Sunday, December 1, 2024

Gus Malzahn Resigns from UCF

Yesterday it was announced that Gus Malzahn resigned as head football coach at UCF.  Malzahn was 27-24 in four season at the helm of the Knights.  Here is a look at the UCF Knights football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last nine seasons of head football coach George O'Leary (2004-2015), Scott Frost (2016-2017), Josh Heupel (2018-2020) and Gus Malzahn (2021-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the UCF Knights football program during head coach Malzahn's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Gus Malzahn [2021-2024]

2021
UCF finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated the #42 ranked Florida Gators by a score of (29-17).  The Knights played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #52 ranked Boise State by a score of (36-31) and their worst  regular season loss was to #102 ranked Navy (30-34).  UCF was the #39 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 AAC Conference Runner-Up
UCF finished the regular season at 9-3, and were played in the AAC Championship game where they lost to #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (28-45).  Then the Knights played #36 ranked Duke in their post-season bowl game and lost by a score (13-30) to finish 9-5 overall. The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (38-31) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Navy (14-17).  UCF was the #38 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
Tulsa finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #63 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (17-30) to finish the regular season at 6-7.  The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #33 ranked Boise State by a score of (18-16) and their worst regular season loss was to #121 ranked Baylor (35-36).  UCF was the #40 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
UCF finished the 2024 season at 4-8. UCF has played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  UCF's best victory was against currently #38 ranked Sam Houston State by a score of (45-14) and their current worst loss was to #104 ranked West Virginia by a score of (21-31).  UCF is currently the #55 ranked team overall, with the #48 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Mississippi
3 Penn State
4 Texas
5 Ohio State
6 Notre Dame
7 Tennessee
8 Miami (Florida)
9 Oregon
10 Boise State
11 Tulane
12 Alabama
13 SMU
14 Clemson
15 Army
16 UNLV
17 Georgia
18 Louisiana-Lafayette
19 Iowa State
20 BYU
21 Minnesota
22 Colorado
23 Memphis
24 Texas State
25 Iowa

2024 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

 

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Tulsa Fired Head Football Coach Kevin Wilson

Recently, the University of Tulsa fired head football coach Kevin Wilson after going 7-16 over nearly two seasons.  Here is a look at the Tulsa Golden Hurricane football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last three seasons of head football coach Todd Graham (2008-2010), Bill Blankenship (2011-2014), Philip Montgomery (2015-2022) and Kevin Wilson (2023-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes football program during head coach Wilson's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Kevin Wilson [2023-2024*]

2023
Tulsa finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Golden Hurricanes played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Tulsa's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  Tulsa's best win was over #64 ranked Northern Illinois by a score of (22-14) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Charlotte (26-33).  Tulsa was the #122 ranked team overall, with the #91 ranked offense and the #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
After a 3-8 start to the 2024 season Wilson was fired. Tulsa has currently played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Tulsa's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  Tulsa's best victory was against currently #77 ranked UTSA by a score of (46-45) and their current worst loss was to #131 ranked Temple by a score of (10-20).  Tulsa is currently the #124 ranked team overall, with the #58 ranked offense and the #133 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes

 

Monday, November 25, 2024

2024 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model currently has Indiana University as the most productive NCAA FBS team!

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Indiana
2 Notre Dame
3 Ohio State
4 Texas
5 Miami (Florida)
6 Mississippi
7 Tennessee
8 Penn State
9 Tulane
10 Oregon
11 Alabama
12 Boise State
13 Clemson
14 Army
15 SMU
16 Georgia
17 UNLV
18 Texas State
19 BYU
20 Texas A&M
21 Liberty
22 Louisiana-Lafayette
23 Iowa State
24 Memphis
25 James Madison

2024 Prior NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Friday, November 22, 2024

Charlotte Fires Head Football Coach Biff Poggi

Earlier this week, the University of North Carolina Charlotte fired head football coach Biff Poggi after going 6-16 over nearly two seasons.  Here is a look at the Charlotte 49ers football program since 2015 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last four seasons of head football coach Brad Lambert (2015-2018), Wil Healy (2019-2022) and Biff Poggi (2023-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Charlotte 49ers football program during head coach Poggi's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Biff Poggi [2023-2024*]

2023
Charlotte finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The 49ers played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Charlotte's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  Charlotte's best win was over #114 ranked East Carolina  and their worst loss was to #89 ranked Navy (0-14).  Charlotte was the #113 ranked team overall, with the #124 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
After a 3-7 start to the 2024 season Poggi was fired. Charlotte has currently played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Charlotte's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "leagues" average SOS.  Charlotte's best victory was against currently #39 ranked Rice by a score of (21-20) and their current worst loss was to #93 ranked South Florida by a score of (24-59).  Charlotte is currently the #124 ranked team overall, with the #114 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes

 

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Florida Atlantic Fires Head Football Coach Tom Herman

Earlier this week, Florida Atlantic (FAU) fired head football coach Tom Herman after going 6-16 over nearly two seasons.  Here is a look at the Florida Atlantic Owls football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last four seasons of head football coach Howard Schnellenberger (2008-2011), Carl Pelini (2012-2013), Charlie Partridge (2014-2016), Lane Kiffin (2017-2019), Willie Taggart (2020-2022) and Tom Herman (2023-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the FAU football program during head coach Herman's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Tom Herman [2023-2024*]

2023
FAU finished the regular season at 4-8, and were bowl ineligible.  The Owls played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Florida Atlantic's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  FAU's best win was over #74 ranked South Florida  and their worst loss was to #114 ranked East Carolina (7-22).  Florida Atlantic was the #86 ranked team overall, with the #97 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
After a 2-8 start to the 2024 season Herman was fired. Florida Atlantic has currently played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that FAU's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  Florida Atlantic's best victory was against currently #82 ranked FIU by a score of (38-20) and their current worst loss was to #128 ranked Temple by a score of (15-18).  Florida Atlantic is currently the #114 ranked team overall, with the #109 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes

 

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Massachusetts Fires Head Football Coach Don Brown

Earlier this week, Massachusetts (UMass) fired head football coach Don Brown after going 6-28 over nearly three seasons.  Here is a look at the Massachusetts football program since 2012 (the first year that UMass joined the Football Bowl Subdivision).  This time period only covers head football coach Charley Molnar (2012-2013), Mark Whipple (2014-2018), Walt Bell (2019-2021), and Don Brown (2022-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the UMass football program during head coach Brown's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Don Brown [2022-2024*]

2022
UMass finished the regular season at 1-11, and were bowl ineligible.  The Minutemen played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UMass's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UMass's only win was over FCS Stony Brook and their worst loss was to #112 ranked Arkansas State (33-35).  UMass was the #130 ranked team overall (a top 10 worst team overall in all of the FBS), with the #131 ranked offense (a top 10 worst offense in all of the FBS) and the #98 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
UMass finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Minutemen played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  UMass's best win was over #41 ranked New Mexico State and their worst loss was to #119 ranked Eastern Michigan (17-19).  UMass was the #123 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #128 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
After a 2-8 start to the 2021 season Brown was fired.  UMass has currently played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UMass's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UMass's two wins were both over FCS teams (Central Connecticut State and Wagner) and their current worst loss was to #119 Mississippi State by a score of (20-45).  UMass is currently the #109 ranked team overall, with the #123 ranked offense and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes