UPDATE: The production model correctly picked three of the four winners yesterday, with the only incorrect one being Nebraska losing to Washington. This now brings the model to 11-7 for the bowl season so far. Admittedly, the 2OT game between North Carolina and Tennessee seems to be more of a random result that a vindication of the model, I will take it. Well, let's turn our attention to the games scheduled for today.
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)
Clemson (#35) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #77 and a defense that is ranked #6. Clemson also has a SOS of 54.58, with their best win over #37 North Carolina State and their worst loss against #61 (in terms of production) Boston College.
South Florida (#62) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #94 and a defense that is ranked #12. South Florida also has a SOS of 59.25, with their best win over #20 (in overall productivity) Miami (FL) and their worst loss against #59 (in terms of the production model) Syracuse.
Thus based only on the production model Clemson is more productive than South Florida, so the production model predicts that Clemson will win the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
Sun Bowl: Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (FL) (7-5)
Notre Dame (#50) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #53 and a defense that is ranked #44. Notre Dame also has a SOS of 42.83, with their best win over #26 (in terms of the production model) Pittsburgh and their worst loss against #51 (in overall productivity) Michigan.
NOTE: Notre Dame (using my measure of strength of schedule) had the strongest strength of schedule of any team in 2010.
Miami (FL) (#20) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #37 and a defense that is ranked #16. Miami (FL) also has a SOS of 52.08, with their best win over #26 Pittsburgh and their worst loss against #79 (using the ranking from the production model) Virginia.
NOTE: I have blogged about Miami (FL)'s termination of their head coach.
Thus based only on the production model Miami (FL) is favored over Notre Dame, so the model predicts that Miami (FL) will win the 2010 Sun Bowl.
Liberty Bowl: Central Florida (10-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
Central Florida (#14) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #21 and a defense that is ranked #7. Central Florida also has a SOS of 83.00, with their best win over #60 (in terms of overall production) Houston and their worst loss against #81 (from the production model) Kansas State.
Georgia (#27) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #30 and a defense that is ranked #35. Georgia also has a SOS of 61.00, with their best win over #38 (from the production model) Kentucky and their worst loss against #86 (in terms of overall production) Colorado.
Thus based only on the production model Central Florida is favored over Georgia, so the production model forecasts that Central Florida will win the 2010 Liberty Bowl.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Florida State (9-4) vs. South Carolina (9-4)
Florida State (#22) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #39 and a defense that is ranked #18. Florida State also has a SOS of 45.33, with their best win over #20 Miami (FL) and their worst loss against #43 (from the production model) North Carolina.
South Carolina (#39) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #35 and a defense that is ranked #55. South Carolina also has a SOS of 45.08, with their best win over #4 (in terms of production) Alabama and their worst loss against #38 Kentucky.
NOTE: Two of South Carolina's losses were against #12 (in terms of production) Auburn, one in the regular season and the other in the SEC championship game.
Thus based only on the production model Florida State is the more productive team, so the model predicts that Florida State will win the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.