2018 NFL Payroll and Performance

Yesterday, I blogged about competitive balance in the NFL for the 2018 season.  Today I will look at the relationship between payroll and performance in the NFL for the 2018 season.  The basic idea is that teams that pay higher salaries to their players will perform better.  As sports economists, we tend to be highly skeptical of this hypothesis, but it is a persistent topic - especially in baseball.  So let's see what happens.

To do this, first I need the data.  Payroll data is from spotrac and performance data is from profootball reference.   Once that is done, the first thing I did was to calculate the correlation coefficient between payroll and performance, and the correlation between payroll and performance is NEGATIVE!!  That is a first for me.  Now, one thing we know statistically is that you should not draw conclusions from descriptive statistics, but there are those that do.  If one was to draw a conclusion (again this is not statistically valid, then those who do this would have to conclude that lower pay results in better performing NFL teams).  I doubt you will hear much from the pay and performance crowd about the 2018 NFL season.

Running a regression between performance and payroll (with robust standard errors), I get that the coefficient on payroll is negative and statistically significant as well.  This is a problem for the payroll and performance hypothesis holders.  Additionally, just for the 2018 season, payroll "explains" only 17% of team performance, so this seems to be not only the wrong sign, but also the not a lot.

2018 NFL Competitive Balance

With the end of the NFL regular season, let's take a look at how competitive the NFL was this past season.  I grabbed the NFL standings data from profootballreference, and then calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.  For those interested, here is a step-by-step guide to calculating the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure.

For this past season the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance for the entire league was 1.445, and for the AFC the Noll-Scully was 1.364 and the NFC the Noll-Scully was 1.569.

Recent historical perspective on competitive balance in the NFL.

2018 AllState Sugar Bowl

In today's AllState Sugar Bowl the Georgia Bulldogs from the Southeastern Conference face the Texas Longhorns from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Georgia Bulldogs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #15 currently ranked Florida
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #33 currently ranked LSU
Current Total Production Rank:  #5
Current Offense Production Rank:  #10
Current Defense Production Rank:  #15

Texas Longhorns (9-4) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #23 currently ranked Oklahoma
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #68 currently ranked Oklahoma State
Current Total Production Rank:  #52
Current Offense Production Rank:  #51
Current Defense Production Rank:  #50

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Rose Bowl

In today's Rose Bowl the Ohio State Buckeyes from the Big 10 Conference face the Washington Huskies from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Washington Huskies.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #12 currently ranked Michigan
ONLY Loss:  #67 currently ranked Purdue
Current Total Production Rank:  #14
Current Offense Production Rank:  #4
Current Defense Production Rank:  #76

Washington Huskies (10-3) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #24 currently ranked Utah (twice)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #64 currently ranked California
Current Total Production Rank:  #11
Current Offense Production Rank:  #30
Current Defense Production Rank:  #3

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 VRBO Citrus Bowl

In today's VRBO Citrus Bowl the Kentucky Wildcats from the Southeastern Conference face the Penn State Nittany Lions from the Big 10 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Penn State Nittany Lions.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #82 currently ranked Tennessee
Current Total Production Rank:  #35
Current Offense Production Rank:  #78
Current Defense Production Rank:  #13

Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #8 currently ranked Appalachian State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #59 currently ranked Michigan State
Current Total Production Rank:  #20
Current Offense Production Rank:  #25
Current Defense Production Rank:  #23

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Playstation Fiesta Bowl

In today's Playstation Fiesta Bowl the Louisiana State Tigers from the Southeastern Conference face the Central Florida Knights from the American Athletic Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Central Florida Knights.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Louisiana State Tigers (9-3) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #4 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #46 currently ranked Texas A&M
Current Total Production Rank:  #33
Current Offense Production Rank:  #62
Current Defense Production Rank:  #22

Central Florida Knights (12-0) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #9 currently ranked Cincinnait
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #6
Current Offense Production Rank:  #6
Current Defense Production Rank:  #40

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Outback Bowl

In today's Outback Bowl the Iowa Hawkeyes from the Big 10 Conference face the Mississippi State Bulldogs from the Southeastern Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #54 currently ranked Iowa State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #80 currently ranked Northwestern
Current Total Production Rank:  #16
Current Offense Production Rank:  #56
Current Defense Production Rank:  #8

Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #44 currently ranked Auburn
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #35 currently ranked Kentucky
Current Total Production Rank:  #4
Current Offense Production Rank:  #41
Current Defense Production Rank:  #1

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl