tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4693599455514594661.post5930865122759008053..comments2023-10-14T06:52:01.670-05:00Comments on Team Sports Analysis: Does Strength of Schedule Matter?@StaceyLBrookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11129892039482068498noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4693599455514594661.post-86912084559925662442010-12-05T16:45:29.850-06:002010-12-05T16:45:29.850-06:00Can’t argue numbers! However, I think you must pr...Can’t argue numbers! However, I think you must prepare to address the issue of statistical insignificance of strength of schedule with regards to different leagues playing at different levels and affecting the numbers. I contest that, in general, if you took a mediocre team from a powerhouse conference, such as the SEC or PAC-10, that team would have a better record playing in an inferior league, such as Conference USA. This, if true, demonstrates that the strength of a team’s opponents affects how well they will perform. Mere winning percentage or productivity may not tell you this because teams are playing the majority of their games in different leagues. If you wanted an exaggerated example, my freshman high school football team was undefeated, and our closest game was 22-6. We were not the best team in the country; we just played weak teams. While statistically insignificant in your findings, you must avoid saying strength of schedule is “overrated.” Thoughts?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01280646446051553284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4693599455514594661.post-15266733128769089842010-12-03T12:11:57.599-06:002010-12-03T12:11:57.599-06:00You have chosen to focus on 1 of the 1416 NCAA FBS...You have chosen to focus on 1 of the 1416 NCAA FBS results (looking both home and away results). <br /><br />My comment about strength of schedule takes into account all 1416 results for this year (to date – there are still 32 results scheduled, with a few more for conference championships and bowl games to be inputted). Also, in my model Fresno State is 79th (below average) so, I am not convinced that Fresno State is as good (in terms of total production) as their record would suggest, which is one of the implications of the model. <br /><br />Yet even focusing on winning percentage, when running a linear regression (with winning percentage as the dependent variable) and using total production and my measure of strength of schedule, I find that total production is statistically significant but strength of schedule is statistically insignificant (i.e. statistically it is the same as zero). The same is true if you use points scored, points surrendered and strength of schedule. Hence from a statistical perspective strength of schedule does not matter.@StaceyLBrookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11129892039482068498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4693599455514594661.post-38309318944716261482010-12-03T10:23:46.677-06:002010-12-03T10:23:46.677-06:00I don't think your findings take into account ...I don't think your findings take into account the possibility that, while, for example, the worst team in the SEC might have a comparable winning percentage to the worst team in the WAC, that SEC cellar-dweller might become bowl eligible if it competed against a WAC league schedule. Ole Miss finished 1-7 in SEC play (4-8 overall) but beat Fresno State (convincingly), which finished 5-3 in the WAC (7-4 overall). Now, I understand upsets occur. But to say strength of schedule does not when looking at a team's winning percentage seems naive to the difference in overall league or conference quality, which makes up the bulk of a team's schedule and hence greatly impacts its winning percentage.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01280646446051553284noreply@blogger.com