12	Mississippi
13	Utah State
14	Georgia Tech
15	Memphis
16	BYU
17	Auburn
18	Arizona
19	Oklahoma
20	Florida State
21	Louisville
22	Arizona State
23	East Carolina
24	Miami (Florida)
25	Western Michigan

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 12

The college football regular season is now three quarters of the way finished and the top 25 (and top 4) have had a few changes with the recent weekend results.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Oregon
3	Michigan State
4	Baylor
5	TCU
6	Wisconsin
7	Georgia
8	Alabama
9	Georgia Southern
10	Ohio State
11	Mississippi
12	Mississippi State
13	Georgia Tech
14	Miami (Florida)
15	Florida State
16	Duke
17	Louisville
18	Utah State
19	Memphis
20	Louisiana Tech
21	Auburn
22	USC
23	Arizona State
24	Western Michigan
25	Arizona

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

Payroll and Performance in MLS

One of the ideas that we focus on in our book The Wages of Wins is the relationship between team payroll and team performance.  We focus primarily on Major League Baseball as that is the sport that the payroll and performance discussion tends to get the most talk.  What we find is that using team performance (regular season winning percentage) and team payroll (relative payroll when comparing multiple seasons or total payroll for one season) we find that there is a positive relationship between team performance and team payroll.  Additionally, we find that that relationship is statistically significant over multiple seasons, meaning that from a statistical viewpoint the two variables are different from zero.  Each of these we find evidence for.  Yet in terms of the amount that the two variables have in common, we find is less than 20% over most time periods.

So, let's take a look at MLS for just the 2014 regular season.  First let me note that since there are only 19 teams in MLS this season, the number of observations is suspect.  So take the following with a statistical "grain of salt".  Eventually, I will like to come back and analyze this over a much longer time period, but it will take some time for me to get the salary data cleaned up from the pdf's on the internet. 

Thus given I am only looking at the 2014 regular season the statistical results are not very promising.  For the 2014 regular season neither base salary nor guaranteed salary are statistically significant with respect to standings points.  In other words, from a statistically viewpoint either base salary or guaranteed salary do not explain end of regular season standings points.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 11

Now that week 11 is finished, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 rankings.  Marshall has re-taken the top spot in the Top 25, followed by Baylor, TCU and Oregon.

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Baylor
3	TCU
4	Oregon
5	Georgia Southern
6	Michigan State
7	Mississippi
8	Wisconsin
9	Alabama
10	Mississippi State
11	Georgia
12	Louisville
13	Ohio State
14	Nebraska
15	Auburn
16	Duke
17	Utah State
18	LSU
19	Louisiana Tech
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Arizona State
22	UCLA
23	Florida State
24	Georgia Tech
25	USC

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

Competitive Balance in MLS

Now that the Major League Soccer regular season is over let's take a look at competitive balance in MLS for the 2014 season.  Using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance under the trinomial distribution (since ties are a part of the MLS) I find that competitive balance is higher for the 2014 regular season than the average over the last 15 seasons.  The Noll-Scully for 2014 is 1.488 which is still more competitive than the other "major" US sports leagues.  Yet the average Noll-Scully has been increasing - meaning that competitive balance is decreasing over the last five years.  Here is the Noll Scully since the 2000 regular season.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 10

We are now 10 weeks into the regular season and again we have a new #1 team (or repeat) from two weeks ago: Michigan State.  Surprises are that Georgia Southern, Marshall, Memphis and Louisana Tech are also in the top 25.  There are still six SEC teams in the top 25 (Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn, Georgia and LSU) and four Big 10 and four Big 12 teams as well.

Below is the list of Top 25 teams as of last week using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.

Rank	Team
1	Michigan State
2	Baylor
3	TCU
4	Georgia Southern
5	Marshall
6	Alabama
7	Oregon
8	Ohio State
9	Nebraska
10	Wisconsin
11	Mississippi
12	Miami (Florida)
13	Mississippi State
14	Auburn
15	Georgia
16	Oklahoma
17	East Carolina
18	Louisville
19	Duke
20	LSU
21	USC
22	Kansas State
23	Memphis
24	Louisiana Tech
25	Utah State

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 9

For some reason, I have been unable to post this week.  Most likely human error on my part.  Anyway this seems to work, so here is the top 25 at the end of last weekend using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.
Again, we have a new number one team:  Marshall Thundering Herd!

Rank	Team
1	Marshall
2	Michigan State
3	Baylor
4	TCU
5	Alabama
6	Mississippi
7	Georgia Southern
8	Oregon
9	Nebraska
10	Georgia
11	Auburn
12	Wisconsin
13	East Carolina
14	Ohio State
15	LSU
16	Mississippi State
17	Louisville
18	Duke
19	Stanford
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Florida State
22	Clemson
23	Oklahoma
24	Arkansas
25	Memphis

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

BYU AD on CFB Scheduling

Last Fall semester I taught a First Year Freshman Seminar on College Football and one of the topics we talked about was the economic reason for athletic conferences (and the incentives for schools to move between conferences).  One of the reasons I discussed was that conferences reduce transactions costs of scheduling.  Here is a really good article about BYU (independent) on football scheduling.

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2014 NCAA football season.  Here is the latest top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Notice that we have a new number one team in the Michigan State Spartans.

Rank	Team
1	Michigan State
2	East Carolina
3	Nebraska
4	Marshall
5	Baylor
6	Wisconsin
7	USC
8	Mississippi
9	Houston
10	Minnesota
11	Alabama
12	Maryland
13	Georgia
14	Memphis
15	Penn State
16	Iowa
17	Utah State
18	TCU
19	UCLA
20	Oregon
21	Northern Illinois
22	Georgia Southern
23	UAB
24	Auburn
25	LSU

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 7

Here is the latest Top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Of the top four teams, Auburn has dropped from #4 to #7 and Georgia Southern has moved into the top 4.  Yes, that is a shock to me as well.

Notice that the SEC has 7 teams in the top 25, and that Florida State is back in the top 25 at #24.

Rank	Team
1	Baylor
2	Michigan State
3	Marshall
4	Georgia Southern
5	Georgia
6	Mississippi
7	Auburn
8	East Carolina
9	Louisville
10	Alabama
11	Duke
12	Mississippi State
13	Oklahoma
14	Oregon
15	Nebraska
16	Wisconsin
17	Kentucky
18	Texas A&M
19	TCU
20	Miami (Florida)
21	LSU
22	Stanford
23	Clemson
24	Florida State
25	Notre Dame

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2