UPDATE: The NCAA FBS production model is 5-4 so far this bowl season.
Two bowl games tonight. The first is the Champs Sports Bowl with NC State and West Virginia and the second is the Insight Bowl with Iowa and Missouri. The tale of the tape for each bowl game is below.
Champ Sports Bowl: North Carolina State (8-4) vs. West Virginia (9-3)
North Carolina State (#37) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #42 and a defense that is ranked #37. North Carolina State also has a SOS of 57.83 with their best win against the University of Central Florida (#14 in overall production) and NC State's worst loss against #92 (in overall productivity) East Carolina.
West Virginia (#13) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #41 and a defense that is ranked #3. West Virginia also has a SOS of 66.50 with WVU's best win against #26 (in terms of the NCAA FBS productivity model) Pittsburgh and worst loss against #59 (in terms of the NCAA FBS productivity model) Syracuse.
Thus based only on the production model West Virginia is more productive than North Carolina State, so the NCAA FBS production model "picks" that West Virginia will be the winner of the 2010 Champs Sports Bowl.
Insight Bowl: Iowa (7-5) vs. Missouri (10-2)
Iowa (#17) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #23 and a defense that is ranked #10. Iowa also has a SOS of 61.25 with Iowa's best win over #24 (in terms of production) Michigan State and their worst loss against #89 (in terms of overall production) Minnesota.
Missouri (#25) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #31 and a defense that is ranked #32. Missouri also has a SOS of 63.33, with Missouri's best win against #15 (in terms of the NCAA FBS productivity model) Oklahoma and their worst loss against #75 (in terms of the NCAA FBS productivity model) Texas Tech.
Thus based only on the production model Iowa is more productive than Missouri, so the model picks Iowa to be the winner of the 2010 Insight Bowl.