Well on the first day of NCAA FBS bowls, the model goes 2-1, with Troy's offense coming to life against Ohio's defense. So, let's see how we do today in the Beef O'Brady bowl. Ah, the Beef O'Brady Bowl played in - uh wait a second - St. Petersburg Florida. I had to look that one up. Well, this might not be one of the prime bowls but it does deserved to be looked at. So here it goes. As you can see below, we have one team in the top 25% of the FBS playing, against a team that is just below the top 33% of all teams, so given the games to date, this is a bowl between two fairly good teams.
Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Louisville (6-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (8-4)
Louisville (#30) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #45 and a defense that is ranked #25. Louisville also has a SOS of 66.92, with their best win over Connecticut (#44 overall) and their worst loss against Oregon State (#88 overall).
Southern Mississippi (#42) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #19 and a defense that is ranked #68. Southern Mississippi also has a SOS of 77.53, with their best win over University of Central Florida (#14 overall) and their worst loss against East Carolina (#91 overall).
Here we have an interesting matched game, with Louisville's very good defense up against Southern Mississippi's highly productive offense. I think the winner of this on-field match up will win the game. Yet, statistically based only on the production model Louisville is more productive than Southern Mississippi, so I am picking Louisville to win the 2010 Beef O'Brady's Bowl.
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