UPDATE: With Maryland and Oklahoma State victorious yesterday, the NCAA FBS Production model is now 8-6 for the 2010-2011 bowl season. Here is the tale of the tape for the four NCAA FBS bowl games today.
Armed Forces Bowl: SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-6)
SMU (#67) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #49 and a defense that is ranked #67. SMU also has a SOS of 65.54, with their best win over #29 (based on the production model) Tulsa and their worst loss against #75 (based on the production model) Texas Tech.
Army (#52) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #50 and a defense that is ranked #49. Army also has a SOS of 68.58, with their best win over #49 (based on the production model) Kent State and their worst loss against #96 (based on the production model) Rutgers.
Thus based only on the production model Army is favored over SMU, so the model predicts that Army will win the Armed Forces Bowl for 2010.
Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)
Kansas State (#81) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #55 and a defense that is ranked #99. Kansas State also has a SOS of 63.33, with their best win over #14 (in terms of the productivity model) University of Central Florida and their worst loss against #86 (from the production model) Colorado.
Syracuse (#59) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #89 and a defense that is ranked #45. Syracuse also has a SOS of 70.50, with their best win over #13 West Virginia and their worst loss against #84 Washington.
NOTE: Two of Syracuse's seven wins were against NCAA FCS schools, so if these were eliminated, Syracuse would not even qualify to be bowl eligible.
Thus based only on the production model Syracuse is favored over Kansas State, so the production model predicts that Syracuse will win the Pinstripe Bowl.
Music City Bowl: North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)
North Carolina (#43) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #72 and a defense that is ranked #21. North Carolina also has a SOS of 60.83, with their best win over #22 (in terms of productivity) Florida State and their worst loss against #66 (in overall productivity) Georgia Tech.
Tennessee (#72) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #71 and a defense that is ranked #56. Tennessee also has a SOS of 56.67, with their best win over #38 Kentucky (in terms of the productivity model) and their worst loss against #39 (in overall productivity) South Carolina.
Thus based only on the production model North Carolina is more productive than Tennessee, so the model predicts that North Carolina will win the Music City Bowl.
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Nebraska (#19) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #20 and a defense that is ranked #19. Nebraska also has a SOS of 67.69, with their best win over #10 (in terms of the production model) Oklahoma State and their worst loss against #57 (from the production model) Texas.
Washington (#84) overall in production has an offense that is ranked #82 and a defense that is ranked #87. Washington also has a SOS of 53.17, with the Huskies best win over #45 (in terms of production) USC and their worst loss against #70 (from the production model) Arizona State.
Thus based only on the production model Nebraska is favored over Washington, so the model predicts that Nebraska will win the 2010 Holiday Bowl.